Minor Moosings

Deglan

2012-01-26T17:53:00.002-06:00

Ming over at Newberg came across a nice article on Deglan's off-season. Deglan will be spending some time in the DR before ST starts. 2012 sleeper Drew Robinson will also be there. I'll see if Jason Cole knows which US players will be down there.

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Winter Camp

2012-01-06T02:27:00.002-06:00

Evan Grant notes that Texas is bringing back the winter pitcher's camp, featuring advanced minor leaguers as well as Feliz and Ogando. The list of minor leaguers:

RHP Jake Brigham, LHP Miguel De Los Santos, RHP Wilmer Font, RHP Justin Grimm, RHP Mark Hamburger, LHP Michael Kirkman, RHP Roman Mendez, RHP Justin Miller, LHP Martin Perez, RHP Neil Ramirez, LHP Robbie Ross, RHP Tanner Scheppers, RHP Matt West.

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Yu Darvish

2011-12-14T19:07:00.002-06:00

The next CJ Wilson.

Patrick Newman on Darvish:

This season he was a lot better. The most obvious difference was his fastball velocity, which was more consistently around 94 and touched 97 on his best days. His cutter seemed to take a step forward this year, giving him three pitches above 90 mph with movement (2-seamer, 4-seamer, cutter). I think the velocity gains are real, as he added 10 kg of strength to his frame last offseason. I didn’t really see the same mistakes with his slider this year, he actually looked like he was using all his stuff effectively. There would be times when decent hitters would start to catch up and foul off his harder stuff, and he’d come right back with a slow curve or softer slider, and the hitter would be helpless. So he looked better overall this year, and my concerns about his mistake pitches and velocity are mostly gone. He’ll certainly still make the odd mistake, as he’s not a robot, but I’m more optimistic about him than I have been of anyone in the past.

Most of these are eyeball-level observations, drawn from memory of the games I watched during the season. So grains of salt apply. Here’s some data for reference and additional context: http://npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=242
This doesn’t mean that Darvish is without question marks. All the usual stuff applies — five-day rotation, different ball, different mound, facing batters that can actually hit home runs, being prepared mentally, coping with travel, etc. I have the impression that Nippon Ham has really let Darvish do his own thing — he tends to tweak his delivery a lot, more than any other pitcher I can think of offhand. Who knows if an MLB pitching coach is going to be cool with that? Also keep in mind that Darvish is going to have more pressure and attention than possibly any player that has preceded him. Ichiro was stalked relentlessly by the Japanese media when he joined the Mariners, but I don’t think the Americans necessarily expected much from him. American fans have been anticipating Darvish for years, so he’ll have the Japanese insanity and the American expectations to live up to. I think he will be successful though, and I hope he is.

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Yu Darvish Countdown: minus 24 hours

2011-12-13T18:45:00.002-06:00

So the bidding for Yu Darvish ends tomorrow afternoon. I'm going to say that the rumored cash flow issues are bogus and that Texas puts in the high bid at 50million and pays him 50million over 5 for a 100million$ deal.

If Texas scouts think Yu Darvish has the stuff an Ace and they like his makeup then I don't see that as an unreasonable deal. The going rate for an ace is 20per so all you have to do is commit the money. No trades. No development time. Cup 'O Ace - just add millions.

If Texas scouts are conflicted about his ceiling then I don't know what they do. He surely has the stuff of a #1 but is a #1 worth 20per? He'd have to be a 5-7WAR guy for 5 years. How confident is Texas that Yu can be that guy? I have no idea. But if they think he has a legit shot at turning into an ace then i hope they get 'em. It would be a huge coup for the org.

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Minor Notes

2011-12-09T15:25:00.004-06:00

Texas signed 29yo utility man Alberto Gonzalez to a minor league deal today. He has a woeful 595 career OPS in the NL but still managed to get in on 300 games at the big league level over the last 3 years with about 200 starts. Hardly seems possible but there it is. For Texas, he would mark a downgrade from Andres Blanco in that role and is likely tabbed for AAA to provide depth to the club in case of an injury to the real utility infielder who will emerge by the end of ST. Or, if his D is good enough, he just might be the guy.

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Angels Payroll 2016

2011-12-08T22:58:00.004-06:00

Pujols, age 36: 25m
Wilson, age 35: 20m
Weaver, age 33.5: 20m

65 million$$ for 3 players. Wow.

Vernon Wells is making 24m from 2012-2014; Santana and Haren make 11m and 13m respectively (both with a club option for 2013); and Tori Hunter is bringing down 18.5m. What a payroll clusterfuck!

So for these 7 players, they are on the hook for 92min 2012! Throw in Bobby Abreu and there you have it, an 8-man roster with a 101 million dollar payroll. Just wow!

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Rule 5

2011-12-08T15:11:00.003-06:00

Texas neither took or lost anyone in the ML portion of the Rule 5 today. However they did complete the Teagarden trade (Randy Henry, ptbnl) by selecting 24.8yo SH 2b/SS Greg Miclat (SH) from the Orioles, from a list of rule 5 eligible players, so his selection couldn't come until after the Rule 5 draft. Per TRS, Miclat has beeen added to the Frisco roster but he can be expect to compete for a spot on the AAA club and offer depth as a possible utility infielder during the season in case of injuries (or he could just be depth). Baltimore didn't lose anyone in the ML phase so Miclat was likely their top choice from the list.

In the minor league phase Texas selected three players (ages as of 4/1/12): 23.6yo LHP Fabian Williamson (6.2/175); 22.1yo SH OF Efrain Nunez (6.3/190); 24.5 2b Alex Buchholz (6.0/182). Williamson has been unimpressive during his career, with fringy command, and was demoted from AA back to highA after a particularly brutal 2011. Texas might see him as a loogy based on his work in 2010. Efrain Nunez likely profiles as a salvage project, another OF turned pitcher, as he has never made it out of short season ball during his career with particularly unimpressive #s in 2009 and 2010 though he did have some success in the AAPY league in 2011. Alex Buchholz is likely depth for the HighA or AA squad at 2b.

So Texas goes out with a wimper at this year's Winter Meetings.

Final Note:
I have to say that Texas' reported interest in Garza is puzzling as he was a back end #3 in 08 and 09, was a back end #4 in 2010. His terrific 2011 has to be viewed with some suspicion as it occurred after switching to a new home park in the NL. Maybe Texas scouts believe that Garza finally has harnessed his inconsistent stuff to realize his potential as a top roto arm and that the improvement after the move to the NL was just a coincidence? Taking a quick look at his stats, his GB rate improved dramatically (as well as his HR rate but park factor is relevant here), which is a park-independent stat, so maybe he added a 2S or cutter to his repertoire that accounts for the improvement. Just trying to play devil's advocate here as Texas must view him as a top roto arm going forward for their reported interest to make sense as bringing in another inconsistent #3 doesn't improve the club at all.

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Minor Notes

2011-12-06T21:59:00.008-06:00

Haven't been keeping tabs on the rule 5 but some guy over at Bucs Dugout has an amazingly thorough writeup so check it out if that crapshoot interests you. Mayo should be coming out with his list soon if he hasn't already.

Texas has a few relievers that might be of interest to some teams (Ortiz, Yan, Kelly, Tufts) while the only hitter that teams might have interest in is Joey Butler (with Chad Tracy a longshot). Nothing exciting to see here.

Daniels was quoted recently about something that we are all finally on board with: Scheppers is a bullpen arm. Right now, his below average command limits his ceiling to something other than a late inning arm. This is a critical year for the Schepp, though relievers often get it together later rather than sooner, as his command issues completely mitigate the quality of his FB and CB, which some rate as 70 pitches when they are on. If he can't put it together by mid-season one would think that a complete mechanical overhaul might be on the horizon. If his command projects no better than average at best, one has to wonder what his ceiling can be. Closer, no. Setup, big maybe. 7th inning arm, yes. Scheppers has been a real disappointment and is rated way to highly by some even after his chronic injury issues, below average command, and failure to develop a third pitch.

I've updated the ages for the 2012 roster in the sidebar and made a rough projection for each level.

UPDATE:
Ming over at Newberg came across a MiL signing on 12/2: ~26yo MiL FA, Loogy and sidearmer, Kyle Fernandes from the Boston system. STrictly a loogy, vs LHH: 22/18/0/5/26/.217. A depth signing with the potential to help the big club a few weeks in that role in case of injury.

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Randy Henry Notes

2011-12-02T16:50:00.006-06:00

A blurb from BA from the 2009 Draft, signed at 4th rd pick for 365K:

Hailing from Arnett, Okla., Henry was slated to attend Texas Tech after high school. But he blew out his elbow, missed his senior season after having Tommy John surgery and ended up at South Mountain CC. He's played second base for the Cougars this year, but his future is likely on the mound. At 6-foot-3, Henry has clean mechanics from a three-quarter arm slot. Just 18 months removed from surgery, head coach Todd Eastin gave Henry a very soft landing this year, allowing him to pitch out of the bullpen. Over nine games, Henry pitched just 11 innings this season. Because of his limited time on the mound this year, Henry has been tough to see, but those that have seen him walked away impressed. His fastball has shown good life, sitting at 90 mph every time out and even touching 94-96 late in the year. While Henry threw mostly fastballs and changeups this year, when he regained the confidence to throw a breaking ball, scouts said it was an above-average pitch with great tilt and snap.

Video from MLB.com draft profiles

Brief 2010 interview Orioles Nation

Orioles Nation Profile

BA updated profile:

Henry is an athletic righthander whose best offering is a plus slider that features sharp, late break and tops out at 87 mph. His fast arm produces 91-94 mph fastball velocity with good arm-side run, but he's still developing a below-average changeup. A 2009 draft pick, Henry spent the majority of the 2011 season in low Class A and injury concerns have been an issue in the past. He endured two separate disabled list stints in 2010 for right elbow inflammation. Though the Rangers will try out Henry as a starter, the combination of his aggressive approach and two above-average pitches profile well as a potential seventh- or eighth-inning reliever.

UPDATE:
Henry missed the first 6-7 weeks of the season so one has to assume that his elbow was still bothering him this spring. Given his health issues the last 2 years I'm not sure why the word from Texas is that they like him as a starter (I think that came from Daniels via TRS).

UPDATE DEUX:
Digging around a little I found out that Henry had surgery again on August 11 2010 after his two DL stints. It was supposed to be a second TJ surgery but the docs only found broken up scar tissue rather than any damage to the ligament replacement. So this likely explains why he missed the beginning of the year; he was still rehabbing from the surgery rather than dealing with a new setback, so that is good news, news Texas already knew of course, which gives credence to their willingness to look at him in the roto for 2012. I also found a note that he was working on a cut fastball in 2011.

Henry's timeline is something like this:
TJ before Senior Year (fall o7 or Spring 08); missed SR year 08; pitched 11ip out of the pen for a JC in 2009 but mostly played 2nd base; drafted by baltimore in the 4th round in 2009, but didn't pitch in the minors; pitched 23 innings out of the pen for Delmarva, Low A, in 2010, punctuated by two stays on the DL, and an exploratory surgery on his TJ elbow on August 11; Rehabbed from surgery the first 6-7 weeks of 2011 season; Pitched 53 innings (LowA June/July; HighA August) out of the pen in 2011 after being activated without a DL stay and finished the year healthy.

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Instructs

2011-09-13T18:08:00.009-05:00

Instructs action starts tomorrow and the rosters and schedules (for both the Intro and Advanced leagues) should come out soon.

I am hoping that many of the j2 signs make an appearance and we get some analysis of these kids straight away. The most intriguing questions for me:

1. Is Nomar Mazara a once in a decade prospect? Boom/Bust and incredibly raw or a guy who starts in Spokane in 2012?
2. Is Ronald Guzman as bad an athlete as he appears to be in the 3-4 videos that are out there? Can we already pencil him in as a 1B? Not such a bad thing, if true, though I'd rather have the true COF, but he'll have to bash to earn that 3.5m.
3. What is the story with Yohan Mendez, 85-88 or 88-92 with more in the tank? The next Martin Perez?
4. Someone finally tell us what Pedro Julio Payano throws? Is there some serious heat in those narrow shoulders?

UPDATE:
The DPL has moved up the start date for the first half of the their season a full 2 months, from November to September, and got under way 9/7. That puts their season from Sept -June in addition to the Parallel league in July and August, should that arrangement continue next year, for a full calendar year of baseball for that league.

UPDATE:
Jason Cole has the instructs roster/schedule up. The top j2 signs are there, all but the mysterious, Pedro Julio Payano, who, it seems, will continue to be an enigma. Also note, as I indicated above, that Ronald Guzman is already being listed as a 1B, so there's that. JC tells me that both he and Jason Parks will be there for part of the the time, so subscribe to one or both of their sites (links in the sidebar) for what will be the first evaluation of some of the DSL/j2 kids with closer examinations of some of the US youngsters. The games don't actually start until the 19th. With some 62 players (!), JC also added this note:

Like the last two years, the Rangers will play a regular instructs and advanced instructs team. Because they have so many players there, they'll also field a younger group that plays local JUCOs and scout teams here and there.

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J2 Notes

2011-09-11T10:18:00.008-05:00

Just in case you missed it, Texas signed two more j2 kids, both from the DR: RHP Jeily (Gialy) Arias, 6.1/178, 7.20.95 (8/5); SS Crisford Adames, 6.1/160, 1.26.95 (7/12). Arias was listed on Badler's top 40 notable prospects list (by bonus) so he is likely a nice prospect. He is very young, only turning 16 at the end of July, with a nice frame and present velo. His bonus is surely 6 figures but it could range anywhere from from 200-500k, so I'll guess 375k. Here is what Badler (sub.) had to say:

Raul Valera (known has Banana) has two of the top 16-year-old righthanders in the Dominican Republic this year with Miguel Gonzalez and Arias, who also works out at La Academia. While Gonzalez is an advanced strike-thrower, Arias has a bigger frame, more present velocity and projection. Arias is thin, has big hands and a lively fastball that touches 92 mph. His breaking ball and changeup aren't as advanced. He's athletic, but his delivery has some effort to it, so he'll need to iron out his mechanics to help him throw more strikes and remain a starter.

Don't have any info on Adames, but I'm going to say he signed in the 100-150k range. Both kids were signed about 2 weeks after they were eligible so Texas was on them and they are kids one should keep an eye on. Still a number of nice j2 kids out there. Just as an aside, j2 signings, unless they are of the 7 figure variety, are often not official until all of the paperwork is done, so sometimes they come across the transaction feed (if at all) 4-6 weeks later. Last year, Texas signed all of their kids after the playoffs (mid Nov-end Dec) but they didn't appear on the wire until February.

One Cuban of note, 22yo LHP Onelkis Garcia, will likely not be eligible to sign with clubs until the end of the year or early spring, as long as all of his paperwork clears. He was the kid that appeared to be added to the draft pool the week of the draft then removed, and then, no one really knew. Turns out the he was not draft eligible. Here is what Badler had to say:

Lefthander Onelkis Garcia, who turned 22 last month, "doesn't have an official status right now" because MLB is still investigating his case, Ng said. The lefty is a prospect in higher demand than Adonis Garcia, as he has shown a low-90s fastball that hits the mid-90s while flashing an above-average breaking ball, though his control still needs work.

UPDATE:
Didn't find much on Adames (Crisford Adames Mejía) save that he played for the Santo Domingo MLB RBI squad last year (age 14-15) that won that tourney in Orlando. He was also in the 13-14yo bracket in 2009. He also is the third player that Texas has signed represented by Ivan Noboa coupled with Payano and Mazara. Noboa, whose seedy rep seems not to have bothered Los Vigilantes, seems to have taken the same tact with Adames (not sure about Payano) that he took with Mazara: take him out of league action (no DPL, IBL) and keep to the workout circuit (unlike Guzman's agent who allowed him to play in the DPL).

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Robbie Ross

2011-08-12T16:03:00.002-05:00

Here a MILB article on Robbie Ross, which notes that he is working on a CB in AA, and includes an old picture of him from Hickory where you can see why some questioned his body in 2010.

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Draft Notes

2011-08-12T15:08:00.005-05:00

TNR's Ming has come across an article confirming that HS C Max Pentecost has signed with the team and will be in AZ on Monday, but likely won't get into game action until instructs, as he is still recovering from (non-TJ) elbow surgery. This year's draft haul (and last year's while we're on it) has been disappointing so far, even more so now with Fisher and Woodruff (who BA sources didn't like that much anyways) going to school, so this pick is a key signing. Keith Law suggested he had a 2nd-3rd round projection before his injury plagued senior year - he had a broken knuckle as well as a stress fracture/reaction in his forearm/elbow area, requiring surgery. . Now, keep your fingers crossed for Costen and Fish. Here is a brief BA blurb on him:

Pentecost got plenty of early exposure with his solid athleticism and intriguing bat. An elbow injury in April turned out to require Tommy John surgery, but a similar injury didn't keep fellow Georgia prep catcher Luke Bailey from getting picked two years ago. Pentecost doesn't have Bailey's track record, though. He's committed to Kennesaw State.

