Saturday, March 27, 2010

Projected System Rosters

I've updated the projected system-wide rosters TX-DSL2 as a best guess on what they might look like when the minor league/extended rosters are released next week. All the off-season transactions are also listed to date in a separate section. Take a gander in the sidebar. I should note as an aside that there are a mountain load of relieves that will be relegated to extended to begin the season. It wouldn't surprise me if there were many bullpen guys let go between now and 4/8, opening day in the minors. Anyways, I'll also be updating my rankings and 2010 profiles over the next couple of weeks based on spring training notes (mainly provided by Jason Cole at lonestardugout and Jason Parks at bbtia) but also using pitch f/x data from MLB gameday when available this spring. Any info that I glean from both Cole and Parks is always attributed where appropriate.

I think if you look at my offseason rankings (posted in September and revised in January), my projections stack up really well (for what it is worth) based upon what Cole and Parks are reporting from the minor league camp. Having taken a lot of slack for debunking the Profar hype in general but particularly with the eye to the claim the Sardinas was a better prospect, Sardinas has indeed proven that he is the better prospect (right now). He has wowed people with his defensive range, hands, arm, and sagacity in the field and has also proven to be a better hitter with more projectable power than people had given him credit for. Sardinas is an exciting prospect. Profar on the other hand, and continuing a theme from instructs, has not played as well in games as he has in drills, and in fact, has barely played in any games at all this month, receiving developmental training on the side instead to work on his weaknesses. Of course, this doesnt matter to some. Jamey Newberg (and others) still has Profar in the top 6 prospects in the system (this is Andrus territory!) while Sardinas is closer to 20.

In additon, I think my projections were the only ones to project both camp stars Michael Kirkman (ML camp) and Jacob Brigham (MiL camp) in the top 12 prospects. Both players have had stellar camps. Some other players who I had in my top 30 who have done very well in minor league game action this spring who most likely appeared on no other lists: Ruben Sierra, Edwin Garcia, Carlos Melo, Robbie Erlin, Nick McBride, Paul Strong and Tony Doyle. As for the DSL players doing well in camp, my #1 DSL prospect, Randol Rojas, has done nothing but impress, and proved that the admiration from the DSL coaches was not misguied when he won the DSL pitcher of the year award last year. Also, another guy I pegged as the best SS in the DSL ranks, Santiago Hill, has simply had a stellar camp. I had him ranked higher than David Herrera (likely a 2b in the end) a more heralded J2 sign (~150k) and this insight has proven correct. Other DSL players of note in my separate DSL rankings who have had excellent camps: Denny Peralta, Alison Perez, T-Mart, David Herrera, Franky Mendoza, Jonny Gomez.

With Sardinas, Profar, Hill, Rojas, T-Mart, Herrera, Alfaro, and unheralded Mexican 3b Christian Villanueva (and 4-5 others who will likely show up stateside this year, like Jose Mavare, and Leo Gil), the DSL crop coming over to the stats this year will quite simply be the best class in the last 5 years. Exciting stuff. That is not even including the top pitching signs this year, David Perez and Victor Payano, who, because of the lack of roster spots/playing time with the AZ club - the club will be stocked full of talent - will likely stick with the other 09j2 rookies on the DSL2 club for 2010.

Anyways, updates forthcoming. In the interim, you can find profiles on almost every player in the system in my 2010 rankings workbook in the sidebar so check them out. They are based on many, many secondary sources as well as a lot of radio play from minor league games. For an overview on my particular take on "ranking" prospects in any minor league system, check out the "Prospecing 101" post pinned to the sidebar. You can also search the blog by prospect name to see what I have written about them over the last 15 months.

OT: If you want game by game action (that is from someone who visits every team in the system at least 2 times a year to watch/scout games in person) and interviews with coaches and players alike throughout the year, Jason Cole's is well worth the nominal subscription fee so check his site out. There is free material posted so that you can see the kinds of pieces he scripts to decide if you want to take the plunge.


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