Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Yu Darvish Countdown: minus 24 hours

So the bidding for Yu Darvish ends tomorrow afternoon. I'm going to say that the rumored cash flow issues are bogus and that Texas puts in the high bid at 50million and pays him 50million over 5 for a 100million$ deal.

If Texas scouts think Yu Darvish has the stuff an Ace and they like his makeup then I don't see that as an unreasonable deal. The going rate for an ace is 20per so all you have to do is commit the money. No trades. No development time. Cup 'O Ace - just add millions.

If Texas scouts are conflicted about his ceiling then I don't know what they do. He surely has the stuff of a #1 but is a #1 worth 20per? He'd have to be a 5-7WAR guy for 5 years. How confident is Texas that Yu can be that guy? I have no idea. But if they think he has a legit shot at turning into an ace then i hope they get 'em. It would be a huge coup for the org.



  1. I agree that it's all about the scouting. If TX really believes in him they'll pony up, finding a way to come up with the cash. If they aren't that sure of him they won't. Same with Fielder, Soler, etc.

  2. BTW, I have the Pirates down as my sleeper darkhorse, they have unbelievable financial flexibility the next few years. I think the Nationals, Marlins and Blue Jays are better bets, though, in the dark horse category.

  3. With the new CBA I think even a 4-5 WAR pitcher could be worth $20per. The new wild card increases the value of those wins in the 80-90 range and for a team expecting to contend over the next several years I think it makes some sense.