And some quotes from the article:
The Bulldoggs' standout catcher, who was drafted in the seventh round of the 2011 MLB Draft by Texas, signed with the Rangers this week after coming to terms with the team over the weekend. He left for Arlington, Texas, on Wednesday to complete a physical. After returning home for the weekend, he'll leave again on Monday for the rookie league in Arizona...

...He struggled with injuries in his senior year, suffering a broken knuckle early in the season and a stress fracture in his right arm late in the year. "The scout that followed Max originally saw him in the summer of his ninth-grade year," Winder-Barrow coach Brian Smith said after the draft. "He has been on Max the whole time. That shows that he really saw a lot in Max." Pentecost had surgery in May on his right arm and won't resume throwing until next week. He spent the summer working in a vineyard in Cleveland.

UPDATE:
Pentecost does not sign (possibly renewed health concerns?) nor does anyone else of note. It's official: the Texas draft sucked and was preceded by a another mediocre showing last year in the top 5 rounds. Don't buy the rhetoric that Texas spent all of there 10m$ in draft money on 16yo j2 kids. There is ZERO excuse for failing to elect and sign premium talent in the draft's early rounds. Period. J2 is should be budgeted separately and if it is not, they are fools. Count me woefully unimpressed with the Preller era on the Draft side of things; the 2010 shakeup of the staff and organizational approach seems like a systematic failure - the top rounds- where hitting on top picks does not seem to be much of a priority. the new mantra for the new regime: WWOM (Welke's Whales Over Minnows). But then again, maybe a shakeup was necessary as Texas has had major busts on rounds 2-3 during most of the JD era, but, clearly, this isn't much of an improvement, if not a retrogression.

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Alfaro

2011-08-08T00:03:00.001-05:00

Nice article on Jorge Alfaro.

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Leury Garcia News

2011-08-04T22:17:00.002-05:00

In other news, Jamie Newberg thinks that Leury Garcia has, yet again, been the subject of trade rumors. Need I say more?

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CJ Wilson

2011-07-27T15:41:00.002-05:00

I find CJ Wilson to be an irritating human being for the same reasons that most people do. So does Steve Busby (h/t Cole, Matches).

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Wieland

2011-07-25T22:57:00.000-05:00

Wieland on his changeup and his love for Robbie Diaz.

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Mendonca

2011-07-23T15:02:00.003-05:00

Just when some folks were about to change their tune on Mendonca, the prospect, he went into a tailspin. Don't jump off the bandwagon just yet, however. His slump began right around the time of a personal tragedy for which he took a temporary leave from June 28 to July 3, and hasn't been the same since (until his 3HR game last night of course):

The third baseman, selected 62nd overall in the 2009 Draft, raised his average to .305 and has 20 homers and 71 RBIs in 84 Texas League games. He'd been in a 7-for-51 (.137) slump over 12 contests since the Texas League All-Star Game.

"Not a lot of people know this, but I had two buddies die in a tragic car accident the day before the All-Star Game," said Mendonca, who missed four games and attended two funerals in six days. "There were a lot of personal things on my mind because they were close, dear friends of mine.

"I couldn't care less if I went 0-for-4 or 0-for-5 or 0-for-6 or if I had 300 strikeouts. I would give all this up to have them back. It put it all into perspective."

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Preller, JD

2011-07-15T11:35:00.002-05:00

Someone over at LSB came across this nice article on Preller and JD.

Speaking of the Dominican, the DSL club was no-hit last night.

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2011 j2 Bonuses Updated (1/28/12)

2011-07-14T11:05:00.012-05:00

UPDATED 1/28/12

At this point, there are a record 16 deals done or on the table for 7 figures with Robert Osuna also expected to receive a 2M+ deal down the line (and possibly, though less likely, OF Franmil Reyes). In addition, by the time the numbers are all in, there may also be that many in the 500K+ range. We are talking some truly historic outlays here with up to 30 prosects getting 500K+ or more, !Increible! If the class were that good, and I doubt that is is, that would be one thing, but I have to think that some uncertainty about the future j2 market (CPB, caps, slots, draft) may have played a role in the gargantuan (how rarely one gets to use that word) amount of money being thrown around here.

As for Texas, one would have to imagine that they are done signing guys over 500K (at least until November), but it has been a historic haul for Texas as one expected so they might not be done. Don Welke wasn't kidding when he said Texas had targeted 3 of the top j2 names in one of the spring banquets; It looks like they got all three, and currently have issued three of the top 5 highest bonus amounts overall. I'm hoping the fact that Texas wasn't in on any of the top catchers in this market is less an indication of their disinterest than a measure of the likelihood that it signs one or both of the promising HS catchers in their draft haul, Fish and/or Pentecost. Or maybe they were just out of money! Per various sources, the top bonuses this year:

1. Nomar Mazara, TX, COF, DR, 4.95M
2. Ronald Guzman, TX, LF/1B, DR, 3.45M
3. Elier Hernandez, KC, OF, DR, 3.05M
4. Victor Sanchez, SEA, RHP, VZ, 2.5M
5. Roberto Osuna, Tor, RHP, ~2m, 9/1
6. Adalberto Mondesi, KC, SS, DR, 2M
7. Jose Leal, SEA, OF, VZ, 1.5-1.9M
8. Yohander Mendez, TX, LHP, VZ, 1.5M
9. Marck Malave, Cubs, C, VZ, 1.5M
10. Wilmer Becerra, Tor, OF, VZ, 1.3M
11. Dawel Lugo, Tor, SS, DR, 1.3M
12. Enrique Acosta, Cubs, SS, DR, 1.1M
13. Dorssys Paulino, Cleve, SS, DR, 1.1M
14. Jose Ruiz, SD, C, VZ, 1.1-1.2M
15. Harold Ramirez, Pitt, OF, CO, 1.05M
16. Jesus Gonzalez, Tor, OF, VZ, 1-1.3M
17. Raimel Flores, Bos, SS, DR, 900K
18. Jonathan Perez, Reds, RHP, VZ, 825K
19. Manuel Marcos, Bos, OF, DR, 800K
20. Jose Garcia, Mets, C, VZ, ~800k
21. Carloss Tocci, OF, VZ: rumored here, Phil, 759K, 8/24
22. Miguel Andujar, NYY, 3B, DR, 750K
23. Adelin Santa, Det, 3B, Det, 750K
24. Luis Reynoso, Hous, SS, DR, 700K
25. Pedro Payano, TX, RHP, DR, 650K
26. Franmil Reyes, SD, DR, 700K
27. Miguel Gonzo, MN, RHP, DR, 650K
28. Wander Franco, CO, LHP, VZ, 600K
29. Edgar Pineda, Cleve, LHP, VZ, ~500-700K
30. Dioscar Romero, Bos, RHP, DR, 600K
31. Elvis Escobar, Pir, OF, VZ, 570K
32. Seong Min Kim, Oak, C, KO, 510K

Others:
Yairo Munoz, Oak, SS, DR, 280K
Mauricio Silva, MN, RHP, VZ, 370K
Luiz Martinez, ChiSox, RHP, VZ, 250K
Yasiel Balaguert (19yo), Cubs, LF, CU, 400K
Carlos Martinez (20yo), Cubs, RHP, CU, 250K
Alex Carreras, (22yo), AZ, LHP, CU, 400k
Sanber Pimentel, Oak, RF/1B, DR
Jesus Tinoco, Tor, RHP, VZ
Soid Marquez, Cin, RHP, VZ
Eduar Pinto, TX, CF, VZ, ~300
Cris Adames Mejia, TX, SS, DR
Dewin Perez, Stl, LHP, CO, 450k
Frank del Valle, Cubs, LHP, CU, 800k

Other signs:
Soid Marquez, RHP, Reds, VZ (Ciro Barrios), TBA
My notes on the kid who I thought was worth the coin and #38 on Badler's speculative "top bonus" list: 38. Soid Marquez, RHP VZ: late buzz similar profile and frame as Mendez, with the CB being his 2nd pitch, and its a good one; seems too low on Bad's list.

Jesus Tinoco, RHP, Jays, VZ (Ciro Barrios), TBA

Notables still free:
28. Mauricio Silva: late buzz; if his body is good and offers a little more projection, I'd spend their money like that (6.1/190); too low on Bad's list. 28. Mauricio Silva, RHP, VZ: eligible 7/24; +93, good CB, feel for change. Cross your fingers on this guy; ranked too low.
11. Helsin Martinez, RF, DO: Appears to be negotiated with Seattle, a possible 7 cifra deal. Martinez is an intriguing RF but has very bad hitting mechanics to go with plus power and bat speed; seems like boom/bust type. Given that Seattle seems to be on him for more than 1.5m, I don't think hes' in the budget, and Mazarro might (is?) already be that high risk guy.

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Dominican Parallel League

2011-07-13T16:54:00.005-05:00

Guzman and Mazara will compete in this league beginning today. The league commissioner is Rangers' International Ops guy Fred Kruger.

I'm assuming the DPL Elite team (2011/2012 prospects) will compete against reserve players (and 2011 j2 signs) from the participating teams' DSL rosters.

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j2 Breather

2011-07-08T10:47:00.014-05:00

Venezuelan Rumors:
According to one source, CF Edwuar Pinto signed for ~200k. Fits the profile to a tee for a low 6-figure sign for Texas (at least circa 2008): Now skills, low ceiling. Will debut stateside. According to various (unconfirmed) sources, Texas has been tied to a # of other players (measureables from early spring to early April from gringo sources): RHP Kevin Sosa, 6.0 (86-87, Raw: mechs, control; BA has better spin on him: fixable mechanics, loose quick arm, 85-89, high 3/4, good plane, feel for both secs); C Marck Malave (Cubs, 1.5m); 3B Arturo Michelina (plus arm, Hous, 220k); an unnamed LF from the Blasini academy (not on Badler's top 40 that I can tell).

The Best of the Rest:
Based on Ben Badler's top 40 list (ranked by Bonus):
4. Roberto Osuna, RHP, MX: Toronto has submitted a tentative offer, with more clubs anticipated to bid over the next 2 wks
11. Helsin Martinez, RF, DO: Appears to be negotiated with Seattle, a possible 7 cifra deal.
12. Adalberto Mondesi, SS, DO: eligible 7/27, KC in at a rumored 1.15m (KC, 2M, 7/27)
17. Raimel Flores, SS, DO, DPL (Signed: Bos, 900K)
18. Franmil Reyes, LF, DO: TX rumored to be in on him but not anymore
25. Carlos Tocci, CF, VZ: eligible August, a lot of late buzz on showcase circuit; Sardinas-like build. Philly the FR at 750k
27. Antonio Senzatela, RHP, VZ: +92-93, very BA secs; Rockies FR at 400k; visited Cleveland acad in DO for 1wk in early May (Signed: CO, ~400K)
28. Mauricio Silva, RHP, VZ: eligible 7/24; +93, good CB, feel for change. Cross your fingers on this guy; ranked too low.
30-40: 7 of the last 11 are still unsigned.

When you already have the world, why not ask for more? I want a hard-throwing righty, a shortstop, a catcher, and a third baseman. Really though who are the guys left from Badler's lists and articles that I like:

4.. Roberto Osuna: if the scouts love him so do I; if they don't, its the body stupid
28. Mauricio Silva: late buzz; if his body is good and offers a little more projection, I'd spend their money like that (6.1/190); too low on Bad's list.
38. Soid Marquez, RHP VZ: late buzz similar profile and frame as Mendez, with the CB being his 2nd pitch, and its a good one; seems too low on Bad's list.
17. Raimel Flores, SS, DO, 5.9/155: A slightly bigger Leury Garcia starter kit who might profile as a better hitter and have a ceiling higher than a utility inf (or just a higher ceiling, period, what with LG on his way to his 3rd straight 50 error-paced season). Signs with Boston for 900k!
UR. Gustavo Perinan, IF/LF, CO: Sounds like a Drew Robinson starter kit; have i told you how much i like the D-Rob? If this kid can play 3b, the man-crushing can begin. He also fits the profile of Texas' low 6-figure LA hitters over the last few years (the only ones that they have had success with): good feel for baseball, hitting, defense, fundamentals, low ceiling, high floors - Chirino, Villanueva, Herrera, Alberto, Telis, T-Mart.
UR. Ronniel Demorizzi, SS, DO, Under-Armour kid, good actions, strong arm, good feel for D, SH; bat behind D. Not enough info to speculate about the present/future grade of the bat...

Martinez is an intriguing RF but has very bad hitting mechanics to go with plus power and bat speed; seems like boom/bust type. Given that Seattle seems to be on him for more than 1.5m, I don't think hes' in the budget, and Mazarro might (is?) already be that high risk guy. Reyes is another big kid, big power, bad athlete type, who hits in games better than Martinez, is a LF/1B kinda guy like Guzman, but if he can be had for under 7-figures, you might do it. If you can sign a bat with plus raw power who slips a couple of dollar tiers, sign'em if you can. Mondesi's ceiling just doesn't sound that high, though he's a solid SS prospect, just no stand-out tools, so, just say no at 7 figures and sign a more sexy, raw, toolsy SS for less instead. Tocci is interesting but at 6.2/150 he will hit for BA power, may not gain any weight, and doesn't seem to have great bat speed; he does have plus plus speed however and a nice swing and makes nice contact. He's raw, and very young (some guys turned 16 last October while he won't until August), and might not have a great deal of high level competitive game experience. I'd sign him if the price was right gut the Phil's seem to love him (price war starts at 750k) and we already have about 5 other CF burners who might or might not be good at baseball.

Raw and Toolsy types:
31. Manny Gonzo, RHP DO: big frame, 6.4/205, nice FB, feel for secs, lost helium by deadline but unsure why- maybe he's not projected to add much velo even with frame?
37. Yario Munoz, SS, DO: plus speed, arm, SH, agility, good range; raw on defense and not as good a feel for hitting compared to others on the list; project
39. Jonathan Perez, RHP, VZ: projectable righty, 85-89+90, Raw secs, good feel, smooth mechanics, athletic; seems like a guy you sign if the money makes cent$. (Update: 825K, Reds.)

Intrigues:
Erick Hurtado, LHP, DO, 6.4/200, high 80's, IPL, feel for CB, RAW
Carlos Rody, LHP, VZ, 86-89, limited projection, strike thrower, good feel, CU 2nd pitch, CB grade varies from fringy to promising, head jerk, throws across body a bit.
JR. Flores, RHP, VZ, 6.1, lanky, 86-89, good CB, mech. inconsistencies
Mitchell Martez, big 3b from Aruba, project; Uh_Roo_buh. All your 3B projects should be from a three-syllable island.
Jhoan Urena, SH, 3B, 6.1/185, DO: Line Drive swing, good arm, COPABE, tournies
Victory Rey, 6.2/175, 3B, DO: line drive swing, gap power, tournies, hits for average in game action
Catchers: They're all gone. Texas has a VZ catcher pipeline though, so I'm positive they will sign a low 6-figure kid, an Oropeza type.

######

Texas j2 step: BAM!

2011-07-04T02:40:00.039-05:00

If you have been under a rock, Texas has likely signed the following players per multiple sources:

Nomar Mazara (DO), COF, 4.95m
Reportedly flies out Tuesday with family for Wed PC.
Ronald Guzman (DO), LF/1B, 3.45m
DPL PC Monday. In Texas for PC on Thursday.
Yohander Mendez (VZ), LHP, 1.5m
Pedro Payano (DO) RHP, 650k
Signing confirmed; Bonus confirmed.
Eduar Pinto (VZ) CF, 300k

Texas also has reported interest in IF/OF Gustavo Perinan (CO) and RHP Roberto Osuna (MX) that we know of.
I have a few notes on these confirmed and purported signings on this historical j2 day for Texas in the "Draft/j2" workbook in the sidebar. I'll post some the main parts about Mazara and Guzman here. Any notes about tools comes from secondary sources like BA's Badler unless otherwise noted. I will add to his section (or pin it) and revise it as I gather more information, until I lose interest...

First, I should note that I came across an article on Mexican RHP Roberto Osuna, that noted he touched 95 (91-95) at his last showcase/workout on 6/24 with 2 Texas scouts ( John Booher y Gil Kim) attendance. Now, while his body is not dreamy - a Vicente Padilla meets Warner Madrigal via Vicente "Edwin" Escobar type - he offers now stuff, as long as his secs are as advanced as they appear to be. Texas usually doesn't go for this type of dude but I thought I'd throw that info out there.

