Minor Moosings

With the new CBA I think even a 4-5 WAR pitcher co...

2011-12-15T08:14:16.510-06:00

With the new CBA I think even a 4-5 WAR pitcher could be worth $20per. The new wild card increases the value of those wins in the 80-90 range and for a team expecting to contend over the next several years I think it makes some sense.

BTW, I have the Pirates down as my sleeper darkhor...

2011-12-13T22:51:41.305-06:00

BTW, I have the Pirates down as my sleeper darkhorse, they have unbelievable financial flexibility the next few years. I think the Nationals, Marlins and Blue Jays are better bets, though, in the dark horse category.

I agree that it's all about the scouting. If ...

2011-12-13T22:49:46.217-06:00

I agree that it's all about the scouting. If TX really believes in him they'll pony up, finding a way to come up with the cash. If they aren't that sure of him they won't. Same with Fielder, Soler, etc.

I'm assuming they got a little signing bonus n...

2011-12-09T20:45:14.087-06:00

I'm assuming they got a little signing bonus now that allows them to carry a high payroll with some backloaded contracts until the annual kicks in. And with the money coming off the books next year (possibly as much as $50M if they let all their free agents go) they are in pretty good shape.

I agree about long term deals to older guys. My fear is that TX will instead spend big money on extensions for Hamilton et al.

Good point. I hadn't seen any specific #s on ...

2011-12-09T15:23:43.922-06:00

Good point. I hadn't seen any specific #s on their deal. Have you heard what the general # will be for the TX TV deal (a/o 2014 right?)?

So do you think the LAA's owner is committed to a 150-200m payroll for the next 5 years? And, due to the TV deal, you don't think they'll be hamstrung by that outlay in an of itself, right? I guess the biggest risk with these kinds of contracts is the injury component, and for 30yo+ guys that possibility looms larger every year of a long-term deal. In that respect, I prefer Texas' current skittishness to over long-term deals to older guys.

But their new tv contract reportedly pays them $15...

2011-12-09T10:19:31.340-06:00

But their new tv contract reportedly pays them $150M a year. They're not even blinking at those payroll numbers. They can get up just shy of the luxury tax and not sweat with that new tv deal.

I'm not particularly a Rangers fan (M's fa...

2011-06-15T02:50:56.566-05:00

I'm not particularly a Rangers fan (M's fan), but I do live in Spokane. Is it just me, or do the Rangers seem to place a lot of emphasis on their NWL affiliate compared to other teams? It seems like us Spokanites have been treated to a relatively high amount of major-league caliber talent compared to other short-season teams. Martin Perez, Feliz, Profar, Olt, Kinsler, Chris Davis, Diamond & Kiker (both fizzled, but were solid prospects), etc. I realize that part of it is that the Rangers have had a very strong system over the past 8 or so years, but I'm just curious. Great blog.

Matt

I should add, they have a different kind of projec...

2011-06-12T06:39:18.546-05:00

I should add, they have a different kind of projection for young players, not much in the way of physical projection, as they will always be a smallish, though they will get stronger of course, but it is not a "classic" projection leave scouts apoplectic. Rather, it is really a mental projection, the ability to become better baseball players than anyone else, a better feel for the game, an awareness that making adjustments will be the key to defining their future success.

Yeah, his SO rate is fine, his GO rate is still fi...

2011-06-12T06:30:26.234-05:00

Yeah, his SO rate is fine, his GO rate is still fine, and he still breaks bats. It puzzles me that some still view him as a future bullpen guy.

Texas has some intriguing prospects who are young but advanced that make them hard to figure as they move up through the minors. We really haven't had guys like Erlin or Profar to offer some context to inform our expectations. I mean, Erlin's average fastball could mean he'll be a # 4 while his complete package suggest he could also be a 2_3. Profars tools in the field but especially at the plate are full of "now"s rather than a lot of future "ifs" unlike any other 18yo that TX has had in the system in the last, say, 5yrs, 10 yrs, that he's hard to figure as a 22yo on the verge.

I thought Moreland was the last guy who I really had no feel for concerning his projection, but for entirely different, opposite, reasons. So far so good with the guy, though his splits are still not great, and they still seem to be protecting him verses lefties...

Ross also had 14 ground ball outs.

2011-06-11T21:00:34.236-05:00

Ross also had 14 ground ball outs.

Did you hear/read any more about a Miggie injury?

