Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Arb Figures

Per various sources:

Hambone wants 12m; TX offering 8.7m
(I predicted 6.5m, doubling his 3.25m salary, so I'll bump that to 10m)

Francisco wants 4.875m; TX offers 3.5m
(I predicted 4.2m)

O'Day wants 1.4; TX offers 1.05m
( I had 1.5m so I'll predict 1.2m)

DMurph agreed to a 2.4m deal
(I had 1.2m)

No word on figures for Cruz or Wilson, who I had at 3.5m and 4.5m respectively. I am going to stick with Cruz's # at 3.5m but raise Wilson's to 6.2.


With those adjusted arb figures, that bumps my payroll estimate from 90.59 to 95.79. I would say you can bump that up around 800k-1m, penciling in the acquisition of a RH hitter sometime before opening day. So I predict the TX payroll will be about 96.5-97m by opening day. Bump it up a bit more if they acquire a mid-roto arm, say 6-8m, by opening day or during July and that could bump this year's payroll to 100m. I would imagine they might do some cost-cutting (somehow) if they are in that area code by opening day.


UPDATE:
Texas has agreed to figures with Wilson and Cruz for 7 and 3.65m. So that bumps my estimated 2011 payroll to 95m, which likely gets bumped to 96 with the addition of a bat.

UPDATE:
A link to my payroll worksheet is up in the side bar now.

UPDATE:
So in talking over the payroll worksheet with some LSB folks, some prefer to focuse solely on the payroll for the active roster while I included the major league splits for everyone on the 40-man roster. The minor league splits can range from 35-65k, with some six year free agents making over 100k. So my 95m figure is modeled on the Cots worksheet which also budgets all major league contracts.




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1 comment:

  1. Did you hear/read any more about a Miggie injury?

    ReplyDelete