Nomar Mazara (DO) LH, LF/RF, 6.4/195
School: Jesus in Action, Ivan Noboa (~2009)
Teams: MLB RBI (DO)
Shows elite power in BP, an elite leg kick and elite whiffs. Average arm - enough arm for RF? Has anyone seen him play over the last few years in varied and truly competitive settings? Has he played in national, regional or international tournies, youth leagues, travel teams, etc? Does he have a good feel for the game? He has indeed played in youth leagues at least since 13 as well as in the RBI program alongside Guzman last yr but has not played in any of the DO leagues during his age 15 year and appears to have only been showcased, with limited exposure to live pitching (maybe as far back as September). Texas might have given him a general promise in February that took him off the circuit a bit but it still doesn't xplain why he skipped the first half of any league, Nov-Jan. Texas must know him very well and better than most (though it isn't clear why); it's a signing that makes or breaks careers.

Various sources: well educated religious (military-political) family; played in La Liga Javilla (Little League I guess, possibly private given his family's station) in Santo Domingo) from young age through the age 13_14 division then switched to Noboa at age 14. Noboa's academy is called "Jesus in Action", so, Mazara should fit in with very well with all of the other little Ranger evangelists. Has played on travel teams and regional and intl tournies, showcases, etc. though the timeline is unclear. Source: Dad a former admiral who seems to have some ties to PRD's 2012 candidate. Was 6.1/140 at 13, 6.1/180 at 14, now 6.3-6.5/185-200. My guess is that Texas has followed him right around the time he turned 13, when he sprouted to 6.1 and started hitting HR to 365 in his little league park, so, say 2-3 years. I don't think there is any doubt that TX has done their homework on this kid, and that the competition with other big market teams was very real, as were the money rumors, and Texas won out. This is no Esdras Abreu (and who knows if TX even has the same scouts there that they had in 2007- I bet they do not.)

Quotes:
Hoy, por Soldevila
ESPN Deportes, Rojas
ListinDiario, por Briceno
Noboa Interview (w/cult-figure pic), por B4ses
Rangers' Presser
BP at the Ballpark
ESPN Dallas Quotes
Jon Daniels interveiw
Daniels Interview II

UPDATE:
According to at least one local report, Texas did not start following him until he was around 14 and 6.1/180, about the time he switched to Noboa, so that is not more than 2 years and maybe less than 1 year of truly competitive ball; is not uncommon for teams to follow a player for 3 or more years. The last time he played competitively seems to have been in the PG showcase last August before being limited to the workout/tryout/BP/academy scene for the 10 months prior to j2 2011. I find this a little unnerving, not playing in any of the multiple leagues during his age 15_16 year, but he could've stayed with any one academy for up to 30 consecutive days during that time so it is likely that he did a little of this for those few (~10-12) teams willing to drop 7 figures on LA kids. Clearly, as a signing stratagem, it didn't hurt him a bit, but as a fan, it doesn't give you as much to hang your hat on as, say, Guzman, for example.

Ronald Guzman (DO) LH, LF/1B, 6.5/205(!!!!)
Agency: La Academia, Eddy Robles (~2006)
Teams: DPL, MLB RBI (DO), Under Amour
Very advanced hitter; doesn't even seem to be an average athlete - looks a little goofy/gangly (long arms, legs, loping long-strider) but good def. instincts apparently, LF arm. Hopefully the same scouts who questioned his bat speed aren't the same ones who also noted the same thing about another Texas power hitter turned bust, Esdras Abreu. Given the prominent stage he has been on, I would suspect that such criticism is unlikely to be true. HS grad, an uncommon merit for any DO teen along this "career" trajectory. As (if) he fills out (more), will a move to 1B be in order? Given the athleticism and plus bat speed carried by Elio Hernandez, and Texas' general inclination to toolsy OF, TX must really believe in his bat (and his future power?). Was listed at 6.4/170 at age 15, now variously reported in the 6.4-6.5/ 185-200 range. I don't know, if he puts on another 25 pounds, he'll probably end up at 1B. With Robles/LA since age 11.

DPL Profile
Presser
DPL Elite (PG)
DPL Elite (DPL)
Brief Interview (ENG)

Yohander Méndez, LHP, VZ, ~6.2-6.5/170-175
I've heard two figures on him: 1.2m and 1.5m. I'm thinking like Texas on this kid: he is the most projectable lefty on Badler's list so I don't mind missing on a Sanchez or Osuna if we got him. A few snippets about this kid, some months old, indicated that he really impressed during his April showcases/workouts with his command in addition to the late velo jump reported by Ben badler (high 80's +90). However, there was another report that he didn't look all that great at the MLB showcase held in San Jaoquin on 4/9 but may have looked good in a showcase in Valencia earlier in that week. As in the previous reports, the changeup appears to be his second best pitch and he can spin a curve. One report from gringo scouts said that he sat 86 early in the spring but was RAW (contrary to Badler's profile). He is from Luis Blasini's Academy in Valencia.

Here is a note from El Nacional, 4/9/11:
“Entre los pitchers zurdos, Méndez es el mejor”, sentenció un scout de la Liga Nacional. “Mide 1,90 (metros de estatura) y la recta puede tirarla, consistentemente, entre 85 y 88 millas por hora, pero la han medido en 89. Puede soltar la pelota en varios ángulos y la curva tiene un gran radio, mientras que posee una buena opción con el cambio. Cuando lo entrene un pitching coach de un equipo profesional, mejorará su mecánica y por consiguiente el comando-control. Cuando proyectas sus habilidades a cinco o seis años, te encuentras con un muy buen lanzador”.

###########

Texas j2 step

2011-07-01T19:03:00.007-05:00

Here is Ben Badler's take (sub.) on which j2 kids that Texas might be in on. Based on his previous writeups, I don't see any Sanchez, Sano, Mateo type talents, which is a bit disappointing, given that Texas has the cash to go 3m on that type of guy if there was one. Nor does it seem like there are a lot of high-ceiling Cuban guys in the wings waiting for visas (or disguises). I'm sure they will drop some coin, but for whom and how they choose to do so is the question, especially given their weird draft strategy. If there is no one that has a higher likely ceiling than Leonys Martin, maybe they won't sign a 3 million dollar man, and instead pursue the three million dollar men strategy from 2009 (including Alfaro with that class).

"Texas Rangers: Though they dealt with an ownership situation in flux for most of 2010, the Rangers remained active internationally. Colombian catcher Jorge Alfaro, a January 2010 signing, is already in the short-season Northwest League, as is Venezuelan shortstop Rougned Odor (technically a January 2011 sign). The Rangers didn't have a first-round pick this year, though they got a first-round talent in Cuban center fielder Leonys Martin already. On the July 2 market, their priority appears to be Dominican outfielder Ronald Guzman, who should command one of the top bonuses in Latin America. Several international sources also expect Venezuelan lefthander Yohander Mendez to sign with the Rangers. Beyond those two, the Rangers could also be involved with Dominican outfielder Franmil Reyes, Colombian shortstop Gustavo Perinan and Venezuelan outfielder Eduar Pinto, among a host of other players they'll likely add for low six-figure amounts."

Note: sub. link added...

########

Minor Notes, Deux

2011-06-21T12:56:00.003-05:00

Eric Hurley
Hurley made his first rehab start since getting his skull cracked by a line drive back in his first AAA start. Bad luck follows this kid. Anyways, he looked pretty good and pitched 4 innings, longer than I thought he would go. His FB command vs RHH was very good while he couldn't locate well vs LHH. He got a few SS on his slider and one on a nasty change vs a LHH but not many on his FB. His velo sat in the high 80's much like it did in ST, 87-91, sitting around 88-90. His slider was in the 81-83 range and that nasty change was at 82.

Hopefully over the next 30 days of his rehab we'll see his velo range increase, though I wouldn't expect too much as his previous pattern was to throw sit 88-90 the first few innings, while pitching 90-93 as the game progresses. He may or may not find his old velo due to his shoulder surgery, so this is not a given. One thing he did show in spring training is that he has progressed as a pitcher, showing much improved command of his arsenal in ST, and wielding the best changeup in his career which seems like it could already be a solid average pitch.

Maybe his ceiling is a #5 now, whereas before I though it was a #4 when he still had a fringy changeup and gave up a lot of HR and his velo was only average. If he proves to be more of a pitchability guy, with an average FB, a solid average change, and a solid average, possible above average slider, all three of which he can command better than average, that should be considered a success story given his injuries. We can also dream that his velo will flash 92-95 in brief stints, like it did during his AFL stint last year.

Spokane Notes
Richard Alvarez had a rough 2011 debut but did show his advanced secondary stuff. The strikeouts that I was able to note were as follows: Nasty CU SOS; CB CSO; High FB SOS; High CB SOS. The only velo note was 89 in the first. A fringy FB with inconsistent command will be what RA has to work on for now; his secs seem just fine.

Jose Monegro was very impressive in relief. It he may have busted out 4 pitches during his 3.2IP. He was 90-93 with strikeouts on the following pitches: CB CSO; CB CSO; CU SOS. One pitch was called as a slider. He's a little old for this level and should end up in Hickory by season's end.

After a disastrous debut, Chris Hanna pitched a scoreless inning with his lone strikeout coming on a nasty CU. Just a couple of other notes: Ruben Sierra still takes violent hacks; Guillermo Pimentel still needs to work on his routes in CF but has one of the best arms in the system. He's an org guy in my book.

Frisco: Velo Notes
Adalberto Flores: 89, 91 SOS; 77 Slurve; 82 CU

#######

Major Notes

2011-06-21T11:30:00.003-05:00

APRIL
16-11/.593/140r/114ra/+26
First 10: 9-1/.900/55r/26ra/+29
Next 17: 7-10/.418/85r/88ra/-3

MAY
13-15/.464/116r/112ra/+4

JUNE
10-9/.526/88r/92ra/-4
Projected Junes Totals
14-13/.526/125/131/-6

Totals: April 12- June 20
30-34/.469/289r/292ra/-3

########

Minor Notes

2011-06-21T09:56:00.005-05:00

Webb Notes:
Evan Grant once again puts too much stock in Webb, as he has since his signing. He still hasn't learned to ignore what Webb says about himself. I watched Webb's terrible outing in its entirety and he was indeed terrible. It was Webb himself who said that he felt great and that he think he hit, "oh, I don't, know, 87, or 85..", on the gun. He didn't sniff 87 and sat 83 with no command of any of his pitches. Anyways here is Grant drinking some of the Webb cool aid:

Though right-hander Brandon Webb didn’t last a full inning for Frisco in his start Sunday, reports suggest his outing wasn’t nearly as ugly as his line. He was charged with six hits and four runs in a 36-pitch inning, two-out start, but club officials said reports suggested he had solid movement on his pitches and touched 87 mph on the radar gun. The majority of his fastballs were in the 82- to 86-mph range, but they did have more life than in previous outings. Nonetheless, Webb’s return to the majors remains an uncertainty.

Spokane:
Spokane starter Victor Payano battled out of jams in the first and second innings and settled down for an effective outing.
“He got behind a few hitters and lost it for a little bit, but then he found it again,” Hulett said. Closer Matt West was impressive in the ninth, getting the Volcanoes (1-1) in order. Of his 11 pitches, 10 were 93 mph or faster. He reached 97 on his second pitch. “I think he was a little stiff tonight,” Hulett said, grinning. “Wait until he gets warm.”

“It seems like when there’s nobody on base our offensive game plan gets a little fuzzy,” said Hulett of the whiffs. “As a team we’re very young,” said Nicholas. “So it’s going to take some getting used to the crowd. A lot of these guys haven’t played in a stadium (before).”

Express:
"It's all behind me," he said. "You can't help but think about it (the injury). When something like that happens, I don't care what anybody says, you're going to think about it when you get out there. That's the last thing you want to happen again is get in the head."

Frisco:
The RoughRiders have a nice game notes blog that I have pinned in the sidebar but just in case you haven't checked it out, it is here: Chatter from the Pressbox

Pelicans:
"It was a tough road trip but we have to put it behind us," Myrtle Beach center fielder Ryan Strausborger, who went 3-for-4 with three RBIs, said before the game. "We can't wait around for help. We have to take care of business ourselves."

In their first half-season as the Texas Rangers Advanced-A minor league affiliate, the Pelicans are postseason bound.

Dads:
“I’ve never seen a group of guys over the last two-and-a-half or three weeks with bigger drive and a will to win,” said Crawdads’ manager Bill Richardson to his assembled team gathered outside the clubhouse after the Grasshoppers’ loss. “You’ve earned it! This is your night! Enjoy!”

“The first couple of innings everything was working,” said Buckel, who turns 19 on Saturday. “Everything I was throwing I was throwing for a strike and I was getting ahead early and putting guys away when I needed to.

“I was pretty pumped about that,” said Jackson in appreciation of his coaches. “I was struggling and they stuck with me and I was able to get out of it with the help of my defense.”

“It’s a lot of card playing.” said Roof. “And during those card playing there’s a lot of stories about all of the family members having all kinds of stories to tell us about when they were growing up and playing and the stories of who the guys they were playing with and all that.”

We know we are young, but this is a talent contest,” said Skole. “It doesn’t matter if there’s a 23-year-old on the mound… He’s not going to do anything different to you because you are 18.”

######

AZL Roster

2011-06-20T10:55:00.003-05:00

Jason Cole has gotten hold of a copy of the roster for the AZL club. I have updated the M&M roster. There are only a few things of note:

1. Justin Jamison is back. The 6ft 8inch super raw HS draftee from 2009, who signed for around 100k was suspended for some reason for the 2010 season. Missing a year of development probably limits his ceiling but he was a longshot anyways.
2. Sardinas and Robinson are on the roster. Not sure if they are really on the roster or are still DL'd. Robinson is way to advanced for the league and I would say the same thing about Sardinas, so we'll see if they play. If they are healthy they won't be there for long.
3. Luis Mendez. Diminutive Dominican SS sign (75k) from 2009 makes his stateside debut.
4. Blackwell, Rijo and Mavare repeat, which is a bit of a surprise. They all did well there last year so I would not expect them to stick around long. Could be the victims of a fecund system, waiting for space to open up on a more advanced club.
5. Kevin Johnson demoted due to his struggles in Hickory.
6. Faulkner, Matthews, Devore still not listed on the roster though all have signed.

#########

Minor Notes

2011-06-19T21:04:00.007-05:00

Velo Notes
Hunter: 92, 93
Pimentel: 93
Lamb: 92, struck out side, threw all 3 pitches (tex2044)
Santo Perez: 93, lots of ground balls (shroom)
Wieland: "mostly" 88-90+91, 74-78, 82 SL (Lucas)
Jackson: 92-95 (93), 78-81, 84 (one) (Lucas)
David Perez: 92-96 early, 89-92 late (tex2044)
Bell: 91-93 (Lucas)
Gomez: 88-93 (Lucas)

Webb
Looked terrible. Left meatballs high in the zone and got whacked. Failed to get out of the first. Was supposed to go 4 or 65 pitches, but got only 2 outs on about 35. Couldn't throw a strike with any of his pitches. Sat 83, touched 84 and 85 once each.

Scheppers
CB Looked great. FB command was great in 1st inning, everything low in zone, missing high more in 2nd inning of work. 94-96, mostly 95-96.

IST INNING
1. (vs LH)
FB SS 96, FB SS 95, CB B OSC 83, FB SOS 95
2. (RH)
CB SS 84, FB LOW, FB SS UP & IN 96, CB F, CB GO SHORT
3. (LH)
FB CS 96, CB BOUNCES 80, FB F, FB F, CB SOS FT
2ND INNING
1. (LH)
CB CS, BB (SLIDER OR FLAT CB) LOW, FB F, CB F, CB CSO
2. (LH)
FB SS 95, FB HIGH OS, FB SS, FB WAY HIGH, CB FT (BARELY), FB AO SHALLOW LF
3.
FB HIGH 95, FB HIGH, FB CS 94, FB F, CB CSO

Joe Wieland
"His fastball is his predominant pitch and his curveball is a putaway option. But now he has a slider he can throw for strikes whenever he wants. The sllider is above the changeup now. He can throw it for strikes and create action on it with tilt and depth. It tends to find the bottom of the bat. His changeup, it's a useable pitch, but it isn't consistent." (Brad Holman)

Julio Borbon
Missed cut off man...

##########

Draft Notes

2011-06-17T14:48:00.002-05:00

Kevin Matthews and Zach Cone officially signed for slot, 936k and 873k respectively.

#####

Clark Murphy

2011-06-17T05:08:00.003-05:00

I wondered what happened to Clark Murphy. Apparently he was in extended when his brother was involved in a near-fatal car crash on April 23. Texas put him on a plane and he was back home within 5 hours of the accident. They told him he could take the year off if necessary. His brother is now out of a coma, but has severe head trauma and other injuries that will last a lifetime.

Here are a couple of stories that I dug up:

April 23
May 31

######

Draft notes

2011-06-15T11:39:00.011-05:00

BA has noted the signing bonuses for the following 3 players:

8th round, Kyle Hendricks, 125k
9th round, Rashard Harlin, 100k
10 round, Joe Maloney, 90k

Various sources note that 2nd rounder Will Lamb has signed for slot, 430,200.

