He has a few intl. guys on the list that I have written about before:
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Rank Player
5 Aroldis Chapman
Age: 21 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'09 team: Cuban national team Status: Free agent
Chapman is the wild card of the free-agent market, as his track record is largely unknown, he's barely thrown for clubs since defecting and he's represented by agents who haven't handled a free agent of this magnitude before. When Chapman is on, he'll show No. 1 starter stuff, with a fastball in the mid-90s (and yes, as high as 101 mph) with good tail and a mid-80s slider that will show plus with legitimate tilt, although the latter pitch isn't consistent. He does have a soft changeup but lacks feel for it and pushes it out of his hand rather than selling it with good arm speed. His command isn't good, and he's more thrower than pitcher, with a very loose arm that makes the velocity come out easily. Since defecting, he has worked on his body and scouts who've seen him recently say he's stronger and in better overall shape. He might be a No. 1 starter; he might be an ace closer; he might be a mountain of frustration. Is that worth $60 million? Or the fourth- or fifth-biggest contract of the offseason? Not to me, but he's worth some eight-figure amount because of the almost limitless upside.
10 Noel Arguelles
Age: 19 Bats: L Throws: L
Position: Starting pitcher
'09 team: None Status: Free agent
Arguelles defected from the Cuban junior national team with current Red Sox prospect Jose Iglesias in the summer of 2008 and is just now at the point where he's ready and able to sign with a major league team. Arguelles is 19 and already pitches with a solid-average fastball, although before he defected he had worked as high as 91-94 and will probably return there once he's throwing on a regular schedule again. His changeup projects better than his curveball, with the change a potentially plus pitch. What everyone notices about Arguelles is his body -- loose, lean, athletic, with good projection; his new agents took him underground for a few weeks to get him back into playing shape and the results have definitely impressed. If he was an American high school or junior college player, he'd be a solid first-rounder with a chance to be a top-10 guy and would probably be a $4 million bonus baby. As a free agent, he should easily double that.
Rank Player
25 Ryota Igarashi
Age: 30 Bats: R Throws: R
Position: Relief pitcher
'09 team: Tokyo Yakult Swallows Status: Free agent
Tokyo Yakult Swallows
2009 STATS
GM 44 IP 43.2 SV 3 BB 6 K 42 ERA 2.47
It's unclear whether Igarashi will come over from Nippon Professional Baseball this winter, but he's eligible to do so and has expressed interest in playing in the majors in the past. Igarashi is a slightly wild power reliever who missed all of 2007 and part of 2008 due to Tommy John surgery, but has fully recovered and handled a regular workload in 2009. He has a very quick arm and has been clocked at 98 mph, although he'll probably pitch at 93-96 in a one-inning role in the U.S. His best off-speed pitch is a mid- to upper-80s splitter with good bottom, and he can throw the pitch for strikes instead of waiting for hitters to chase it in the dirt. He has some deception in his delivery, and he's almost a "drop-and-drift" guy without great forward momentum towards the plate.
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Couple of notes -
Arguelles: the comment on his "nice lithe body" is a bit strange given that he was taken off the market for a month because he had gotten fat and disappointed at his workouts. There is no reason to believe that he won't regain his velo range once he gets back into to shape and starts pitching competitively again - he last pitched in the summer of 2008 when he defected. As a LHP with international experience, he has a lot of value and would likely start off in highA.
Igarashi: Law overstates his velo, as he touched 98 years ago before his injury and will be 31 next year. However, he could be viewed as a setup guy who pitches 92-94 so he could be worth a shot with TX. He would also give TX some Japan clout which could always prove useful during next year's NPB draft...
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
2010 Roster Projections
I've added my 2010 system-wide roster projections to the sidebar. If you have trouble accessing them on google docs, just leave a comment...
Only Kirkman and Phillips were added to the 40 today. Mike Ballard, Beau Jones, Brennan Garr and Chad Tracy were left unprotected.
