Friday, September 25, 2009

Top 40 draft

as a work in progress though I don't really care about an "overall" system rankings. Comparing apples to oranges really has little utility so when "ranking" players you should rank pitchers to pitchers and hitters to hitters, and each of those grouped by role. What does it really mean to say that Feliz is #1 and Smoak is #2 compared to one another? Nothing if you ask me, how could it? Wouldn't it make more sense to rank players in terms of how they project to measure up as a major leaguer at their position? So say, all-star, above-average, average, replacement, utility? What interests me are individual valuations that take into account not only ceiling but the likelihood that it can be realized by heavily weighing injuries, weaknesses, talent/skills, and character in addition to performance trends. I've started this process by breaking down the rankings by roles in my worksheets. I'll update them again sometime after instructs/AFL.

1 Neftali Feliz 1
2 Justin Smoak First
3 Martin Perez 1_2
4 Julio Borbon Center
5 Tanner Scheppers 2_3
6 Omar Poveda 3
7 Guillermo Moscoso 3
8 Pedro Strop bp1
9 Wilmer Font 2_3
10 Robbie Ross 2_3
11 Kennil Gomez 3
12 Michael Kirkman 3
13 Blake Beavan 3
14 Michael Main 2_3
15 Tony Mendonca Third
16 Luis Sardinas Short
17 Jurickson Profar Short
18 Tony Doyle 3
19 Richard Bleier 3
20 Tim Moreland DH/1B
21 Max Ramirez DH/Catcher
22 Miguel Velazquez Right
23 Jacob Brigham 3
24 Greg Golson Center
25 Wilfredo Boscan 3
26 Joe Wieland 3
27 Edwin Garcia Short
28 Tomas Telis Catcher
29 Carlos Melo 2_3 (or closer)
30 Robbie Erlin 3
31 Kasey Kiker bp2
32 Chad Tracy First
33 D-Gut (Gutierrez) 3
34 Trevor Hurley 3_5
35 Carlos Pimentel 3_5
36 Braden Tullis 3_5
37 Chadwick Bell 3_5
38 Engel Beltre Center
39 E. Escobar 5
40 Marcus Lemon Second

Key: Starters (1-5); Closer, Setup (1,2)
Notes: Main - Moves into top 10 after he remains healthy and pitches well for a full season or at least 100ip.
D-Gut- Moves into 15-20 range after a full season without being arrested/suspended.
Velazquez- moves into top 15 if he stays out of trouble for a full year and moves as quickly as he should.
Kiker - profiles as a lefty setup guy not a starter. With his wicked changeup, he could succeed in that role, particularly if he adds a bit of velo coming out of the pen.

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