UPDATE:
14th round HS LHP Andrew Faulkner has signed per TR Sullivan. Given his ceiling, I would bet that he signed for late second to early third round money, let's say 325k.

UPDATE:
It will be Santo Perez and not Carlos Melo filling out the Spokane rotation, per the Spokesman. This is actually really good news as it indicates that Texas believes in SP as an SP. In 2008, according to multiples sources, his FB sat in the 88-91 area, touching 92. Jason Cole noted recently that he is now 90-93, bumping 94 and 95 (in spring training I believe). The reports on his secondary stuff in 2008 were not unanimous, but his curveball was his second pitch. So, well see in 5 days or less how the guy looks.

##########

AZL/Spokane

2011-06-13T22:37:00.008-05:00

Victor Payano and Santo Perez (85k, 2010) assigned to the AZL club.

Scott Lucas got an advanced copy of the Spokane roster and both Payano and Perez are on it. I guess the transfer of both of the guys to the AZL club was just a paperwork issue...

Whatever the case, the M&M roster has been updated.

There are a few mild surprises. Hanser Alberto, Rougned Odor and Victor Payano might have been expected to debut in AZ but given their impressive performances in extended (per Jason Cole) it seems the Texas staff felt that they could handle the challenging assignment. Victor Payano's velo increased from the 87-89 range to touching the low 90's. Given Payano's skinny frame, this was a bit of a surprise, as one would think that an increase might not come along until he put on some weight in a year or two, but, well, there it is. Both Alberto and Odor continue to impress with their hit tools. Hiro Onaka also hit well in extended per Cole.

The starting roto will be: David Perez, Richard Alvarez, John Kukuruda, Carlos Melo, Victor Payano. I'm not a big fan of Alvarez, a high 80's smallish righthander with good secs- seems like a #5 type - but Jason Parks loves the guy, so we'll see how he does. The biggest challenge he'll face will be higher up in the minors with that fringy FB, but you would expect him to put up some good #s in the low minors given his secs, as long as his FB command is above average. He had some injury problems in 2010 so he didn't get a good look.

The biggest thing about the pitching staff to take note of here is that there could be as many as 5 other guys guys there who project as starters, and 2 more who might be on the reserve squad (waiting for a promotion to lowA, or who could be injured): Juan Grullon, Chris Hanna, Lobo, Hendricks, Santo Perez (and Zike Rijo, Shawn Blackwell). Now most of these likely have back roto ceilings but a #5 is a #5, even though fans vastly underestimate the value of back roto arms; there were only about 130 decent starters in the bigs last year so there is great value there. David Perez, Victor Payano, and Carlos Melo are the high ceiling guys here. Melo is still young but he does need to show some consistency if not put up some dominant #s in his second year in Spokane. His ceiling might have taken a bit of a knock, as his velo dropped a tick last year (90-93) but it will be a couple of years before we can say where he will sit, with the progression of his secs being the most important factor one would think. Remember that Texas pushes their youngest high ceiling guys hard, including their Latin kids, so repeating a level does not carry the same warning signs for them as it might for a US kid. Furthermore, Texas will stick with their kids as starters until they prove incapable of starting, so Melo will stick in the roto for a few more years at least.

I would think that Will Lamb would be added to the roster when he signs, and, one would hope that he has a starter's ceiling, though they could be thinking of him as a lefty closer. He really has only pitched during his Jr year (23ip) so he'll have his innings carefully managed at whatever level he makes his debut. Both Cone, Lamb and Matthews are rumored to have already signed so expect Cone to be added to the roster as soon as opening day.

The biggest omissions were Luis Sardinas, Drew Robinson, and Jordan Akins. Luis Sardinas is still rehabbing from off-season surgery (~Oct) for a shoulder separation while Drew Robinson is recovering from a broken finger. Cole has noted that Robinson was hitting really well in extended at the time of his injury and that he likely has been moved to 3b for now. It is a little surprising that Sardinas is not healthy by now; maybe we;ll see him debut as a DH shortly after the season starts. And I love Drew Robinson as a hitter; he is the opposite of the typical Rangers' draft pick, more like a Robbie Erlin, or a Codie Buckel than a Jordan Akins - advanced hitting tools, limited ceiling, high floor. Akins appears to need more seasoning, which isn't good news, but not unexpected. He's a great athlete, but it isn't yet clear that he's good at baseball.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a few guys left off of the roster to be promoted to A-ball when the AZL schedule begins, with other promotions coming throughout the system as a result.

Wildcard of note: Santo Angel Perez. Formerly known as 16yo Santo Franco in 2008, who signed with the Cards for 570k before being suspended for age/identity fraud for the 2009 season. Now known as 22yo Santo Angel Perez, who signed with TX in May of 2010 for 85k as a 21yo. He made 11 starts in the DSL last year and pitched pretty well:
12g/11gs -2.59/ 59/47/ 0/9/ 41/2.27g_a/.210baa

Given his age, he might only be a bullpen arm at this point. Here are some reports from 2008, where he was originally listed at 6.7/190 and now at 6.5/200, so he's a big kid but that is as big as he'll likely get given his age. He would've been ~19.4yo at the time these reports were written:
“Franco has potential to be a top of the rotation starter someday in the big leagues and very few pitchers have his combination of size, stuff, and pitchability at such a young age," said Juan Mercado, Scouting Supervisor for Latin America.

“Franco pitched two innings in the game at our complex in the DR. The first pitch out of his hand was 90 but he was mostly 88 to 89. Our local scouts have seen him many times and have recorded him up to 92. He is an impressive guy physically. Tall, loose and lean - a great profile for a Dominican pitcher. He wasn't trying to strike everybody out... he wanted to make his pitches and get outs. Our DSL players mostly put the ball in play but didn't hit anything hard, and there were a few swing and miss pitches - one on a change up and one on a breaking ball. He let a few go well outside the zone, but that happens with these young pitchers that are still working on grips and trying different pitches. With proper instruction, he has the potential to have three plus pitches and be durable. He does profile as a starter.”

Franco's velocity has grown from 88-89 mph to 90-91 mph, touching 92 with good sink and armside run. His present velocity and long, lanky frame scream projection on his fastball, which should be a plus pitch in the future if not even plus-plus.
However, Franco is almost completely projection right now, as the rest of his game is still raw. He has flashed a solid-average breaking ball, but mostly the pitch is inconsistent and his changeup is non-existent. One scout said that Franco might be asking for $1 million, but that it would take an overzealous team to match that price. "We liked him," said another international scouting director. "He had a good arm, but he doesn't have a breaking ball. It's not really a good pitch—he's more suited for a slider with his arm action because he's long in the back. He's the prototypical projection guy with a big arm."

Franco has a great build for a pitcher (6-5, 175). His fastball (88-90 mph) has yet to reach its potential, but he has shown good command of his changeup and curve. He has looked better in real games than in exhibitions.

DRAFT NOTE:
BA notes that 12th round bullpen arm Greg Williams signed for 125k. Slot after the 5th round is flexible, but defined by MLB as not more than 140k as the slot for the last pick of the 5th round is about 145k.

#####

Updates

2011-06-12T07:13:00.006-05:00

I've got projected rosters up for the short season clubs, including likely (and desired) signs. I would expect 4-5 UDFA signs to help stock the AZL rosters as they will be a bit thin, given the lack of Seniors taken in the draft, and given that the other players who are especially intriguing likely won't sign (if at all) until the deadline: Pentecost, Fisher, Costen, Fish. I also have a new summary worksheet up for this year's draft in the "Draft/J2" workbook in the sidebar.

Just a note on the anticipated stateside debuts coming from our DSL pipeline:
Franky Lugo, AZL
Rougned Odor, AZL
Hanser Alberto (likely AZL, possibly Spokane)
Jorge Alfaro, A-
Carlos Oropeza, AZL
Luis Parra, AZL
Abel de los Santos, AZL
David Perez, (possible A-)
Victor Payano (possibly A-)
Santo Angel Perez (possibly A-)

Other US debuts:
Leonys Martin (in progress, AA)
Guy Edmonds, AZL
Nick Urbanus, AZL
Hiro Onaka, A- (and on to A if he rakes)

One Draft Note:
Count 7th round draft pick catcher Max Pentecost as a critical sign for TX, and really, all of their most intriguing, but difficult to sign HS hitters, given the lack of high ceiling position players in Texas' 2011 draft. He's recovering from TJ surgery but was ranked by Keith Law as a possible 2nd round pick before his injury in mid-April (Keith Fagg was at that very game in fact). They should give him 2nd round money if that's what it will take to sign him; the catcher depth in the system is not great, especially given the problems that Deglan and Felx are having hitting so far this year.

######

Robbie Ross

2011-06-11T11:46:00.004-05:00

As no one seems to care about Robbie Ross' outing last night, he also had a no-hit bid, taking it through 5.2 innings before some loser got a bunt single off of him. He is also the first Rangers' prospect to take 3 starts into the 8th inning this year, which he has done consecutively, over his last 3 starts, thank you very much. Robbie Ross is a better prospect than Matt Thompson jut in case there was any confusion.

Heard a report from someone over at LSB who was at the game that Erlin was high 80's (scout's guns) much of the game, but did touch the low 90's after the 5th, I heard "90" from the away feed during that time. I'm really interested to see how that FB plays in the upper minors. Does he have the ceiling of a 2_3, a 3, a 3_4, a 4...? Should be an interesting ride.

""""""""""

Signings

2011-06-10T16:19:00.001-05:00

06/10/11
Texas Rangers signed SS Ryan Rua.
Texas Rangers signed RHP Taylor Dennis.
Texas Rangers signed OF Christopher Grayson.
Texas Rangers signed RHP Phil Klein.
Texas Rangers signed OF Saquan Johnson.
Texas Rangers signed OF Trever Adams.
Texas Rangers signed LHP Gregory Williams.
Texas Rangers signed OF Jeremy Williams.
Texas Rangers signed OF Rashad Harlin.
Texas Rangers signed C Joseph Maloney.
Texas Rangers signed 1B Matt Leeds.
Texas Rangers signed RHP Chance Sossamon.
Texas Rangers signed RHP Kyle Hendricks.
Texas Rangers signed RHP Kenneth Wiser.

6/10/11
OF Rashad Harlin assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Jeremy Williams assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Gregory Williams assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Matt Leeds assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Kenneth Wiser assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Saquan Johnson assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
RHP Kyle Hendricks assigned to Spokane Indians from Texas Rangers.
Trever Adams assigned to Spokane Indians from Texas Rangers.
Chance Sossamon assigned to Spokane Indians from Texas Rangers.
Christopher Grayson assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Ryan Rua assigned to Spokane Indians from Texas Rangers.
Phil Klein assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Taylor Dennis assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.
Joseph Maloney assigned to AZL Rangers from Texas Rangers.

#####

2nd, 3rd day picks

2011-06-07T15:28:00.006-05:00

The picks are coming fast and furious for Texas now, too fast to keep up with. Over the next few days I'll be posting all of the information that I can find on each pick. Folks over at LSB are busy rooting up links, and I'm sure that Ming over at TNR is systematically digging up articles in obscure local papers. I'll be collating all of their finds as well as my own into summary profiles for each pick, so if you want all of your info in a readily accessible format, this will be the place to get it, but will be a few days in the offing. The Mavs game comes first though...GO MAVS!

Oh, and if you don't currently subscribe to Jason Cole's site, now is the perfect time to do so. He will have interviews with all of the high profile picks. If you don't want the yearly script, you can just go the monthly route. It is well worth it if your are a draftnik or if you are obsessive-compulsive about the minors.

Oh, one other thing: I LOVE TREVOR BAUER. Serious mancrush. If there wasn't a pitcher more suited to be a Texas Ranger then one will never exist.

######

Law on Texas

2011-06-07T05:15:00.001-05:00

The picks: Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37),

"Summary: Zach Cone has big tools, but they just don't play, exacerbated by a bad leak out front at the plate, and he was wildly overmatched in the Team USA trials last summer and on the Cape the year before (his only real experience hitting with wood). Kevin Matthews is a tough-sign high school lefty who projects as a reliever because of his frame. That seems the opposite of what you'd expect from a nascent, big-market club such as the Rangers, especially since they were linked to several big-ticket, high-ceiling high school kids."

#######

#37. Zach Cone, JR, CF, Georgia

2011-06-06T22:30:00.007-05:00

#37. Zach Cone, JR, CF, Georgia 6.2/205

Baseball America:
86. Zach Cone, of Georgia
"Cone looks like a big leaguer but hasn't played like one this season. After hitting .363 as a sophomore, he was batting .283/.343/.382 as a junior, and scouts were saying more than just the new bats were at play. He appears to lack trust in his hitting ability, swinging early in counts and getting out on his front foot too often. Scouts question his pitch recognition, and he has drawn just 33 walks in three seasons. Cone's other tools range from good to outstanding. He's a plus runner with above-average range in center field. He has understandably played with less abandon after an early-season collision in the outfield that left teammate Jonathan Taylor in the hospital and partially paralyzed with a neck injury. He gets good enough jumps and reads in center field to profile as an above-average defender there. His arm has gone backward, playing fringe-average this spring after it was plus in the fall. Cone has solid raw power and strength, and ranks as one of the college ranks' best athletes, with physical ability comparable to fellow college outfielders such as Mikie Mahtook and George Springer. Even area scouts who see all his flaws expect Cone, who was a third-round pick out of high school in 2008, to improve on that by a round or so in 2011."

Perfect Game capsule:
97. ZACH CONE, of, University of Georgia (Jr.)
Superior athlete with 5-tool potential; 6.45 in 60, excellent OF, + raw bat speed, but very undisciplined hitter.

ESPN:
"Cone looks as good in the uniform as any college position player in this year's draft but the tools have never translated into on-field performance. He has bat speed and upper-body strength, but doesn't keep his head steady and has long had trouble recognizing off-speed stuff. He's an above-average runner who should be fine in left or right field in pro ball but needs to work on his reads. His spring was also affected after he collided with another Georgia outfielder, Jonathan Taylor, who was left partially paralyzed by the accident."

@keithlaw: I was on the phone with a scout when Cone was picked. And he started laughing.

TR Sullivan:
"Athletic outfielder Cone falls into Rangers' lap"

Taylor/Cone Collision (h/t Jason Cole)
ESPN, Schlabach

ESPN, Durrett
"This year was a little bit down for him and that's why he got down to where we picked him," Rangers director of amateur scouting Kip Fagg said. "I think if this guy had gone out and had a big year we probably wouldn't even be talking about him. We believe in our developmental staff here and we think this guy makes a couple of tweaks and it's off to the races with him."

######

#33. Kevin Matthews, LHP, HS GA

2011-06-06T22:14:00.010-05:00

Kevin Mathews, LHP, HS, GA

PG HT/WT 2011: 5.11/175
MLB HT/WT 2011: 5.11/180
PG HT/WT 2010: 5.10/165

Perfect Game (from 2010 National Showcase, 6/10)
"# 142. Kevin Matthews is a 2011 LHP/OF with a 5-10 165 lb. frame from Richmond Hill, GA who attends Richmond Hill. Smaller frame with some present strength. Well paced delivery with clean easy arm circle, accelerates well to the plate, quick arm through release, bit cross bodied, 3/4's release point, repeats mechanics very well. Steady 88-90 mph fastball gets on hitters quickly, big sweeping mid 70's curveball with very good size/depth, nice sink on change up. Good feel for all his pitches and how to locate. Should dominate LHH'ers at the next level and be immediately successful. Good student, verbal commitment to Virginia."

FB: 88-89+90
CB: 76
CU: 81

Velo from PG WWBA World Championship (10/10):
FB: 89-91+92
SL (?): 83
CU: 84

Baseball America
" 105. Kevin Matthews, lhpRichmond Hill (Ga.) HS
In a down year for Georgia, high school pitching was particularly weak. Matthews jumped out, and not just because his athleticism allows him to dunk a basketball despite his 5-foot-10, 160-pound frame. He's a slight but quick-armed pitcher whose fastball has touched 94-95 mph, though he's usually in the 87-90 range. He has not shown the ability to sustain above-average velocity with any consistency. His tight curveball gives him a solid-average secondary pitch. He hasn't shown much of a changeup. Matthews' handle on Twitter is "UVAbound11," which gives a hint at the strength his Virginia commitment. While some scouts compare him to such recent draft picks as Kasey Kiker and Robbie Ross (both now in the Rangers system), others liken him more to lefthanded relievers such as Billy Wagner (obviously with less velocity). The consensus is that he's a future reliever due to the effort in his delivery."

ESPN:
"Matthews is a very slight, unphysical left-hander with a strong commitment to Virginia who profiles best as a reliever in pro ball. He'll touch 94 but sits with an average fastball and lacks projection in his frame. The breaking ball comes and goes but will flash plus. He's a good athlete but an optimistic projection only gets him to an average fastball and he doesn't look like he'll be durable when going every fifth day."