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Only Kirkman and Phillips were added to the 40 today. Mike Ballard, Beau Jones, Brennan Garr and Chad Tracy were left unprotected.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Minor League FA
The following players filed for minor league free agency on 11/9:
AJ Murray, Travis Metcalf, Majewski, Gac, Mauro Gomez, Casey Benjamin, Adam Fox, Bryan Corey, Lizard, Ragsdale, Peguero, Brian Gordan, Huffman, Leone, Hinckley, Kevin Thompson, Josh Rupe
MiL FAs who have re-signed (11/13):
Jose Jumbo Diaz, Adalberto Flores, Guilder Rody, Kevin Richardson (11/1)
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AJ Murray, Travis Metcalf, Majewski, Gac, Mauro Gomez, Casey Benjamin, Adam Fox, Bryan Corey, Lizard, Ragsdale, Peguero, Brian Gordan, Huffman, Leone, Hinckley, Kevin Thompson, Josh Rupe
MiL FAs who have re-signed (11/13):
Jose Jumbo Diaz, Adalberto Flores, Guilder Rody, Kevin Richardson (11/1)
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Friday, November 13, 2009
News and notes
AFL Today:
DGut throws 3 changeups(!!) today in his 3 innings. He clearly reads this here blog.
Scheppers implodes in his inning.
Teagarden is vying to be sent back to AAA in '10 (0-5, 4so, .158).
Moe walks 3 times with an rbi.
Here is a nice post-game article with lotsa Lil' Lemon quotes. It confirms my suspicion that he is playing CF due to a lack of OF and the opportunity to get more at bats.
Here's a puff piece on Nelson Cruz.
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DGut throws 3 changeups(!!) today in his 3 innings. He clearly reads this here blog.
Scheppers implodes in his inning.
Teagarden is vying to be sent back to AAA in '10 (0-5, 4so, .158).
Moe walks 3 times with an rbi.
Here is a nice post-game article with lotsa Lil' Lemon quotes. It confirms my suspicion that he is playing CF due to a lack of OF and the opportunity to get more at bats.
Here's a puff piece on Nelson Cruz.
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Chapman, Lemon
Here is an AP interview with Aroldis Chapman (in which he says he throws 5 pitches- yeah right).
Also, Sickel's take on Lemon, who he was happy to comment on, but who didn't see him in the AFL, only during his second half swoon:
Marcus Lemon
Ceiling: utility infielder or starting second baseman? And if you happen to have seen him in CF, do tell….
lemon
didn’t see him in Arizona. I did see in him August, and I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Good athlete though, hustles.
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Also, Sickel's take on Lemon, who he was happy to comment on, but who didn't see him in the AFL, only during his second half swoon:
Marcus Lemon
Ceiling: utility infielder or starting second baseman? And if you happen to have seen him in CF, do tell….
lemon
didn’t see him in Arizona. I did see in him August, and I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Good athlete though, hustles.
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Badler's corner
Excerpts from Badler's free notebook on Scheppers and a salutary warning:
"• Tanner Scheppers has created buzz by pitching in the mid- to high-90s for Surprise. A likely top 10 pick out of Fresno State in the 2008 draft prior to hurting his shoulder that April, Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates when he slipped to 48th overall in the draft that year. After rehab and pitching for the St. Paul Saints in independent ball this spring, he signed with the Rangers for $1.25 million as the 44th overall selection.
One scout pointed out that Scheppers still has a hitch in the back of his delivery, but he’s flashed plenty of arm strength in his brief appearances.
“He’s got a pretty good idea of what he’s trying to do, especially for not being in pro ball,” Phelps said. “I know he played one year in the independent league after he got drafted, but for a young kid he’s pretty mature and he’s got a pretty good idea of what he’s doing. He’s got that plus fastball, he’s got good angle with it. He doesn’t have the command with it yet, but when he gets the command, he could be something pretty special.
“With that arm speed, he’s got a curveball that has big bite and can be a plus pitch for him. The changeup he’s still developing, he’s still trying to trust and use it in the game. When you’ve got that big plus fastball a lot of times it’s tough for him to start working in that changeup, but I think over the next few years he’ll develop that.”
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"Finally, a word of caution for any conclusions to draw from the AFL, be it from the numbers or first-hand observations. The AFL is a great way to congregate prospects in a relatively small area. While at a typical minor league game there might be just a few future big leaguers on the field, almost everyone here in the AFL is worth bearing down on.
Still, from seeing some of these players during the regular season compared to now, and from talking to scouts about the challenges of AFL evaluations, putting too much stock into what you see at the AFL can be dangerous.
The first week of the season can be especially deceiving with hitters and pitchers coming back from a long layoff. Scouts who have been around the league for a while say that several players’ mechanics look sharper than they did the first week of the season. Velocities have greater variance here the first week of the season as pitchers are getting back into their routines, and throughout the entire AFL season because they throw in shorter stints than they do in the regular season.
Then there are other players who simply look tired. I’ve heard a few players now who said they’re just looking forward to having the season end and are ready to go home at this point.
