Friday, June 12, 2009

I've updated the short-season rosters

to reflect the 19 picks who I think are near locks to sign.

Among the other 32 picks, there are 20 HS picks between 10 and 49, only a handful of whom will sign, maybe 3. The most likely to sign are the ones who are willing to accept 3rd-4th round money, and those are going to be the ones chosen in the 10th - 20th round. Maybe there will be an outlier in the 20-50 range but I doubt it. The single sophomore is unlikely to sign either.

The remaining players most likely to sign are some of those among the 7 junior college guys and the 4 juniors. Some of these guys will be followed by TX scouts in various summer leagues like the Cape, so they will arrive no sooner than the end of July if they pique the ranger's interest enough to be offered a contract.

All in all, I'd say there will be about 7 more signings for an estimated class of 26 or so, compared to a class of about 35 last year. There is simply no room for a big draft class any more.

These kids will be signing their contracts over the next week and the rosters likely won't be announced until the days of the first games. Scheppers and Purke likely won't sign until midnight on 8/17 so the next reports you hear on these two will likely be during instructs in October, and who knows, maybe they will send Scheppers down to one of the winter leagues to get enough innings to compete for a rotation spot in 2010. It really is in Schepper's best interest to make it to Spokane (or some other club) by the end of June. The last thing he needs is another long break between pitching in games after losing a year already.

Spokane opens its 76 game schedule on 6/20 - 9/6 while the AZL club plays a 56 game schedule, 6/21-8/29.



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4 comments:

  1. I saw that you included 32nd round pick HS OF Reggie Williams in your roster projections, but did not include Braden Tullis. Do you plan on giving us a little insight on why you think Williams will sign, and how likely you think others are to sign or not. I also have a gut feeling Lane might be willing to sign based on quotes leaking out and his decision to skip football and focus solely on baseball his senior year. If he was expecting to go in the first five rounds, then it seems like he would accept 3rd or 4th round money to start his baseball career.

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  2. for what its worth, I found this link, stating that Tullis plans to sign. Obviously nothing official...

    http://www.idahostatesman.com/sports/story/798277.html

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  3. and here's a nice article on 44th round choice Tyler Christman:

    http://www.theitem.com/article/20090612/ITSPORTS01/706129982/-1/ITSPORTS

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  4. Thanks for the links Anonymous; I will move Tullis over as an anticipated sign.

    As for Williams it was just a guess on my part but he is a really tough read due to his odd background the last 2 years. BA ranked him as the fastest player in the draft but his baseball skill set is a bit of a mystery as he did not play a normal JR/SR HS year. He played with his dad's semi-pro/traveling team and who knows who they played against. In addition, his power #s are meager, so his only plus tool appears to be his speed and plus raw power potential that has yet to materialize.

    Based on his age - he will play next year as a 20 yo freshman - and lake of traditional experiece vs established competition, the quickest way to hasten his development would be to sign a pro contract. However, if he is low-balled he will be SO eligible in 2 years so he has some leverage. If the ranges like him, I bet he signs for 3/4 money.

    As for Lane, Jason Cole over at lonestardugout.com spoke to him on the phone, and he got the feeling that he would be a pretty tough sign. He has a 2-sport scholarship which is pretty uncommon. I wouldnt think TX would pay him now what he might be worth as a Jr eligible player for either sport in 3 years.

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