TR Sullivan:
"Size doesn't matter, it's the motion"

Frankie Piliere
Now read this blurb carefully and tell me if you think a. Frankie is a Rangers' homer; b. Frankie may or may not have seen the kid last year, but certainly not this year; c. The "scouts in the area" he is talking about are the same "sources" we happen to be reading as well; d., the last sentence is awkwardly constructed and a classic example of the use of the "passive voice"; or e., all of the above:

"Sleeper: Most in the industry were surprised when Texas called Kevin Matthews’ name at 33rd overall. But, most of the initial reaction was very positive to the selection. Matthews has a smallish 5-foot-11 frame and is not overpowering, as he sat 88-90 mph with his fastball last summer, but it’s the advanced feel for pitching and his secondary pitches that leaves scouts impressed. Reports from scouts in the area have said that Matthews has shown more velocity this spring, and with that velocity coming around he has a chance to be a unique high school lefty with a combination of stuff and feel."

Fagg on Matthews:
"There are always exceptions to a rule and I think this kid is," said Kip Fagg, Rangers' director of amateur scouting. "This kid pitches with a chip and I like that...He's very athletic and a kid whose makeup is special," Fagg said. "We see big upside with him in a small frame. He's got athleticism, three-pitch mix, strikes, competitiveness. There are a lot of things you can say are special with this kid."

########

Guys that I like at 33 and 37

2011-06-06T20:58:00.003-05:00

Bell, HS OF (prob. LF)
Norris, HS LHP (if top roto upside)
Hedges, HS C (if you believe in his hit tool)
Chafin, LHP (if his CU grades out as ave right now)
Story, HS SS
Dickerson, HS 1b
Goodwin CF JC (if you buy his cf instincts, and that he'll hit for ave, and like his power)

Possible wild cards:
Fulmer, HS RHP, possibly close to 2 plus pitches (Projection? Soft?)
Crick, HS RHP, RAW, Big, Arm strength, poss 2 plus pitches later, (proj at 6.3/225?)
Smith, HS OF (possibly arm for RF), smooth bat, might have better than aver power

########

DSL Roster Set

2011-06-04T14:48:00.003-05:00

The DSL roster has been released and there are not really any changes from my projected roster. The sidebar roster has been updated so take a gander.

There will be a few players added in the coming weeks or over the course of the season as they may not have arrived due to paperwork/visa issues, may be injured, or may have been released/restricted.

######

Brandon Webb

2011-05-30T17:35:00.002-05:00

Looks like he sat about 82-84 today but didn't command his sinker very well, and it didn't have much sink. He only got 2 swinging strikes that were noted in the PxP, both on CB. He seemed to be able to throw his secondary offerings for strikes at least.

Velo readings
1st-
FB: 84, 85, 86
CB: 66
CU: 75
2nd-
FB: 81, 82
CB: 67, 67, 69
CU: 75
3rd-
FB: 83
4th-
FB: 84

#####

DSL Roster

2011-05-27T16:06:00.004-05:00

Just a reminder that I've a projected DSL roster up for the San Pedro Rangers, which includes their 2010 j2-eligible signs.

#######

Yu Darvish

2011-05-25T09:58:00.004-05:00

Pitch f/x from his latest start per NPBT. While the stadium guns are juiced and the pitch classifications are somewhat unreliable, pretty impressive. Most of his starts are streamed if you care to take a look. Prepare yourself for the slight cultural shock that will be caused by the ridiculous pitch counts.

#####

Nick Calathes

2011-05-24T12:33:00.002-05:00

Has a team option for next year with a 500k buyout. If the Mavs want him, he will be here next year. If not he will be added to the roster for the 12-13 season. He's added about 10-12 pounds, now at 195, and stands 6.5 in shoes. I think he would be a great combo guard off the bench. Not sure he is athletic enough to start but we'll see. Also, the really structured offense that he has been forced to run, will only make him a better player, as his real strength is the more wide-open US style.

Highlights from the Euro Final Four

Interview before the series.

########

WOW!

2011-05-24T09:44:00.005-05:00

Mavs win! Mavs win!

Also, I love Darius Morris, a player worth moving up into the draft to get, and a perfect complement to Rody "BoBo" Beaubois, who, as we all know is _not_ a point guard. Don't believe the mocks that have him hanging around the Mav's spot, he's lottery-type talent and even better in a system like this one and paired with the likes of BoBo. If he is around in the late teens the Mavs should do what it takes to get him.

Mavs win...

This is more exciting in more ways than one. Depending on what Junior (Donnie Nelson) does in the off-season, I might stop my "Fire Junior" campaign and finally lift my moratorium on writing about the mavs, who are, actually, my favorite sports team. While Junior's terrible track record with regard to player acquisitions and horrible contracts started to look more postive with the acquisition/signing of Butler, Stevenson, Chandler, Stojak, Brewer, Mahinmi, Haywood, and Marion (with the caveat that the last two signed for embarrassingly large contracts). The problem was, as I've written about before, his track record has been abysmal since Finley's last year with the team.

Anyways, GO MAVS!

#######

DSL

2011-05-23T14:14:00.001-05:00

The Dominican Summer League starts Saturday!

#####

Profar

2011-05-20T09:45:00.001-05:00

Ming over at TNR came across a nice piece on Profar.

######

BA picks Swihart

2011-05-14T17:51:00.003-05:00

BA projects TX to pick (sub) HS C Blake Swihart with the 33rd pick. Here are the 4 picks preceding that spot as well.

33. RANGERS: Texas focused on athletes in 2010 and figures to do so again this year, with more resources now that its ownership situation has settled. Swihart has the athletic ability and bat potential to be an asset even if he can't stay behind the plate.

Projected Pick: Blake Swihart.

32. Matt Purke
31. Kolten Wong
30. Tyler Anderson
29. Robert Stephenson

########

Minor League Splits

2011-05-14T13:38:00.003-05:00

I mentioned this in a post some 4-5 months ago (noting a fanpost over at LSB) but many still haven't seemed to pick up on it: Minor League Splits has been reborn, sort of. The rebirth is in skeleton form, not nearly as revolutionarily useful as the original, but as the only thing out there like it, as with its predecessor (who was sued or threatened with legal action by MLB or MiLB for use of proprietary data, as weird as that seems), it is still the only thing out there, and that makes it simply GREAT.

The reborn, slightly deformed twin can be found here (and linked in the Stats and Stuff section in the sidebar):

ML Splits

######

Andrew Doyle Suspended

2011-05-02T18:27:00.005-05:00

Andrew Doyle was suspended for 50 games for a second drug violation. At least now we know why he was suspended (internally it seems) last year, and why his career has gone in reverse. Doyle had the ceiling of a 3_4 starter so that is too bad. He'll have to figure things out or flame out...

There were a couple of other (internal) suspensions last year if I remember correctly. I wonder if there are a few other kids walking that narrow line. Ocampo was one;
he has released in ST.

#####

Jake Skole Interview

2011-04-28T20:23:00.001-05:00

7 Train to Shea has and interview up with Jake Skole.

######

Minor Notes

2011-04-27T13:58:00.007-05:00

Guys who could be activated in the next week or so:
Richard Bleier (AA), Inj
Omar Quintanilla (AAA), PEDs
Renny Osuna, (AA), Inj
Shane Zegarac (AA), Inj
ODLS (A+), inj (?)

Guys in extended whose status remains uncertain:
Clark Murphy (A)
Mitch Hilligoss (AA)
A. Selen (A)
Brett Nicholas (A)
Guillermo Pimentel (A)
Luis Sardinas (Spokane)

Pitchers in extended who could be activated at any time, if they are healthy:
Hickory: Zeke Rijo, Nick McBride, Juan Grullon, Brett Weibley, Jose Mavare, Jose Monegro, Ben Rowen, Ben Henry, Tony Haase
Hickory or HighA: Jimmey Reyes, Frankie Mendoza

Extended dudes seemingly destined for Short Season ball:
Tony Haase, Mike Thomas, Matt West, LDLS, Salvador Sanchez

Guys about whom I care not, currently inactive: Tim Stanford (no ceiling), Geuris Grullon (no pitchability), Miguel Velazquez (thug)

~ETA for DL guys to be activated:
Feldman, eligible 5/22, likely 6/1
Hunter, eligible now, ~ETA 5/18
Tobin, eligible 6/19, TBD
Hurley, eligible 6/19, likely 6/19
Feliz, eligible 5/6, TBD
Hambone, eligible 6/12, likely 6/12
Omar Beltre, eligible 5/22, TBD
Scheppers, out 2-3 weeks, ~ETA 5/10
Darren O'Day, 2-4 months
Font, eligible now, ~ETA Aug-Nov: Likely pitches in minors, instructs, AFL, and/or winter ball at some point this year

#######

Webb's shoulder

2011-04-26T07:03:00.009-05:00

Oh, and just to clarify any confusion that might exist about Webb's first appearance in game action in a Texas uniform (including his first appearance _ever_ in front of a gun): Webb "flashed" 84; He likely sat 82, and this after 2 years of rehab and arm-strengthening (his arm strength is not the issue, and hasn't been for almost a year now, despite what some writers might say). I say the chances of Webb making it to the roto this year are slim but at least it seems like he will be pitching on a full season league before the Trading Deadline so that is something, I guess...

The final blessing that we all received from his much belated "first pitch in a real game" (in extended no less) is that we can finally stop hearing all of the BS from beat writers, TX officials and coaches but particularly from Webb himself, about what a decisive turn of event (or setback) was his latest flat-ground throwing cession, each and every week. Thank the frackin' Gods.

UPDATE: WOW!!!
According to Jason Grey, who charted Webb's outing yesterday, things are even worse than they appeared at first glance. Webb actually on sat at 80 with his FB!, ranging between 78-81, "flashing" 82 and 84 once. WOW!! That is really terrible after 2 years of rehab work. And that is exactly where he sat during his simulated games and AFL work last August and September as well if not a tick slower. He was also throwing up some truly glacial secondary offerings as well, with a 71mph Change and a Curveball at 65 and 69. I don't know what to say...

the lone positive, well, I guess...although it stunk it sunk.

######

BA's on the board

2011-04-26T06:37:00.005-05:00

to make the Rangers' first pick and they go with Miami-Dade JC CF Brian Goodwin (if he projects to stay in CF).

BA's selection committee is convinced that TX will go with the most athletic position player on the board. This does indeed sound very Rangers-like, but an Org orientation that I hate. I think I'd really enjoy being a Minnesota fan - but only for draft day of course - as they draft zero-risk college guys in the top 3 rounds who have already attained a solid average major league ceiling and who will compete for a spot on the 25 out of their first spring training. Texas' gambles on high ceiling, high risk players has been a complete bust over JD's tenure. As I have written previously on this topic, I hope that Texas' strategy changes some this year on a # of fronts, with money to spend allowing TX to finally draft the BPA no matter the cost for the first time...ever. The biggest impediments against snagging a high ceiling, low risk super star, falling because of super star bonus demands can be counted on two fingers: the Nats and the BoSox's 2 picks (with the Cards, the Reds, the Blue Jays and possibly the Giants as less-likely competitors).

Anyways, I pay zero attention to college baseball in general, and only "play" draft once the BA top 200 profiles (and PG top 250) come out 2 weeks prior to the draft, so I know nothing about these kids at present. Whatever the case, here is an excerpt of their discussion of players at 33 and the 3 picks ahead of them just to contextualize who else might still be on the board depending on how things go:

33. RANGERS (Jim): Expect Texas to grab the best remaining athlete on the board at this point. Even with Fisher and Nimmo gone, that leaves Miami-Dade JC outfielder Brian Goodwin, Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.) catcher/third baseman Nicky Delmonico, New Trier HS (Winnetka, Ill.) outfielder Charlie Tilson and Central Catholic HS (Modesto, Calif.) outfielder Billy Flamion. Assuming the Rangers believe he can remain in center field, their pick is Goodwin, who wouldn't have been eligible for the 2011 draft had he not transferred from North Carolina.

32. RAYS (Conor): Speaking of not ignoring the hit tool, I really like East HS (Cheyenne, Wyo.) Brandon Nimmo for Tampa Bay's second straight pick. Nimmo's high school doesn't have a team, yet he's a sure thing to be the highest-drafted player ever out of Wyoming (current record holder William Ewing was an Angels fourth-rounder in 1976). Nimmo is one of the best pure hitters in this year's high school class. He's also an above-average athlete who won a state title in the 400-meter dash this year and runs a 6.54-second 60-yard dash.

31. RAYS (John): Tampa Bay's plethora of picks is well-publicized, as is its preference for athleticism. But they're not blind to the hit tool, either, and with so many picks, they can use a portfolio approach. That's why I'm taking C.J. Cron here. He's one of the best college bats in the draft, and he'll move quickly in an organization that needs to get some big bats to the big leagues pronto.

30. TWINS (Jim): Minnesota hasn't used a first-round pick on a college position player since Travis Lee in 1996, but Utah first baseman C.J. Cron might make a lot sense. Few players in this draft make as much consistent hard contact as he can. But I'll have the Twins take John Stilson—whom they failed to sign as a 19th-rounder our of Texarkana (Texas) JC two years ago—and let them figure out if he's going to be a starter or reliever. He has better pure stuff than most of the members of their big league rotation, and he also could develop into their closer of the future.

########

Leonys Martin update

2011-04-20T16:43:00.006-05:00

As I speculated in a previous post, Martin is indeed set to get a 5yr/15.5m$ deal with a 5m$ signing bonus, and not the 15m "bonus" that TR Sullivan claimed. Jorge Ebro notes that it should be 1-2 weeks for the paper work to be finalized.

By comparison, SS Jose Iglesias received a 4yr/8.25m deal with a 3m$ bonus from Boston. SS Adeiny Hechevarria signed a 4yr/10m deal with a 4m$ bonus from Toronto. LHP SP Noel Arguelles signed a 5yr/7m deal (with 2m in incentives) and a reported 3.4m bonus with KC. SP Yunesky Maya signed a 4yr/6m deal with the Nats. Aroldis Chapman signed a 6yr/30m deal with the Reds (with 10m in bonus money for incentives and arb eligibility) with a 15m bonus paid over 11 years. Rubi Silva (21yo CF) and Yaniel Cabeza (21yo C) both signed with the Cubs in January for bonuses of 1m and 500k respectively (probably not receiving multi-year deals). D. Viciedo signed with the ChiSox in 12/08 for a 4/10m deal and a 4m bonus. Viciedo marks the beginning of the greatest influx of Cuban talent in over a decade at least. According to at least one report there are a couple of other players of note who will be cleared soon so we'll see if TX might be in on them as well.

So outside of the rarefied air of the Chapman deal, Martin will have received the best contract of any of the Cuban defectors beginning with Viciedo's 2008 deal. Now, we won't know a great deal about Martin for a few more months, but, given his superior contract, I hold out hope that people will indeed be as excited watching him play as they have been about most of the others on that list. If not, then Texas paid a whole lot of money for the next Craig Gentry...

######

Leonys Martin update

2011-04-15T21:37:00.002-05:00

TR Sullivan has a Leonys Martin update, suggesting that he has indeed signed for a 15m$ bonus, and that all of the naysayers are full of shit:

Rangers have faith in Cuban star

NEW YORK -- The Rangers have yet to announce the signing of outfielder Leonys Martin, a 23-year-old Cuban defector who has agreed to a $15 million signing bonus. That announcement will come next week.

But there is already speculation about just how good Martin is, and some reports have suggested he has "flaws in his swing," an "undisclosed leg injury" or is not an elite defender. The Rangers are not commenting on Martin yet, but club officials suggest privately that they believe Martin has the whole package, including speed, a strong arm, plus defense and the ability to drive the ball at the plate.

The price tag is staggering, but the Rangers have been aggressive with international signings and they believe Martin could be a frontline center fielder. He will work out with the Rangers on the next homestand but is expected to start his U.S. career at Double-A Frisco.

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Martin Interview

2011-04-15T17:42:00.001-05:00

Here is an interview with Martin Perez at Rider's Insider Blog.

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EST Roster

2011-04-14T21:36:00.003-05:00

Cole just posted the official Extended ST roster over a LSD. No real surprises there. Looks like Santo Perez got his visa and Juan Grullon is healthy (for now). Couple of oversights: Sardinas, Reyes. There's a Paul Strong sighting. No Leo Gil. I'm thinking Gil (still) has a visa issue. No Nick Urbanus, who might not have arrived. Rodland, Puello, Jr Payano, J Rojas have likely been released. It's possible that some of the elisions are in fact do to players in injury limbo as there is no Extended DL so to speak, so they might not appear on the roster until fully healthy.