One other major variable affecting the hitters is that they don’t get to play every day. During the minor league season, any player who is a prospect is going to be in the lineup every day. That just doesn’t happen in the AFL, where every organization is going to want their position prospects to play as many games as possible. They might take batting practice, but not facing live pitching every day the way they’re used to can throw some guys off.
So while the AFL is a great tool for evaluators, it’s important to remember not to get too carried away with what happens here."
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"• Tanner Scheppers has created buzz by pitching in the mid- to high-90s for Surprise. A likely top 10 pick out of Fresno State in the 2008 draft prior to hurting his shoulder that April, Scheppers opted not to sign with the Pirates when he slipped to 48th overall in the draft that year. After rehab and pitching for the St. Paul Saints in independent ball this spring, he signed with the Rangers for $1.25 million as the 44th overall selection.
One scout pointed out that Scheppers still has a hitch in the back of his delivery, but he’s flashed plenty of arm strength in his brief appearances.
“He’s got a pretty good idea of what he’s trying to do, especially for not being in pro ball,” Phelps said. “I know he played one year in the independent league after he got drafted, but for a young kid he’s pretty mature and he’s got a pretty good idea of what he’s doing. He’s got that plus fastball, he’s got good angle with it. He doesn’t have the command with it yet, but when he gets the command, he could be something pretty special.
“With that arm speed, he’s got a curveball that has big bite and can be a plus pitch for him. The changeup he’s still developing, he’s still trying to trust and use it in the game. When you’ve got that big plus fastball a lot of times it’s tough for him to start working in that changeup, but I think over the next few years he’ll develop that.”
#####################
"Finally, a word of caution for any conclusions to draw from the AFL, be it from the numbers or first-hand observations. The AFL is a great way to congregate prospects in a relatively small area. While at a typical minor league game there might be just a few future big leaguers on the field, almost everyone here in the AFL is worth bearing down on.
Still, from seeing some of these players during the regular season compared to now, and from talking to scouts about the challenges of AFL evaluations, putting too much stock into what you see at the AFL can be dangerous.
The first week of the season can be especially deceiving with hitters and pitchers coming back from a long layoff. Scouts who have been around the league for a while say that several players’ mechanics look sharper than they did the first week of the season. Velocities have greater variance here the first week of the season as pitchers are getting back into their routines, and throughout the entire AFL season because they throw in shorter stints than they do in the regular season.
Then there are other players who simply look tired. I’ve heard a few players now who said they’re just looking forward to having the season end and are ready to go home at this point.
One other major variable affecting the hitters is that they don’t get to play every day. During the minor league season, any player who is a prospect is going to be in the lineup every day. That just doesn’t happen in the AFL, where every organization is going to want their position prospects to play as many games as possible. They might take batting practice, but not facing live pitching every day the way they’re used to can throw some guys off.
So while the AFL is a great tool for evaluators, it’s important to remember not to get too carried away with what happens here."
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Moves and Notes
Travis Metcalf and Mike Henckley declare free agency.
Is it time to worry about MaxRam yet? His batting average has dropped 30pts to .207 (.189 vs rhp, 27g) during an 8game slump ( .083 ). Remember that this is the same league that he won the MVP in last winter. Given that he played in 50 games last winter after a full season, and came out of the league with 1 or 2 wrist injuries that shelved him for much of 2009, I'm not sure I like the idea of him playing again this fall. Why not give him some time off to get healthy? Given the uncertainty about his health (and all of the possible bad habits that may have emerged attempting to compensate for his injuries while playing), I'm not sure it is time to panic yet if his VZWL performance falls flat.
However, his prospect rating has definitely taken a hit in my book, as I'm not sure he can be considered a catcher proper anymore given that he has essentially missed a year of his development at the position, perhaps the most critical year of his career given how ready he was thought to be as a hitter along with the failure to convince many he had the chops to remain at the position. I think he is most likely a DH now as no team is going to want to wait for him for 2-3 years at the ML level to develop as a catcher going on 26 - Salty is an ugly reminder of what poor ML catching looks like when your skill set is not adequate to the task.
