Monday, March 16, 2009

Bullpen Briefs...

(actually published on 3/24 BTW)

Couple of items.

Evan Grant confirmed that Rupe has no remaining options. So any idle roster speculation that depended on Lucas' option breakdown chart was, well, idle. His spot on the 2009 roster was essentially guaranteed after the end of last season. In addition, we learned a couple of weeks ago that Eyre does indeed have options, which increases the likelihood that he will begin the season in AAA. He needs innings after his injury, but has been pitching well enough to earn a roster spot if it came to that.

The FWST reported that Moscoso would likely be groomed for a relief role after he was reassigned to Frisco in the first cuts of Rangers' camp. If true - and I am not convinced that we won't see him begin the season in the AA rotation - I fail to see how this move would maximize his benefit to the Rangers long-term rotation needs.

I have to think that such a decision, if true, has to be based on factors external to Moscoso's projection as a starter. It may very well be based on the performance of the bullpen during spring training, especially some of the vets that were brought in. Donnelly, Guardado, and Turnbow have not been very impressive, with the former two dealing with injuries, and Turnbow still showing control problems, though, admittedly, he didn't seem to come to camp at 100%. Also, a couple of longshots proved noncompetitive for bullpen roles, namely, Diamond, Torres and Bannister. All three exhibited severe command issues and will start the season in the minors and none of the three have pitched above AA.

In addition, if you look at the minor leaguers who might be called up, say, by midseason, to help the bullpen in case of injuries, there are still more questions. Garr, Laughter, and Strop have yet to pitch in AAA and Strop might begin the first month of the season in extended building up arm strength after his summer elbow surgery. Laughter is my "kometani" candidate for 2009 (along with Lueke) to flame out, having one of the worst 2nd halves of any Rangers' pitcher in 2008. Garr was slowed by shoulder issues but had a dominating final month and has appeared in a cactus league game so s/b 100% to start the season but you never know.

If you look at the bullpen on these three levels -struggling vets, near-ready prospects, and mid-season callups - Strop and Moscoso emerge as the only candidates who have the capacity to impact the bullpen with the dominant, swing-and-miss stuff of future set-up men or closers (in Strop's case). So if you look at it on a more general level in terms of mid-season bullpen needs, this move makes sense. Most of the prospects to fulfill future roles in the bullpen, say in 2010, will not have even pitched above AA to begin the season: Diamond, Strop, Moscoso, Bannister, Torres, Laughter, Garr. All of them have the talent to progress quickly, but all have some issues that they must overcome to make it to the Majors by season's end, much less at mid-season when the Rangers will likely have spots to fill. Strop and Moscoso are not only the most likely to help the soonest but the most likely to excel as elite bullpen arms among this group.

OK, so, this makes sense in general as a justification to convert Moscoso to a bullpen role now. However, the injury calculus could also have been the primary reason for the decision (if true). I tend to discount this as I don't believe TX would have traded laird for a AA reliever and DSL starter. I think their scouts believed that Moscoso could, should and would be considered a starting pitching prospect first and foremost; Moscoso was the centerpiece of the trade, Moscoso the starting pitcher. I have to think that TX scouts believed he could be a starter, but it is always possible that they changed their assessment of him after seeing him pitch over the last month. I doubt it but it is possible.

During camp, it was revealed that Moscoso was reintegrating his split finger into his repertoire. Before his sugery (he has a slight undersurface tear in his rotator cuff) towards the end of his 2005 season in short season ball, he used this pitch but stopped using it when he came back at the end of the 2006 season. The split might make him a better candidate for the bullpen, I don't know. All the speculation aside, I think he should be given every chance to prove he cannot be a starter. When and if that time comes, well, move him to the pen and promote him to AAA. If this kid has the stuff to become a better starting prospect than Diamond, Mendoza, Gabbard, Hunter and Feldman then this is just a no-brainer.

3 comments:

  1. On March 15 I posted a note over at the BBTIA forum that Daniels was quoted as saying Moscoso would start the year in the bullpen, and had pitched out of the stretch exclusively that day. This was from the FWST game notes.

    In my opinion, one or both of two things is true:
    1. the organization feels that Moscoso is a potential game changer in late innings and wants to groom him in that role.
    2. They only said he would BEGIN the year in the bullpen, leaving the door open for him starting after they've had a chance to work with him a bit longer.

    I think #1 is more likely. My gut feeling is that he would be most successful picking his best couple of pitches and honing them instead of trying to get control of a bigger repertoire. I know that you leave a guy in the starter role until they make it obvious they're not a starter, but his situation is a bit unique with his age and injury history. Why wait around for him to develop control and secondary pitches that might never materialize?

    Get him in the big league bullpen sometime in the next 13 months and let him have some fun.

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  2. Found it (3/14):

    Guillermo Moscoso, one of two pitchers acquired from Detroit for catcher Gerald Laird, threw two innings in the intrasquad game exclusively out of the stretch. Daniels said the right-hander will probably start the season pitching out of the bullpen.

    I kinda like the notion contained in your second point. I can't remember who interviewed him (JP or Cole?) in ST, but Moscoso said he had no feel for his change at that time and, in addition, was reintroducing his split. So it might be that both he and the Rangers staff have endeavored to take a step back, make a few changes, break out the split, have him pitch out of the stretch and see how things go over the subsequent 4 weeks and the beginning of season. The quote does seem to suggest flexibility.

    Despite my desire to develop him as a starter, I am pretty confident in the staff to figure out the most effective role for him. Sending him to the bullpen for the entire year also wouldn't preclude them from stretching him out as a starter next season if they thought he could handle it.

    I'm real interested to see what he and Strop can do this season and if they can stay healthy. After having the beginning of his season delayed in both 07 and 08 due to shoulder fatigue, this yr marks the first time since 2005 that Moscoso has not been sidelined to begin the season, knock on wood.

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  3. Oh, I forgot to add, that, although he has the talent to make an impact on the bullpen this season, I fear that he won't even if he could. Unless FranFran or CJ (maybe even Madrigal) are down, Moscoso would be stuck in 6th/7th-inning purgatory mopping up meltdowns like Madrigal was last year.

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