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Leonys Martin

2011-04-14T10:08:00.005-05:00

Still more conflicting reports about Martin, tending toward the more predominant pessimism about his ceiling, this time from Buster Olney. The majority of reports seem to add up to an average ML CF across the board, which may or may not be an upgrade on Borbon given that Borbon is a plus defender in CF already. The scuttlebutt: Plus to plus-plus speed, average defense, AA arm (for a CF), even splits, slightly better than average walk to SO ratio, hit tool uncertain but ceiling seems limited to fringe average for CF (contact hitter, small ball guy, good bunter, gap power unclear). Here is Olney. Make sure to check out the moronic comment from the last "talent evaluator":

• The Rangers are reportedly close to signing outfielder Leonys Martin, a Cuban defector. I emailed some talent evaluators not affiliated with the Rangers and asked what they know of Martin. Their responses:

Talent evaluator No. 1: "I think he has a chance to be a solid player, similar to Juan Pierre, with a better arm. Does that translate to a $15 million deal? I don't know, but Texas's track record on international players over the past few years has been pretty good."

Talent evaluator No. 2: "I like Leonys Martin and he was undoubtedly one of Cuba's top young players, but, as with a lot of good Cuban players, I'm not convinced his skill set will translate into him becoming a premium Major League player.

"The best way I can describe Martin is that his reputation seems to exceed the sum of his parts. Martin has plus speed and a good arm but no other premium skills or tools, so the rumored $15M seems aggressive.

"He was about a .310 or .315 career hitter in Cuba, but that was in a pitching-poor league in which the average hitter has hit .300 in recent years, so he was only a slightly above-average hitter down there. He has a little pop but he's a slasher type who rarely puts the ball in the air, so I'd be surprised if he hits more than 8 to 12 HR in the ML. On the plus side, Martin wasn't overly susceptible to left-handed pitching and he walked slightly more than he struck out, although neither his strikeout nor walk ratios were really good or really bad.

"Martin definitely has plus speed and a good arm, but those two tools didn't translate into Martin being an elite defensive CF in Cuba. As you know, people have a tendency to believe a plus arm and plus speed equals plus defense, but Martin is nowhere near being a Michael Bourn type in CF. All in all, I can see Martin as a capable, average major league centerfielder, but probably not an elite CF. While I don't believe either Jose Iglesias or Adeiny Hechavarria will hit in the ML, both should be premium defensive SS. But in Martin's case, he grades out more average across the board (except speed), so it's harder to see star potential."

Talent evaluator No. 3: "I have never seen the player, but he sounds like he has strong running ability, fielding ability and throwing ability with good hitting ability. Limited power potential."

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Moves and Notes

2011-04-13T11:52:00.006-05:00

* Josh Hamilton's games played, 2007-2011*: 90, 156, 89, 133, 105*
* Leonys Martin is on the verge of signing a monster deal today after passing his physical. The current scuttlebutt is that he will indeed receive a 15m bonus (or contract). I'm thinking maybe 5/15, but probably not a 15m signing bonus (I hope, maybe 7-8m...). Given that he has not played competitively for 7 months, I would think the "Martin to the Majors" talk is premature, and he could very well start in extended for a month or so to give him some time. I would imagine he would start in HighA. I'm really interesting to see what the pundits have to say about the kid after talking to their scouting sources in addition to what the TX FO will say about him. It is reasonable, if not totally exciting, to think that this kind of money means Texas thinks they have a guy at least as good as Borbon and likely better. We can hope for a true lead-off hitter in the kid who might compete for the CF job in 2012.

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Pitching Moves and Other Notes

2011-04-09T13:36:00.016-05:00

Ranger Moves
I like these 2 forward-thinking moves. Rangers sign Manny Corpas to a minor league deal and claimed Ramon Aguero off waivers from the Pirates. Corpas was with the Rockies last year and has experience as a closer an set up man but had TJ surgery in September and likely won't pitch again until winter ball. He reportedly has an excellent sinker in the low 90's area code and a decent slider. We'll find out about his value during winter ball and ST 2012. However, his #s don't seem to indicate that he's a closer or setup type guy anymore while his velo has declined each of the last 4 years and he'll be 29 for the 2012 season. But if you can sign a 7th_8th inning type for cheap, who not only has experience but also under team control for awhile, then it could be a nice bargain.

Aguero seems to have had a bit of an injury history in full season ball. He pitched half a season in 2008 as a starter, a full season in 2009 as a reliever and about half a season in 2010 in the pen. He reportedly has plus fastball velo but inconsistent secs. His FB command will be critical for his future success given his lack of a plus secondary pitch and I'm not sure about how that grades out, but the #s suggest it is only average. He is also a former VISA fraud kid, having lied about his age and ending up being about 5 years older! So, given his very late start in baseball (early 20s!), it wouldn't surprise me at all if he fails to put it all together and ends up being an Ovispo de los Santos or Hector Nelo type guy.

Anyways, Levine had this to say about each guy:
"It's (Corpas) a big arm and a guy who has had success in a Major League bullpen and success in the back end of the bullpen," Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine said. "It's a low-risk potential way to add to our stable of arms as we look to build on a championship bullpen in 2012."

"When our scouts have seen him (Aguero), he has been 92-96 [miles per hour] with a good slider," Levine said. "He has had some health issues, and that is why he was available. But he has a good arm, and our pro scouts recommended him."

"It's a good arm (Aguero) that we've liked and our pro scouts recommended," assistant general manager Thad Levine said. "We're going to take a chance on him."

Jason Parks had this to say about Aguero:

* Plus-plus FB; flashes plus slider; command issues. Late-inning reliever type with overpowering FB in bursts. Good pickup.
* Also flashes passable-to-better than passable CU both secondary offerings are hot and cold.
* Slider. It currently grades around 40/45 but could end up as a 50 pitch. It “flashes” plus at times, but the scouts I’ve spoken to don’t seem to think it’s consistent enough to hold a higher grade. CU had some 55 grades on it before the injury issues. FB with lots of 70s. Perfect low-risk arm to bring into the fold. If one of the secs takes a step forward, you could have a late-inning arm in short-order. It’s a smart move.

Webb Diary
I'm so sick of hearing about Brandon Webb's opinions about his bullpen and batting practice sessions. He sounds _exactly_ like he did last year during his rehab and throwing sessions. Please raise your hand if you were one of the fans or beat writers who thought the Webb signing was such a great move, penciled him into the rotation because he was "healthy", and touted the greatest Rangers pitching depth in 10 years. He is now throwing 4-seamers and no one has dared to put a gun on him in any of his outings this year.

Minor Notes
The minor league rotos look like this:
AAA: Kirkman, Hurley, Jackson, Tomko, Hankins
AA: Boscan, Perez, Brigham, MDLS, Pimentel
A+: Ramirez, Erlin/Kiker, Loux, Ross, Wieland
A: Mendez, Rojas, Thompson, Grimm, Melo

Express
* Bobby Jones
* Kirkman meltdown
* Game Notes: 4/7

Frisco
* RR Insider
* Xtra Bases Game Blog: 4/8
* Perez's 2-seamer
* Bianucci Interview: 4/8

Jose Julio Ruiz
Here is a profile that i dug up on him from 2009. It seems to show that despite his "raw power" he never really projected to hit a lot of HR in the bigs, 15-20 tops. He also had problems vs LHP as well. His speed was supposed to be AA allowing him to play in the OF some. However, he is now ~230 so I'm not sure he has it in him anymore to play the OF full time or steal a few bases. We'll see how he does on those fronts. We already know that he is a good contact hitter and has good patience (at least vs RHP) but his strikeout #s last year including his winter ball stint were higher than you would have expected. Anyways, here is the profile in full:

José Julio Ruiz is my third best prospect among the recent exiled Cuban players. Certainly, Leslie Anderson has been a better hitter in Cuba than José Julio, but José is younger and Anderson may be declared a free agent after the 2010 season already started.

José Julio is 25 years old. José has been listed as 6'2 and 194 pounds.

Santiago de Cuba’s José Julio Ruiz Barzán bats during the first game of the Cuban baseball finals against Pinar del Rio in Santiago de Cuba April 16, 2008 on this (Photo: Reuters).

During this last season (48), Ruíz was hitting .305/.408/.467 after 52 games. Then, he vanished from Cuba until he appeared in Miami. Cuban season consists of 90 games only. José Julio needs to improve his average against lefties which was 214 during this last season. He did very well against righties (338). He connected 48 times to LF, 47 times to CF and 83 times to RF.

In the 47 Cuban season, José Julio Ruíz finished 23rd in average with 341. He hit 21 doubles and 11 HR driving 69 runs. He also walked 44 times and struck out 49. He finished first in AB with 429, 3rd in Runs with 83, first in hits with 126, 8th in total bases with 182. Despite being a first baseman, José Julio finished first in stolen bases with 32 and second in caught stealing with 9. José Julio also finished 10th in RBI with 69.

Crawdads
* 'Dads Preview
* Mendez Debut

Pelicans
* Bullpen Preview
* Infield Preview
* Outfield Preview
* Neil Ramirez Debut
* Players like the new digs
* McGuiness and Olt
* Starting Staff

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DSL Academy

2011-04-09T13:26:00.003-05:00

Evan Grant reports a bit of a shocker. The DSL Academy has closed. After contracting from 2 teams to one last year now it doesn't even has space even after spending a couple of million building the site that they opened in 2006. As for Levine's blurb about the possibility of moving the DSL kids to AZ as a second rookie club, well, that would come as a huge shock to those kids I would imagine, both in cultural terms and skill-level. Now while the contraction of the club increased the talent level in turn, only a few of those kids - like less than 5 - are ever ready to make their rookie debut stateside. I can't imagine that would be a good move and think it unlikely. Anyways, here is Grant's summary:

BALTIMORE - While the Rangers continue to make strides in Latin American scouting, they are currently without a home in the Dominican Republic. The team confirmed that it has ended its association with former major league reliever Solomon Torres, the owner of the property after a five-year run. Milwaukee will move into the facility near San Pedro de Macoris this summer.

Assistant general manager Thad Levine, who is traveling with the Rangers, said the club's immediate goal is to find a spot at which to house it's young Latin American talent for the Dominican Summer League, which begins in June. Levine said it is possible the Rangers could move the DSL team to Arizona this summer and field a second team in the Arizona Rookie League.

The Rangers moved into the then brand-new facility in 2006, putting a significant amount of their own money into the building and into upgrades. It was then considered a state-of-the-art complex, but has aged quickly. The team is "weighing all its options'' for a location in the Dominican, but Levine said the breakup did not blindside the club. It also won't impact the Rangers' Dominican operations, he said.

"There will be no impact at all," said Levine. "We feel like our Latin American and international scouting efforts are one of the strengths of the organization. We have every intention of keeping it as a permanent asset. We'll do everything we can to make sure we don't take a step backwards."

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Pitching Charts y Mas

2011-04-09T10:13:00.014-05:00

A few stalwarts over at Lone Star Ball normally chart pitches for some of the minor league games so head on over to the "Minor League" thread there to follow your favorite pitching prospects throughout the season. I did this on occasion last season here at M&M (and over at LSB as well) but won't have time to do so until later in the season this year.

LoneStar Dugout's Jason Cole will also chart pitches at games he attends throughout the season at every level. His in depth daily coverage of the Texas minor league system is well worth the outlay. You can subscribe yearly (~80$) or monthly (~$8). Try it out monthly to see how you like it. Don't forget that his draft coverage is terrific, so if you only subscribe for one month, try it out in June. He not only profiles the Rangers' picks but tries to interview all of their top draft picks as well. Don't forget that you can watch every AAA game (home and away, and later archived) on MiLBTV for 30$ a year. The feeds aren't HD and the principle camera angle (or camera work) isn't always great but still...

For more minor league coverage, check out Jason Parks' Texas Farm Review (~20$/yr). He will be scripting detailed profiles for many of the top prospects in the system over the next couple of months. He was able to evaluate many of them during Spring Training over the last 2 years. His 2010 prospect profiles written for Baseball Time in Arlington are a must read and are free (see "Parksie's Top 25" in the sidebar). Keep on eye on BBTIA as well, as they often have a semi-permanent figure writing on the Texas system or occasional entries at the very least, and it is free to boot. The minor league forum over at The Newberg Report is moribund to say the least (except for the inveterate link hunter, mingjungtc), so stick to Lone Star Ball for that. However, if you like to have your minor league box scores summarized for you - I don't - definitely check out The Newberg's site for Scott Lucas' daily summaries, free as well (Cole also does this). Scott will also post a few nice articles at his web site throughout the season that are well worth the read.

Minorleaguesplits.com (RIP, but reborn, kinda) used to have an awesome daily team-specific system summary. The Rangers' website has something like that. First Inning has something. Shroomer's Rangers Farm Probables, back after last year's second-half hiatus, is probably the best resource that collects all of the minor league system links into a user-friendly format. It not only has links to the daily box scores and recaps but also lists the scheduled starters and has links to the team sites and audio feeds. Bookmark it.

So I'm pimping the sites that I like because I'm not going to have much time to cover the system until late May or June (if at all). I'll mostly just be updating the system-wide roster moves each day and posting links related to system-wide news as I find them. I have links in the sidebar to most of the affiliate sites and their local papers, so you can also check those out yourself if you like. I will still be keeping a close eye on the j2 and international FA market though, so that will not change.

If you happen to come across any other media effectively covering any of the affiliates, please leave a note in the comment section so that I can link to it in the sidebar. Si usted es un lector ubicado en América Latina, y usted sabe de cualquier otra fuente que regularmente cubren los Rangers de Texas y/o su sistema de ligas menores o se encuentra con un artículo profundo sobre el tema por favor enviar el enlace en la sección de comentarios. Además, si usted tiene alguna pregunta o comentario, mandamelo.

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Leonys Martin

2011-04-08T11:10:00.004-05:00

Galloway has an uncharacteristically useful piece up today. In it, Daniels seems to hint that the Martin signing is a done deal and that some staff believe he could contribute this year:

Unrelated to the 6-0 homestand, but in otherwise interesting news, the Rangers will sign a 23-year-old Cuban defector, center fielder Leonys Martin. For one thing, the top Cubans who leave the island are usually high-dollar items. In this case, the estimate is the Rangers will pay in the financial vicinity of $15 million for Martin. Another thing is the Rangers have not been able to afford these kinds of players in the past. Ryan: "Our ownership group is committed. Because of them, this is the best environment for success the Rangers have ever had. As far as the player goes, I haven't seen him, but our reports are outstanding. He could be in the majors this year." Daniels: "The ownership deserves plenty of credit here. Our group made a recommendation and the owners stepped up."

Amother report said that the signing (should they win the bidding) would not be announced until next week. Correction: _Ryan_ said that Martin could see ML action this year and his public comments on players aren't entirely reliable. I hope he's right. If Martin is legit, someone you can see battling Borbon for a CF spot _and_ you can get someone to bite on Beltre and Davis at the trade deadline, that would go a long way toward preserving the depth in the system _and_ also make Borbon a key trade chip in the off-season as Texas tries to upgrade their pitching staff and/or replace CJ. Ok, I'm getting ahead of myself a little. Hopefully, Davis bashes in AAA and a team bites on him (I think he's still a platoon bat and not the next Nellie) and Beltre bashes in AA and a team bites on him (I'm not a believer).

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More Cubans please

2011-04-06T18:11:00.013-05:00

Although the most interesting free agent crop of Cubans in the last decade came and went in the second half of 2009 and early 2010 with nary a peep from the bankrupt Rangers, it did end up snagging discarded 1b Jose Julio Ruiz in the end. 2011 marks a different time and Texas is now on the verge of signing CF Leonys Martin to a ML deal per team sources. Martin was officially granted FA status on March 18 after his defection in August 2010 (so he has been out of baseball for about 7 months). Profiles about him are not very in depth and, characteristically for international FA, are not entirely consistent, so I would wait to see what Texas (and the post-signing pundits) has to say about him (particularly what he signs for and where he will be assigned, highA like Hechaverria or AA like Iglesias and Ruiz, AAA?) if the club snags him. It isn't clear if he is a fringy overall CF like Borbon (fringy #9 hitter<.650 ops>, poor splits, impatient, plus D) or something more or less.

Anyways, if he projects to be at least like Borbon, and not more than 1-2 years away, I would guess he would get a contract in the 4yr, 6-8m range. One rumor has him getting 15m and if that is the case then that would mean that Texas believes he can be an above-average starting CF and leadoff hitter for a contender. I came across a source that said he showed plus plus speed in his tryouts (and doesn't drink or smoke to boot). Whatever the case, he will assuredly be better than Reinier Bermudez.

Don't forget, this should be the most exciting year for Texas on the international scene and this signing would be a great way to kick it off. With the new ownership, Texas should compete to sign at least one or two of the elite j2 hitters for the first time, in the 2m+ area code. Hopefully there is a power hitting RF or 3b out their that merits the outlay. If there is an elite pitcher out there, I would expect Texas to be in on him too. Don Welke said in an interview (filmed by Ted Price) at some preseason event that Texas was all in on three of the top j2 prospects this year so something will happen. Maybe we even wade into the Yu Darvish scene if he's posted in the off season, though the abuse young pitchers take over there should give one pause on the 50million+ posting fee (not including his salary of course).

