Thursday, December 10, 2009

Rule 5 today

The Rule 5 is today, and while I normally follow it obsessively like all things related to prospects, this year, meh. Here is a BA summary of the picks from 2008 and a Wiki post that lists the picks for the last 5 years or so. The BA piece gives a thumbnail profile of the players selected in the ML phase, while the Wiki piece is cool because it gives a pretty thorough update on what happened to the players after the draft (2008-2006).

In the Major league phase, the Nats are rumored to take the NYY LHP Kroenke for, well, the NYY while the pirates were rumored to have switched their interest from a position player to an unnamed RHP. TX will take at least one and possibly 2 players (#3 from Baltimore, and our pick at 17 more or less). If they take two they will need to make a roster move once our new roster additions are finalized (Lowell, Harden, Ray in; Millwood, MAxRam out). Think German.

I have no clue who they might be interested in and the lists that I have seen comprise about 30 players of interest. They might take a (RH) 5th OF type who can play an AA CF. There are a couple of catcher/DH types of interest and maybe a couple utility infielders. The best bets are bullpen arms and there are quite a few of interest but I have to think that whoever TX takes they will have at least played at the AA level for most of 2009 (and perhaps in the AFL or Winter ball).

Players that I like: Aaron Breit, RHP (pen), 23.9 (4/1), HighA (if you believe in him in the pen and in his makeup); Johan Pino, RHP (starter/pen), 25.3 (4/1), AAA (back rotation candidate but probably only a middle/long reliever in the pne); Zach Kroenke, LH reliever, AAA, 26.1 (4/1);
Kevin Whelan, RH reliever, 26.2, AAA (if you can fix his command); Chad Thall, 24.7, LH reliever, AA; Corey Wimberly utility inf/of, 26.4, AA (only if he can play AA def. in cf and ss right now); Craig Baker, setup, RHP, HighA, 25.1; Edgar Osuna, 22.3, LHP (sp/rp), AA; Edgar Garcia, RHP (pen), 22.5 AA/A+; Jason Rice, highA, 23.9, bullpen; Archimedes Caminero, setup, 22.7, RHP (pitched mostly in SS in 09 with only 14ip in low A - a lot of buzz for his arm but has next to no experience).

Prime candidates that TX might lose: Tracy, Osuna, Ballard, Beau Jones, Brennan Garr.

I would expect TX to take 2-4 players in the minor league portion of the draft, the AAA portion (there are rarely any players taken in the AA and A phases). AAA, AA and A+ all need 4th OF/DH types (think Majewski or Steven Murphy types) for depth while AAA and and A+ need utility infielders. I wouldn't expect any pitchers to be taken.


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