2011-01-18T23:05:37.585-06:00

Did you hear/read any more about a Miggie injury?

I suppose it's possible that Moreland in addit...

2011-01-13T10:56:00.291-06:00

I suppose it's possible that Moreland in addition to the other pieces mentioned (Holland, Beltre, etc.) might have put the Rangers package over the top, but I wouldn't have liked the deal in that case. But the Cubs package probably just makes more sense in the long run for Tampa, they don't need Holland right now with Hellickson ready to jump in, so Archer might be a better fit.

Well, what should we expect him to say? Action sp...

2011-01-03T23:05:47.404-06:00

Well, what should we expect him to say? Action speak louder than words, we'll see how the team uses him this year. It was telling that they signed Counsell quickly after the trade.

Er, should read: "recently STARTED posting&qu...

2010-05-27T12:39:50.546-05:00

Er, should read: "recently STARTED posting"

I'm the "anonymous bar hopper". Jus...

2010-05-27T12:38:22.756-05:00

I'm the "anonymous bar hopper".

Just noticed that you responded to my comment last month. After a day or so, I forgot to check for a response.

Anyway, I recently posting under the name "VM" on LSB.

If you're ever interested in taking in a game with a fellow Ranger fan, let me know. I've no TV, so I'm compelled to get out of the house to watch now and again. Typically at Black Sheep or Red's Porch, as they're both near my house. But I'll go anywhere that's got good beer on draft and decent TVs.

muy bueno starlin pueguero

2010-04-23T19:17:57.790-05:00

muy bueno starlin pueguero

Ay Guey! Lemme just say that having both you and ...

2010-04-12T01:57:00.655-05:00

Ay Guey! Lemme just say that having both you and Cole in ST covering game action and having such a great variety of materials posted online to read and analyze has been terrific. 2010 minor league camp has been the most enjoyable one for me to follow and think about without question.

Having said that, the "assumption" in question really does stand up to scrutiny- tracking sessions and 2 bullpens do not equal game action and 6 innings of game action out of the pen for a starter is definitely SSS. In only 6 short-stint innings with a pitcher throwing 75% FB, there would not seem to be enough secondary pitches thrown to hang one's hat on. If you translated the # of pitches you saw thrown during ST into actual starts and watched those starts over the course of the season I think your reports would more closely approximate the state of any one pitch.

Having said that, I know very well that your reports are what they are: detailed scouting reports from spring training. This entry was not really criticism of you, rather an attempt to parse all of the incongruent reports that I have made note of since the draft including all the positive ones from ST. Taking it as fait accompli that you did in fact witness the makings of a very good CB, I was more interested in why no one really knew about it and how it emerged deus ex machina in ST.

My conclusion matches your own: Bell probably had a decent feel for the pitch at some point in 09 but never needed it as the FB/CU combo was sufficient to excel vs the inconsistent level of comp in JC/Cape leagues. However, it was the off-season development program, his hard work, coupled with a better than nascent feel for the pitch that allowed it to emerge with much more promise than anyone had imagined.

Anyways, and as always, keep up the great work.

pd: When are we going to get an update on your trajectory as a future scout? What a cache of great stories you must have no? We'd all like to hear the story of how that experience has been over the last ~year? Unless you are doing work for a team, why not post a day in the life kind thing at BBTIA while scouting the Mexican League? I guess when we stop hearing from you, we'll know you scored a position with a ML team, no? (taking the Kiley McDaniel route, heh) Good luck navigating that challenging terrain ...

"I think the report about his changeup is jus...

2010-04-11T16:32:45.282-05:00

"I think the report about his changeup is just due to the small sample size and limited innings inherent to minor league camp."

Interesting observation. I guess it's easy to make that assumption, especially with past scouting reports indicating the above-average nature of his CU, as well as the player's own admission. However, when looking at his entire arsenal during game action (I caught 3 game appearances, 1 tracking session, and two bullpens), the CU didn't stand-up to the other pitches. I have spoken to several scouts who charted Bell in the Cape, and they were very high on his CU at the time and think it will be a major league pitch. I don't disagree. In the Cape, the hitters are quite aggressive and Bell was able to find success with a low 90s FB and CU combination, and didn't throw many CBs. Now that he has received professional instruction, his CB has emerged as a legit pitch and it plays off his FB nicely. The CU is also a good pitch, but after observing the shape of the pitch, the arm-speed in which he throws it, and the rhythm of his sequence, it didn't strike me as a pitch that was on the same level as the curve. That doesn't mean it won't prove to be as effective. Effectiveness is not necessarily tied into scouting grades. While I find his CB to be superior to his CU, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if his CU ended up being a more effective major league pitch, especially when you consider how important it will have to be for him to have sustained success as a starter.