The Jays' blog Yardbarker has a long article musing on the kid from their POV (h/t ming). Here is what BA's John Manuel had to say in September:

Sizing Up Cuban Defector Leonys Martin

Posted Sep. 16, 2010 10:24 am by John Manuel
Filed under: International

Leonys Martin has become the latest high-profile player from Cuba to leave his family and country behind to chase a major league career. If recent history is any guide, Martin figures to garner a seven-figure signing bonus once he establishes residency and becomes a free agent.

Martin, whose age is listed as 22, left Cuba after playing for the country's national team in Taiwan during the FISU World University Championships. He batted leadoff frequently for Cuba in that tournament, which is limited to players age 27 and under. He was on the 18U junior-national team in 2006 as well, so his age appears to be quite believable. As a 21-year-old, Martin was a reserve on the 2009 World Baseball Classic team.He's a lefthanded hitter whose best tools are his speed and defense. He's a plus runner at least, being timed in 4.1 seconds to first base from the left side in Taiwan, and showed strong small-ball skills, with the ability to drag bunt for hits and handle the bat on the hit-and-run. He also played center field and showed at least average range. Martin also hit .326 with 10 home runs in the last Serie Nacional, Cuba's top-level league, while playing for Villa Clara, and has drawn plenty of walks in Cuba, posting a .311/.492/.491 line in 2008-2009, when he drew 78 bases on balls and ranked second in the league with 17 steals (in a 90-game season).

Martin was reported to be in Mexico, trying to establish residency to become a free agent. That process can take months, but it's possible Martin could give an organization a 23-year-old speedy center fielder for the 2011 season.

Peter Bjarkman had this to say about Martin preceding the league playoffs in March 2010:

Championships are also normally won when an individual player or two rise above the field with a memorable history-making performance. My guess is that Leonys Martin and Fred Asiel Alvarez are the key performers in this biggest showdown series of the year. Martin has been as hot as ever the past several weeks and he possesses multiple ways to beat opponents—slugging with power, reaching base with impressive regularity, dangerous base-path speed, and stellar outfield defense. And Martin is also developing an uncanny knack for stroking clutch hits in crucial big-game situations—just like his earlier prototype Luis Ulacia.

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Minor Notes

2011-04-04T14:26:00.016-05:00

Hickory Roster announced
Hickory has released its roster (h/t Cole).

Most pleasant surprises: David Herrera and T-Mart make the cut while Telis, Castillo and Deglan make up the catching trio (with Castillo being a super utility guy you would think).
Somewhat surprised: Matt Thompson repeats; Tony Doyle demoted; Johnny Gomez!
No-shows: Easy Eddie, Clark Murphy, Brett Nichols, Guillermo Pimentel, Jimmy Reyes, Nick McBride, Franky Mendoza, ODLS. Some of these are injured or rehabbing to be sure, while others are working on something, still others are waiting on something, and the rest are, well, holding their breath.

Newest Texas Trend: short, skinny people. Texas surely has a collection of the shortest and skinniest A-ball position players in the minors. Previous trends: Venezuela, Curveballs, Cutters, Short Lefties, Suspensions, Hitters-turned-pitchers, Bullpen Reaches.

Pelican Briefs
Looking Ahead to 2011
For those that are counting, that is now 2 more articles on the Pelicans before opening day than the Blaze had all last year...

PB Deux
James Smyth continues with his alliterative series the "Pelican Preview", taking a look at the rotation after opening with an interview with skipper Wood. He breaks down the rest of the team thru Friday. So, it looks like he might be the "beat writer" for the team in the same way that Bob Hersom was for OKC. Seems pretty rare, a beat writer for a HighA team, but then we deserved it -right? - after the years-long multi-media black hole that was the Blaze. Anyways, he appears to be culling stuff from BA and draft profiles, etc, so nothing earth-shattering here - no player interviews yet - but it's a good start and did start off the series by interviewing the coach.

Frisco
That play-by-play guy for Frisco still doesn't call pitches. This will be his second year there so, on the developmental scale, I would have to say that he is not very "toolsy". And I say this most begrudgingly as you know how I hate giving up on those high ceiling types. Anyways, throw us a bone already, just call them this way (or any way): "fastball, breaking ball, change of pace" or even just "fastball, offspeed". You know there is a problem in the booth when people are tuning into the away feed...

Finally, i think that the word "begrudge" looks weird, sounds weird and connotes weirdly.

J2 Note
Back in 2009 Texas signed one j2-eligible LHP for a reported 75k from the Leones de Yucatan, a Mexican minor league club. He was injured in some way by the time the 2010 season started but I've heard nary a word about him in 15 months. I think i might have come across his name on the 2010-11 roster of the Yaquis de Obregon, Luis Daniel de la Torre Carrillo, a LHP listed at 6.1/160. However his date of birth is listed at 12/1/93, which would've have meant that he was inelgible to sign in July 2009 at the age of 15. His last name is also slightly different, Carrillo, rather than Carillo. Anyways, I'm not sure this is the guy or why he is or was there last year but seems like it could be the guy. Maybe his contract was voided?

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Interview with HighA coach

2011-04-04T00:08:00.004-05:00

Alan Blondin at the Sun News has a short but interesting Q&A with the Pelicans first- year coach Jason Wood.

I should add that Brad Holman is the pitching coach there this year after 2 years in Hickory. He is extremely well-respected by the organization and the things he touches tend to turn to gold. Many of the pitchers from HighA were with him in LowA and I would imagine that the added continuity might allow them to make quick strides in their development.

As I noted in the off season, I expect the depth in the upper minors, well, in AA at least, to improve dramatically by mid-season if a lot of the HighA players progress as expected. That added depth is going to come in handy at the trade deadline given that Texas will surely be shopping for a top roto arm for a playoff run, hopeully a guy with at least one more year of control with the likely departure of CJ Wilson in the off season.

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Pelican News

2011-04-02T16:47:00.003-05:00

So how does it feel to finally have a HighA team that gets an official play by play, some ink in the local press and for whom prospects will no longer disappear into an information black hole? Finally. Here is a piece from the Sun News about the Pelican roster from earlier in the week when the Rangers were in town:

Daniels, Service, Manuel
It is only a piece that qualifies as earth shattering if one like it had never before been scripted about the Blaze...

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Frisco, Pelicans rosters

2011-03-31T15:25:00.011-05:00

The rosters have been finalized for both AA and HighA, while the starting rotations for the other 2 clubs have been noted by Evan Grant. I have updated the system roster accordingly.

Low A consequences: Villanueva wins a spot in Low A; Braden Tullis and Nick McBride not in roto to begin season

HighA Notables: Santiago Chirino Hill, Jared Hoying, Ryan Strausborger and Mike Olt skip lowA; Matt Thompson, ODLS, and Andy Doyle MIA; Kiker still getting chances; Gomez and Bell start in pen.

AA Notables: Lemon MIA; Osuna repeats; Mendonca promoted; Robinzon Diaz retained; JJ Ruiz does not start in AAA; Morrison, Sarmiento, and Castillo start on DL; Bleier is rehabbing but is not currently on the DL

AAA consequences: nice veteran lineup; horrible veteran bullpen; 3 legit prospects in the roto

UPDATE:
Kevin Goldstein says that Marcus Lemon has been traded for a PTBNL.
Scott Lucas has Kevin Castner as "retired" on his roster - haven't heard that from anyone else. I think Cole noted that he was pitching on the back fields only a few weeks ago. Lucas also notes that TK Ahn has been released (finally).
I noted in the Fall that both D-Gut and Miggy V were candidates to be released in the off-season. D-Gut has been released per Jason Cole. Miggy V was not invited to spring training to my knowledge and remains on the suspended/restricted list - there is still time. Hopefully Texas just makes it a first principle to avoid wasting time with these types in the future, or at least, choose to stick to their draft rhetoric: "we are only interested in high makeup guys..." Wait, they did sign the PEDS-suspended Omar Quintanilla so first principles will only take you so far it seems...

UPDATE
The SWST has noted a few more minor leaguers who have been released:
Koncel, Meiners, Nelo, Taubenheim
The last one of note was another headcase who was suspended for PEDS last year and another who I predicted was a candidate for release: Christian Santana.

UPDATE
Still waiting on Hickory to release their roster. The rosters for the other three clubs have been set. Jason Cole confirms that OF Salvador Sanchez is converting to the mound, a possiblity that I noted at the time of his signing due to his age (25.5), size (6.6/195) and the Rangers general proclivity to do this sort of thing.

UPDATE
Scott Lucas _might_ think that T-Mart and David Herrera will debut with the Crawdads. That would be cool. I'm willing to finally put my man crush on Edwin "Easy Eddie" Garcia on the back burner in service to the cause of Herrera, Chirino, T-Mart and Villanueva (but not Leury). I also hope that Telis gets a chance to start in Hickory (rather than in extended) as he simply has to have as many innings behind the plate as possible after missing a season of development there due to his TJ surgery.

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j2 signs

2011-03-23T00:14:00.003-05:00

I'm a little out of pocket these days so I only have time to update the roster. The Rangers' transaction page lists a few more j2 signs. I think that some of them might have been posted (most are from November) only after their contracts/documents cleared. Nevertheless they are there now, so check out the DSL section of the projected system rosters in the side bar for those 9 new names: a couple of OF, a couple more MIF, a couple of corner infielders, and three pitchers.

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BA Profie: Cephus Howard

2011-03-07T15:04:00.002-06:00

Here is profile on Cephus Howard that BA posted after his 2009 year (sub.) in Indy Ball:

3. Cephus Howard, rhp, Schamburg (Northern)
Age: 24. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 240.

He may be 25 (he's had a birthday since the season ended), but Howard is still an extremely raw pitcher with a good reason to be unrefined. Howard was a catcher growing up, and he didn't begin pitching until after a knee injury and ineligibility as a senior ended his career at USC Aiken (because of a knee injury, he never played in a college game). But even though he was new to pitching, the Angels saw enough to draft him in the 37th round in 2007. The Angels gave him two seasons before releasing him after a very brief stint in high Class A Rancho Cucamonga this season.

Pitching with the Flyers, Howard showed that he's a work in progress with an unrefined delivery but he already has shown control and should continue to improve as he gets more accustomed to pitching. His fastball sits between 88-91, touching 93 mph and he also throws a cutter, a tight slider and an inconsistent 12-to-6 curveball. Howard's stuff was good enough to blow away a lot of Northern League hitters especially as the season went along. He allowed only one hit in his final 7 2/3 innings of work while striking out six. For the season he struck out more than a batter an inning (47 Ks in 42 IP) and had an excellent 1.71 ERA.

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Cephus Howard

2011-03-02T22:01:00.002-06:00

Rangers inked 26yo Cephus Howard yesterday, an enormous RH reliever (6.5-6.6/245) who pitched in Indy ball the last 2 years. He was drafted late by the Angels in 2007. As he didn't even pitch in college - his first year on the mound was in rookie league - I guess he qualifies as a classic Texas bullpen sign: late to the game with a good fastball. He likely will compete for a spot in HighA or AA, possibly even starting out in extended or possibly not making a club at all. Whatever the case, this kid has an interesting story:

Howard says, "In the Spring (after academic suspension) I got a job and I was like, I don't know about this. So I moved to Atlanta and I got a trainer and a pitching coach and it went from there."

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Camp Notes

2011-02-26T19:08:00.008-06:00

Jeff Wilson has the Cactus League rotos:

C.J. Wilson-Dave Bush, Colby Lewis-Michael Kirkman, Matt Harrison-open, Tommy Hunter-Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland-Neftali Feliz, Eric Hurley-Tanner Scheppers

Ignore all of the "Webb says he feels great" and "Webb says that long toss has changed my life" until after he pitches in game action for about 4 weeks. Maddux did go some way in answering the "why does it make sense to take Webb off the mound?" Well, he wasn't taken off the mound to build arm strength it seems, as he has been building arm strength for the last 12 months. Instead, it seems it was a matter of the arm slot, which, along with the "mental" side of things, was the principle issue that thwarted his comeback last year (discomfort, lack of velo, lack of command, movement). Maddux had this to say after watching him throw long toss for a week: "We did what we wanted to do," Maddux said. "We got an idea of his arm slot and his work zone. He is now where he needs to be to maximize his throwing program."

According to TRS, both Hurley and MDLS have been cleared to throw. Web could pitch off the mound again as soon as Sunday or Monday (but not to hitters yet, I gather). Beltre is out 10-14 days.

As I mentioned in a previous post with respect to Feliz, it is often the case that most of the important decisions about roster composition and roles have already been made by the time ST begins. So we learn today that the lineup order has been set (Kinsler and andrus, 1-2; Beltre, Cruz, Young, Moe, 4-7), Blanco is the 25th man and that they are determined to let Feliz win a roto spot (over Ogando). In the arena of "known knowns", we already knew or suspected most of this, including the continued and puzzling reluctance of Warsh to let Cruz bat cleanup. I like having Kinsler at the top and Andrus at the second spot. I hope Andrus can loosen up a little in that spot and we see a little more aggressiveness from him. Thad Bosley might be just the guy to help him with that.

TR Sullivan continues his Scheppers pessimism, has dropped his Ogando optimism, and continues to think Kirkman is ahead of Holland.

Strop confesses to what those who watched him in AAA already knew: his struggles in his brief Texas debut had to do with a lack of confidence. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see how he does over the course of the spring. If Feliz makes the roto, I think Strop is a lock for the pen, especially if Texas still has confidence that Scheppers will emerge as a legit option as a starter by the trade deadline.

Jason Parks and Jason Cole arrive at camp on Sunday to begin their month-long coverage.

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Camp Note(s)

2011-02-25T16:47:00.004-06:00

Napoli had this comment about Feliz'e breaking ball in today's intrasquad game, to continue a theme about Feliz's tendency to telegraph his secondary pitches:

Napoli remembers seeing some of Feliz's breaking stuff last year, but added that the pitcher has better arm action now. Napoli said that Feliz doesn't slow his arm up, something he did some in 2010 that would give away that a breaking ball or off-speed pitch was coming.

Grant chimes in with a comment from Kevin Cash:
Added Cash: "Yeah, he looked pretty sloppy, didn't he? You won't see too many breaking balls better than the one he threw [Napoli]. It started out at about his butt cheek and ended up down and away. And it was just effortless."

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Camp Notes

2011-02-24T10:15:00.015-06:00

* Some progress on the injury front per Andro:
Hurley should throw a bullpen this weekend; Castillo is already throwing from flat ground after ditching his walking boot a few days ago; Miggie DLS should throw off the mound as soon as Friday after being shelved for that last 5 weeks. UPDATE per Durrett: RHP Fabio Castillo (broken bone in left foot) will continue to throw off flat ground, but is still wearing the boot at times during the day.

* Evan Grant still thinks he's on to something about Feliz: throwing a fastball too much is not good for a starter; he can't throw his changeup for strikes, therefore, if he misses low, that would be good; as opposed to not having good secs, now it is a matter of having confidence to throw them. That last bit is a big change for Grant, now at least admitting that he has secs, and can occasionally throw them for strikes (or at least, throw them low...?) so he's making progress. It should also suggest to him, among other things that a season is not a ceiling or a measure of talent but a snapshot of what kind of season it was. The snap shot of 2009 was a little different. At least he's letting go of this image apparently seared in his mind that "Feliz seemed to have a shitty spring training in 2010 when being stretched out so therefore he is probably not a starter."

The thing Grant seems to miss (other than small things like the performance metrics and scouting information for him from the previous 2 years) when eyeballing Feliz's season are the things that matter most as a starter: the importance of pitch efficiency, pitch sequencing, changing speeds, and moving the ball around the zone, and not throwing as hard. Those are the things he has to master in order to start. The other issue is, of course, just how much Feliz can prove any of that during spring trainging. Spring training is not really an audition for most players. The staff already knows what they are capable of and what they need to work on so the drama of spring is really a (beat writer) melodrama as the race to win a spot on any 25 man roster is usually already a fait accompli. That is to say, most roster spots and roles are not won in spring training at all. If Texas needs another month to determine whether or not Feliz can start, then it is already much too late.

Anyways, by the end of the spring, Grant will probably admit that Feliz has a nice future on the mound as a starter. He should also take note that Trip Somer's pitch f/x can aggregate pitch type info by date range to save him some time over at Brooks. Just as an aside, remember his man-love for Ogando, now dissipated it seems? Grant seemed to think Ogando was a better starter prospect because he threw his breaking ball more. Fangraphs wieghted runs above average for his slider was .4 to Feliz's 4.1 for his slurve. Throwing it more, doesn't make it better. The figure for each one's changeup was about 0, though I argue that Feliz's change does flash plus and is his second best pitch when on. Prior to mid-season 2009 in the minors, the slurve was his second best pitch. He will continue to throw his slurve more than the change and it might end up being his second best offering in the long-term, we'll have to see. The point is that both pitches flash plus and he can command them, with the changeup being pretty effective at getting groundballs in 2010, as it should be (unless it is your wipeout pitch).