After a disastrous 0-5 outing with 4 strikeouts, Lemon was batting .166 with zero xbh after his first 6 AFL games, continuing a ruinous second half for him. He appeared overmatched in a league which was about the same skill level as Frisco. The coaching staff apparently saw a few things and helped him make some adjustments of the next 5 days in which he did not appear in a game. Over the last 9 games(34ab) since his return, he is batting .441 with 2 doubles 2 triples 2 homers 9 rbi and 8 runs with a walk and 2 strikeouts. IF his bat comes around next year, he has a chance as a starting second baseman it would seem, but he did not have a good year in the end. I wonder if scouts think he can play SS well enough to land a utility infielder role, primarily at second, sometimes at SS; His fringy range might be a problem. If not, this would definitely crimp his chances to make a roster some day as he could succeed only in the capacity of a starter and all of the stars would have to align. I seem to say this every year on the kid, but I think we might have a pretty definitive answer around 8/1/2010, when you hope he might have been in AAA for a month or two by that time...
PRWL started yesterday. The roster sizes are enormous as they had to integrate the Cangrejeros' players throughout the league due to the disbanding of that team over a stadium use dispute. So, don't expect to see them get a lot of playing time. I was hoping that Miguelito would get a fair amount of time just to see if he can handle what will be AA-AAA pitching with lots of professional experience. As I stated previously, Sierra and Torres are likely considered reserve players there to be mentored. Also, I am very happy to see Mike Ballard there as he is the lefty in the system who might be the most likely candidate for a loogy role next year (unless Kiker emerges in ST, and he would be more than a loogy hopefully). AJ Murray didn't deserve the hype. Now that Hinckley is a FA, I think Ballard gets the call for a 40 spot over Murray.
Criollos:
Kevin Torres
Miguel Velazquez
Ruben Sierra Jr
Pudge
Michael Ballard
Leones:
Adalberto Flores
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Is it time to worry about MaxRam yet? His batting average has dropped 30pts to .207 (.189 vs rhp, 27g) during an 8game slump ( .083 ). Remember that this is the same league that he won the MVP in last winter. Given that he played in 50 games last winter after a full season, and came out of the league with 1 or 2 wrist injuries that shelved him for much of 2009, I'm not sure I like the idea of him playing again this fall. Why not give him some time off to get healthy? Given the uncertainty about his health (and all of the possible bad habits that may have emerged attempting to compensate for his injuries while playing), I'm not sure it is time to panic yet if his VZWL performance falls flat.
However, his prospect rating has definitely taken a hit in my book, as I'm not sure he can be considered a catcher proper anymore given that he has essentially missed a year of his development at the position, perhaps the most critical year of his career given how ready he was thought to be as a hitter along with the failure to convince many he had the chops to remain at the position. I think he is most likely a DH now as no team is going to want to wait for him for 2-3 years at the ML level to develop as a catcher going on 26 - Salty is an ugly reminder of what poor ML catching looks like when your skill set is not adequate to the task.
After a disastrous 0-5 outing with 4 strikeouts, Lemon was batting .166 with zero xbh after his first 6 AFL games, continuing a ruinous second half for him. He appeared overmatched in a league which was about the same skill level as Frisco. The coaching staff apparently saw a few things and helped him make some adjustments of the next 5 days in which he did not appear in a game. Over the last 9 games(34ab) since his return, he is batting .441 with 2 doubles 2 triples 2 homers 9 rbi and 8 runs with a walk and 2 strikeouts. IF his bat comes around next year, he has a chance as a starting second baseman it would seem, but he did not have a good year in the end. I wonder if scouts think he can play SS well enough to land a utility infielder role, primarily at second, sometimes at SS; His fringy range might be a problem. If not, this would definitely crimp his chances to make a roster some day as he could succeed only in the capacity of a starter and all of the stars would have to align. I seem to say this every year on the kid, but I think we might have a pretty definitive answer around 8/1/2010, when you hope he might have been in AAA for a month or two by that time...
PRWL started yesterday. The roster sizes are enormous as they had to integrate the Cangrejeros' players throughout the league due to the disbanding of that team over a stadium use dispute. So, don't expect to see them get a lot of playing time. I was hoping that Miguelito would get a fair amount of time just to see if he can handle what will be AA-AAA pitching with lots of professional experience. As I stated previously, Sierra and Torres are likely considered reserve players there to be mentored. Also, I am very happy to see Mike Ballard there as he is the lefty in the system who might be the most likely candidate for a loogy role next year (unless Kiker emerges in ST, and he would be more than a loogy hopefully). AJ Murray didn't deserve the hype. Now that Hinckley is a FA, I think Ballard gets the call for a 40 spot over Murray.
Criollos:
Kevin Torres
Miguel Velazquez
Ruben Sierra Jr
Pudge
Michael Ballard
Leones:
Adalberto Flores
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