Saturday, March 13, 2010

32(00) (Contrapuntal) Things

AS a counterpoint to Newberg's perennial precamp giddiness, I'm reposting this November entry (changes italicized):

Monday, November 23, 2009
Just for fun -

#1 underrated player TX-DSL2= Matt Harrison

Most likely to make debut by 8/1: Schepp (pen), DGut(pen), Smoak, MaxRam (DH - I throw him in though his debut was in 2008), Poveda (starter, injury replacement- likely won't be needed in that role with the depth we have), Kiker (setup if his command returns, his velo projects to improve out of the pen and if his CB becomes more consistent vs LHB - in the end, likely spends the whole year in AAA as a starter as he has lots to work on); Alexi Ogando (pen); Michael Kirkman (pen)

Breakout players: Golson (my 2010 reach), Brigham; Alexi Ogando; Michael Kirkman, Pedro Strop, Justin Miller
Most underrated: (Timothy Smith), Sardinas, Mendonca, Doyle, Bleier, Easy Eddie Garcia, Carlos Melo, Kirkman, Trevor Hurley, Robbie Erlin, Poveda, Moscoso (as a starter), Ruben Sierra Jr., Strong, McBride,
Most overlooked: Alex Gonzalez, Trevor Hurley, Easy Eddie Garcia
Sleepers: Justin Miller, Carlos Oropesa, Robert Morillo, Carlos Ramirez, Santiago Chirino Hill, Zeke Rijo, Juan Grullon, TK Ahn, Kevin Arrendell, Jose Monegro, Chris Matlock, Keith Campbell, J. Gunter, A. Mendoza, R. Rojas, L.Gil, J. Mavare
Ceilings limited by character: Velazquez, DGut
Celings limited by chronic injury: Main, MaxRam, NeRa, DGut
Ceilings limited by possible makeup issues (defined broadly): (Madrigal), Font, Kiker, Castillo, Beau Jones, NeRa, MaxRam, Clark Murphy, Beltre
Players who don't follow "the plan": Beltre, Kiker, DGut
Slowest starter, Fastest finisher: Chad Tracy, Eric Hurley
Most likely to be a ML platoon player of some sort: MaxRam, Moe
Starter most likely to be moved to pen (eventually): Kennil Gomez(shoulder), Kasey Kiker(makeup/curveball), DGut(makeup/changeup), NeRa (makeup/changeup)
The better Grullon: Juan
Most likely to implode: Pedro Strop, Jumbo Diaz, 2009 Frisco bullpen
Most likely to explode: Pedro Strop
Shape most unlike a prospect: Round (Jumbo Diaz)
Highest proportion of breathless reportage: Moreland, Telis, Tullis, Alvarez, Escobar, Matt Thompson, Kiker, Mendonca (in the roundly negative), Joe Wieland, Zach Phillips
Most overrated: Beltre, Kiker (as starter), Lemon, GG (G. Grullon), Guillermo Pimentel, AJ Murray, Tatusko, Matt Thompson, Richard Alvarez, (Manny Pena) Laughter, (Lueke)
Most undeserved patience during the development process: J. Arias
Player who received the least patience: J. Vallejo, German Duran
Most likely to spend 2 years at every level (and still be considered prospects by many): Michael Schlact, Zach Phillips
Most likely to spend 3 years at one level: Mauro Gomez, Ian Gac
Minor league coaching future: Cody Podraza
Least pitchability: Geuris Grullon, Reiner Bermudez, Justin King, Justin Gutsie, Kevin Castner
Least hittability: Braxton Lane, Riley Cooper, Engel Beltre
Least likely to appear in full season ball: Riley Cooper (NFL), Miggie de Los Santos (Visa)
Most likely to play in Japan: Alexi Ogando, Omar Beltre
Least Likely to make it out of AA: Engel Beltre, Leury Garcia
Players I like to root for: Chad Tracy, Renny Osuna, Trevor Hurley, Justin Miller, Vinny DiFazio, Easy Eddie, Chris Gradoville, Kevin Richardson, Cody Eppley, Chris Matlock, Gentry, Nam, Roark, Lawson, Butler, Eddie Martinez, Morrison, Campbell, Hunter, Monegro, Miggie, William Connor, Taylor Vail, Jared Prince
Most intriguing back-end relievers: Justin Miller, Johnny Gunter, Fabio Castillo, Alexi Ogando, Omar Beltre
Most intriguing relievers we know next to nothing about: Kevin Arrendell, Jose Monegro, Francisco Mendoza
Most intriguing ceiling: Carlos Melo (#2 starter or closer)
Pitchers who might still have starting in their futures: johnny Gunter, Keith Campbell, Kyle Ocampo, NeRA
Most mysterious switch to the bullpen (2009): Kyle Ocampo
Biggest question mark: Clark Murphy, Tim Murphy
Dark horse superstar: Ruben Sierra Jr.
Talent evaluation gone awry (moves)? Jose Vallejo, German Duran
Talent evaluation gone awry (draft/Intl)? Evan Reed (3), Tim Murphy (3), Matt West (2), NeRa (1s), Esdras Abreu (550k), Blake Beavan (1)
Most overpaid: Richard Alvarez (per Cole: 800K), (Matt Thompson, 600K)
Most intriguing Prospect least likely to engender any discussion at all: Adalberto Flores
Player least likely to be his former self: Eric Hurley
DSL players most likely to make US debut in Spokane: Randol Rojas, Leonel Gil, Jose Mavare, Francisco Mendoza, Anyenil Mendoza, Denny Peralta, Kelvin de Leon
Players most likely to break into my top 10 by mid-season: DGut, Main, Velazquez, Mendonca, Kirkman, Brigham
Most likely sit plus with their fastball (at its best): Melo (reportedly, 92-95+97), Dgut(pen, 93-95+97), Brigham (93-95), Ross (93-95), Perez (93-95), Castillo(pen 92-95+97), Gunter(pen +95), Main (+96), Moscoso (93-94 at his best as a starter with plus movement/deception), Trevor Hurley (hard sinker, 90-93, GB and SM pitch) (Matt Harrison, 92-96+98)
those sitting plus-plus with theirs? Schepp, Feliz, Font, Strop, Bermudez, Jumbo, Ogando
Plus fastball least likely to matter: Castner (inj), King (inj), Gutsie (inj), Bermudez, Ovispo de los Santos, Laughter, Lueke, Jumbo
Players in the system who have hit 98: Feliz, Holland, Harrison, Font, Schepp, Strop, Bermudez, Jumbo - (Honorable mention to Luis Mendoza who has flashed 96-98 during the last 2 years), Ogando
Starting pitchers whose hype outstrips their realistic ceiling: Edwin Escobar (#4), Braden Tullis (#4), Matt Thompson (#5/pen), Joe Wieland (#4/pen), Boscan (#4/pen), Alvarez (#5 at best)
Most problematic MiL to ML transition least thought out by prospect geeks: rotation to bullpen - justification: "Oh, well, they're lefties of course". (think Harrison, Kirkman and for RHP, Eric Hurley)
The area most nebulous and under-analyzed by prospect geeks: hittability (or how a hitter hits as much as how a pitcher throws)
Player most likely to go retro-viral: Michael Main, who will demonstrate that the regression in his curveball, his inability to command FB to bottom of zone, and the retarded development of his changeup were/are unrelated to Mono.


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