-JP

To the anonymous bar hopper: no i generally only ...

2010-04-10T08:31:38.101-05:00

To the anonymous bar hopper: no i generally only take in Mavs and Boys games in local watering holes (shoal creek is a good spot) as I generally get all of the beisbol games on cable via Grande (or I'm listening to/watching a MiL game instead).

And also of course as you say because there are precious few Rangers fans in Austin and maybe none at all in the graduate college in liberal arts (but that applies to sports generally there for the most part, except for futbol among the latinamericanistas)...

Yo DT, Easy Eddie's response to being morphed ...

2010-04-10T08:22:52.715-05:00

Yo DT, Easy Eddie's response to being morphed into E-Mart's doppleganger: "no respeto, no respeto, te dice!" and "I'm no Martinez, I'm of Garcia stock" and "are you saying we all look alike, gringo?". Still floatin' under the radar but just you wait...EMart's a pretty good defensive MIF btw though, yeah, org guy.

As for the vet catchers, Hogan's an org guy IMO and will be the Mauro Gomez of AA. With DiFAzio, he missed 2-3 years of ball due to his weird neurological thing so maybe he's there to work on backstop skills, idk. It wouldn't surprise me though if the end result is the same: he starts 2011 in AA so I'm not sure it makes that much difference where he starts this year lowA, highA. But I do like him and it would be quite a cool story to see him make it as a b/u backstop in the end.

I will say that I like the way TX tries to pair an org guy with a greenhorn at the most difficult of positions and Macumba is definitely one of those. He'll get my pt this year I think even with a vet there so quit your whining already...

BTW, I look forward to reading a couple of your trip reports from hickory when checking out the best pitching staff in the minors. Make sure to mention how fat Santana is at least once (6.0/225!).

I don't know many serious Austin ranger fans.....

2010-04-07T13:22:40.231-05:00

I don't know many serious Austin ranger fans... You watch many games out in bars? I'm a south Austin (Zilker area) denizen myself...

Heh, I had this whole post typed up about crazy yo...

2010-04-07T08:44:15.601-05:00

Heh, I had this whole post typed up about crazy you are for liking Eddy Garcia... then I realized I was thinking of Eddie Martinez, who licks grundle.

Gotta say my leas favorite thing is playing it super conservative w/ major college vets DiFaziGod and Hogan who butt for ceiling's and nothing to prove in the low minors, thereby relegating Macumba to caddy duty yet again.

*Sigh*

-Dirque T. Ron.

also lonestardugout w/ hurley @ #32 in the system ...

2010-02-23T16:25:04.532-06:00

also lonestardugout w/ hurley @ #32 in the system which i thought was laughable until i saw newberg had hurley at #24.

wow.

btw, Goldstein said that he would be in the 5-7 ra...

2010-02-23T16:23:55.457-06:00

btw, Goldstein said that he would be in the 5-7 range for the braves...

so around prospects like freddie freeman, randal delgado, christian bethancourt, mike minor , craig kimbrell (their 4-8 guys)

Not necessarily, as everyone was probably waiting ...

2010-02-03T18:42:18.190-06:00

Not necessarily, as everyone was probably waiting for some other team to make the request. MLB's reaction will set the market and set off the bidding. There is also a chance that both MLB and the consulate could rule against him which would mean he would surely go the East Asia route. I do think that Boston and NY have always been the favs (He was said to be all but NY-bound before the suspension) but Boston is said to be out of money for anymore signings.

With respect to TX, the Alfaro signing could have taken us out of the running for any more 09 j2 prospects. After not signing any j2 players for 7 figures in their entire history, they have now signed 3 in one year for at least 1.3 million. That is pretty amazing. I think it is safe to say that beginning last year- Portillo, Ynoa - TX is now willing to make the same kind of j2 outlays that Boston and NYY have historically made. NOw that the financial muscle has been paired with scouting smarts, it seems that the sky is the limit now in LA. Will Preller take us deeper into the Pacific Rim now, on to Brazil, and then to China and India...? Probably not, but it should be a fun ride.