Another issue that Grant overlooks, is that some of Feliz' struggles last year, particularly in the playoffs, had to do with losing command of his fastball in the zone at times, which he doesn't mention at all. Like Feliz, Ogando also threw his split-change less than 5% of the time, which is less than 1 changeup per outing, so it still isn't clear to me why Grant believe's Ogando is a better candidate to start (for that reason, among many others).

I'm not sure that now is the right time for Feliz to move to the rotation, but I'm pretty convinced that he can do it eventually. What kind of top roto arm can he become this year, in the long term - an Ace, #1, 1_2, 2, 2_3 - I'm not sure. Even for top roto-caliber arms, their first year isn't their best, and they rarely pitch like they will in year 2 and beyond. So, it may be that Feliz disappoints in his first year as a starter, should that come to pass. As a precaution, I'd prefer to trade for a mid-roto arm to stabilize the rotation if he were in it so that the team can have patience with him if he struggles. The team tried to do that in the off-season but came up empty. So if your not sure what the right time is, or if the script that you want is not likely to be the script that you get, the time is now I guess.

* A couple of articles today on Thad Bosely. He's kind of unknown, being out of a coaching gig for 7 years. It is clear to me that there was a sea-change from Jaramillo to Hurdle in the culture of hitting on the team. For the most part, it worked, whatever working solution that the staff and the players ended up with. They seem to have bought into "it". However, unlike Hurdle, who at least had job continuity and an extensive pedigree to have faith in, the only thing we really know about Bosely is that Washington and the front office love the guy (he was runners up to Hurdle last year). While it is easy to overstate the influence of any one coach - it is the culture of the club that seems to matter most - there were a couple of interesting quotes from him today that seem a little incongruous with the the new culture of hitting in Arlington:

I'm not a believer in working a pitcher to take a walk," Bosley said. "I believe you've got to know the pitcher, and get a pitch you can drive. If you get an 0-0 pitch you can drive, you've got to jump on it."

"There were times when he (Hamilton) was just pushing the ball to left field, when he could have been driving it out of the park.

Now while, this might be true of Elvis Andrus, though, his power outage was mainly due to the changes in his approach that he felt he needed to make as a leadoff hitter (hopefully he becomes a little more balanced now that he knows that role, that spot, and himself a even better), I'm not sure it is characteristic of guys like Cruz, Young, or Hamilton. Maybe Kinsler falls into that category but then I would rather have the 2010 Kinsler (healthy) than the 2009 Kinsler (hacking). Whatever the case, I hope the value of working a walk doesn't change, nor the emphasis on making the pitcher throw more pitches when he is not on to elevate his pitch count, an element of previous teams that was completely absent and maddeningly frustrating (save 2008 when Bradley was here, and seemed to rub off on some people).

Wilson leads off his article with an inadvertantly funny Rick James moment: "I'm Thad Bosley (bitch)." And while the campy little meme that he hopes to implant in each hitter's head when at the plate seems a little much - "I am a line drive hitter", I did like one quote which offers up a little clarification of what TR Sullivan's piece was getting at:

At the major-league level, pitchers make mistakes in the strike zone," said Bosley, who spent the final two years of his 14-year career with the Rangers. "When they make that mistake, that's when you've got to be able to put that ball in play. We want to be a little more efficient in the strike zone."
The tenor of both articles seems to be pretty much the same and mirrors the same things that Hurdle said when he came to town: he's not interested in implementing a system rather he's only interested in getting the best out of each player's swing. The proof is in the puddin' as they say. While this approach might help a few players and others, not at all, I'd expect more of the same in 2011 which is not really a surprise, but good to hear.

* I really liked this bullpen when Francisco was still here and Feliz seemed unlikey to shift to the roto. I really liked this bullpen when Francisco was still here and when it seemed that Feliz might actually make the shift to the roto. Now that Francisco is gone and Feliz is closer to jumping to the roto, this bullpen is a little unsettling. It was a brilliant move to include Lowe in the the Lee deal as it offered the team a great deal more flexibility. However Lowe has only had one good year and has much to prove. I did not see the "closer" in Ogando last year. He had trouble with people on base and he could be a little tentative at times, so much so that Texas avoided using him in high-leverage situations late in the year. He has something to prove as well. Rhodes is not a guy who should pitch every other day though he can still close a game if he needs too, but you'd like to see him mostly in a setup role. Ideally he (and Oliver and O'Day for that matter) should end up with right around 50-55 innings to maintain his effectiveness. Oliver and O'Day don't have closer stuff. So, the bullpen is definitely a bit of a "known unknown" but there is no denying that Ogando has a great fastball and the Lowe has good stuff too with a little more high leverage experience. I like the idea of having Strop around with his potentially elite stuff, and Tanner Scheppers, should the bullpen have a crisis before July. So, right now, the big stories of camp are: Feliz, Ogando, and Lowe. I guess the next most compelling story would be: Holland. The Webb story might be interesting or surprising for some (after all he is completely "healthy" right?) but not something that is really unexpected.

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Camp Notes: Depth guys

2011-02-23T19:07:00.006-06:00

There are a few pitchers to keep an eye on in camp who might be able to offer critical depth beyond the starters that we already know about: Kirkman, Scheppers, Harrison, Bush, Feldman (mid-season). There were some really good reports about Brett Tomko when he moved into Oakland's roto at the end of 2009, and his velo was still sitting low 90s at age 36, but he spent 2010 rehabbing and didn't make it out of AAA. He's a guy who might surprise some people but at 38, I'd rather take a look-see at our younger arms even if it isn't pretty.

For the most part that means bullpen depth, and most of the starter depth can also fulfill bullpen roles. Guys who already have 2 decent pitches and command can contribute in those roles right away: Hurley, Kirkman, Scehppers, Harrison. As for the rest, well your really only talking about Pedro Strop. If Feliz makes the roto, then Strop should be the guy making the squad while the starting depth, well, starts (in AAA).

I think that outside of Strop and the starters, the pen depth in AAA is not all that impressive. Eppley is a bit of an unknown and right now profiles as a rightie specialist until develops an more effective offering vs LHB. I've never been a big Zach Phillips fan but if he puts it all together he can be fringy middle reliever. There is no more reason to be excited about him than say, Doug Mathis. I think he is working on another pitch to throw vs LHB as well. Beau Jones, well, when you catch him on a good day, he looks pretty good but he has some makeup issues along the line of what ails Matt Harrison. So, he's a bit of a long shot. It's probably unlikely that any of the AA arms would make the jump to the bigs before September, but Fabio Castillo would be the guy likely to break through. Hamburger really made strides last year and a guy like Miggie de los Santos or Jake Brigham could be fast-tracked to AAA as relievers. Aaron Fitt says that Texas will challenge Brigham with an assignment to AA (which i think is unlikely but that is what he said). There are other breakout types, but who are unlikely to break into bigs next year.

There are no stars there really, but Strop and Scheppers could look really nice in that pen while Kirkman might take a step forward and become a mid-roto caliber starter. If Hurley makes a contribution to Texas as a starter it will likely be next year when he is completely stretched out and prepared for 30 starts. Harrison's stuff can be great but his pitchability and makeup are suspect, and he's injury prone; this has to be the year for him. I won't easily give up on a lefty who touches 98 but I will if he doesn't finally put it together this year.

Y. Tateyama is really a bit of an unknown and at 35 is probably not much more than a specialist of some sort, providing nothing more than injury depth at best. Other than that, Zach Jackson, Seth McClung and Y. Brazoban all bring ML experience but not much upside. Jackson was terrible in 2010 in the minors and also bad in winter ball. Brazoban's ML experience was in 2004-2005 and he pitched in the Mexican league in 2010, so... Seth McClung is not a starter contrary to some reports, as the last time he manned that role full time was in the minors during 2002, and has not even been a spot starter since 2008. Yeah, he's a middle reliever type now who might get a spot start or two but who will likely have his innings limited in that role, having not pitched in a year, so, it doesn't seem the role would be a good fit for him. Ty Taubenheim is a 4A starter on the squad to eat up innings when needed.

So who are a few of the position player prospects who might end up making important contributions in 2011. Well, Chris Davis, Chad Tracy and Jose Ruiz might get an opportunity to get some at bats. In the OF, Endy Chavez and Craig Gentry will likely get some time as 5th outfielders when needed. Outside of those guys, the only other guys likely to help the club are Taylor Teagarden and mabye Robinzon Diaz, as injury replacements. Not too much to see here in terms of upside. No Justin Smoak or anything but I like this group of position players as they all seem to have one clear area of strength that they can offer in limited roles should they succeed. Chavez, Gentry, Teagarden offer up defensive attributes. Diaz is a guy with zero patience, but makes a little contact and has a strong arm, but whose catchability is suspect - a nice 4th catcher if you need one. Davis is likely only a platoon bat as is Chad Tracy, should his other hit tools be good enough. Jose Ruiz is a bit of an unknown who disappointed last year. Right now he seems to profile a guy who can make contact but that is all we can say really. I like Endy Chavez as the guy who makes the biggest contribution here as he has had even splits for his career except for the 15 months before his injury. So if he can hit lefties better, and is healthy, I like him over Gentry but both are nice as 5th OF and Gentry is 6 years younger and has that canon arm we all like, but he ain't gonna hit.

Again no stars here, but depth guys who could play important roles throughout the year, and guys who you like to root for to boot.

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ST Notes

2011-02-23T15:00:00.006-06:00

* Injury updates per TRS:

Hurley has a mild strain of his right hamstring and is being limited to long-toss at the point. Tobin, the Rule 5 Draft pick who had Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in 2009, has some general fatigue in his arm unrelated to previous injuries and is being temporarily held back. Fabio Castillo (stress fracture left foot) is throwing on flat ground and Miguel De Los Santos (biceps tendinitis) is beginning a long-toss program.

Rule 5 pick Mason Tobin has little chance to make the team. He is a DL baby, has missed the last 2 years, has accumulated less than 100 innings in 4 years (all in the first 2) and has some character issues, ending the season on the suspended list (his second suspension, both for conflicts with the coaching staff of some sort). If he pitches poorly in camp or hardly pitches, Texas might be able to retain his rights via a trade and designate him as he'll likely clear waivers. Last year, Texas made an ill-advised trade to keep Ben Snyder (nothing but a loogy) that cost them Edwin Escobar, a back roto prospect who pitched in the LVBP last year as a teen. If Tobin pitches well, the Angels just might keep him if they have a 40 spot to offer.

* Jason Churchill is working on the back half of his top 30 list (subscriber) for the Mariners and Blake Beavan checks in at 22 as a back roto arm.

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Parksie's new site

2011-02-22T13:20:00.003-06:00

The inimitable Jason Parks( BP, BBTIA) has launched his new prospect site, the farmer's almanac-sounding Texas Farm Review, which focuses on the Texas system. For a bargain-basement rate of only 19.95/yr, you too can converse with The Professor, so check it out. Both he and Jason Cole (Lonestardugout.com, 70/yr- also a great bargain for the content) will be covering prospects in ST again this year, so there will once again be some great info out there on the Texas system.

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ST Notes

2011-02-22T12:49:00.010-06:00

* Durrett scripts a piece about Borbon's improved defense, but only spends time talking about his throwing mechanics, which is still pretty interesting. though I've always wondered why the team didn't correct the issue while he was in the minors:

Borbon arrived at spring training in 2010 needing to get used to the mechanics of throwing the ball correctly and learning how to get proper backspin on it. He worked with Pettis and had several throwing sessions with David Murphy. He continued that work into the season. "The way that he takes the ball out of his glove and the way he can get the arm action going is like a true outfielder," Pettis said. "He can get on top of the baseall now. He can throw with four seams, like you tell a pitcher to do. His accuracy has improved. It’s all confidence. "When you’re not confident about doing something, you really don’t want to do it unless you have to. Now he wants to throw. There was time he’d back off because he knew he had a problem. Now he’s confident."

* I love Pedro Strop's stuff and people have completely overlooked him as a bullpen arm for 2011 based on his SSS struggles when called up last year (after dominating in AAA). I got a chance to watch quite a few of his outings on MiLBTV, and during one dominating stretch he was not scored upon for about a month. He has a swing-and-miss repertoire and touches 98. Yorvit also loves him some Strop:

Rangers catcher Yorvit Torrealba continues to learn the tendencies of his pitching staff and work with guys on a daily basis. He said the two pitchers that stuck out to him on Monday were Tommy Hunter and Pedro Strop. He liked Strop's command and felt like he has the stuff to be very good.

* More injury updates per Durrett:
Castillo walking around without a boot; Gentry swinging the fungo today; Hurley with a hamstring strain (ugh); and this gem from Webb after throwing a consecutive day of long toss, this time for 17 minutes: "That's crazy for me."

*Kudos to Evan Grant for hitting on a a nice theme in his spring training coverage that caters to his strength (reportage) and not to his weakness (talent eval) : Getting hitters to answer questions about pitchers. Though most people who closely follow the Texas system already know quite a bit about their prospects, this tact is sure to yield some interesting nuggets (and it's a common sense approach really - not sure why the beat writers haven't done more of this): He talks to Gentry and Blanco about Scheppers (though there were some who had already implied that he was a mechanical mess, but, as we all know, while ST in-game evaluation is not indicative of much, ST evaluation of non-game action matters even less):

Scheppers' fastball rode in hard on the left-handed hitters. His sharp slider left Blanco breathless.

"He made me look ridiculous," Blanco said. "I looked so bad. I was looking for a fastball and the breaking pitch comes out of his hand looking just like a fastball. He's got a good motion and good action."
Said Gentry: "He was just effortlessly throwing and it's like 93-94. When he gets that arm in shape, it's going to be scary."

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ST Notes

2011-02-21T16:07:00.007-06:00

* TRS has this note about Jose Julio Ruiz's contract situation:

The Rangers have to decide at the end of the season if they will exercise a three-year option on him.

* In what might be the most useful article Evan Grant has ever scripted about that most difficult and fleeting concepts (for him), "Neftali Feliz, the starting pitcher", he quotes players commenting on a cession of live BP:

David Murphy: "I think he still has some work to do on the changeup with his arm action. It was still slowing down a little. The slider wasn't the greatest slider I've ever seen, but it definitely had good movement and I didn't pick it up out of his hand."
Julio Borbon: "First, the fastball was, well, everybody knows how good it is, so I don't need to say anything there. He didn't throw me sliders, only changeups. They definitely had good downward bite. It's the kind of pitch that if you swing at, the best you are going to do is hit a chopper or roll over the ball for a ground ball out."
Mitch Moreland: "The changeup looked good. It had good action and he was on top of it to command it well."

To Grant's surprise, I guess, that changeup, has been Feliz's second pitch since he debuted with Texas in 2009, only a few months after switching to a split-finger grip at OKC (and broken out to devastating effect in that year's Futures Game). For whatever reason, Grant has been on one of his obsessive quests to prove that Feliz can't be a starter because he doesn't have any secs, or secs that he can command, or a good enough second pitch, or a good enough third pitch, or, well, you get the idea. Grant is always at his worst when trying to evaluate young prospects/players and his rants about Feliz for the last year are a case in point. At least you don't hear him peddling the "Alexi Ogando is more likely to be a starter" meme anymore (though it has been replaced by the "Kirkman is better than Holland" one). Anyways, that's quieted down quite a bit, this iron-clad, front office sourced nugget, hasn't it? Beat writers are often at risk of naively accepting overly positive org. spin on prospects, and players. In a strange twist, the opposite holds in this instance, and the dour assessment seems all Grant.

* Near as I can tell Andres Blanco didn't spend any time catching in the LVBP this off season.

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ST Notes

2011-02-20T16:46:00.009-06:00

If my salutary warning some 7 weeks ago about Webb's rehab issues last year weren't enough for you to pencil him onto the DL to begin the season, maybe the latest camp update of his continuing saga will bring you around:

At first, the Rangers' plan was to have him throw off a mound every third day, and Sunday was going to be that day. Maddux doesn't feel Webb has the arm strength to be throwing off a mound right now. Instead, he will be playing catch and throwing long-toss in the outfield. Long toss -- which is playing catch at a distance of 120 feet or more -- is the best way to build up arm strength. "He's not getting on the mound until we do more long toss and build up arm strength," Maddux said. "He needs to strengthen up before he throws downhill."

It turns out that Migge de los Santos (MDLS) did suffer some sort of minor injury that forced him from his last start for the Toros on 1/13 after going 3 innings. The beat writers are reporting that he is still sidelined with biceps tendinitis. He has little room for error given his age and lack of experience in full-season ball, and he might event be pushing into "injury-prone" territory (and maybe to a future bullpen role) if his most recent injury forces him to miss much time.

Durrett had this update on Tateyama:
Tateyama said he's making the transition to the United States just fine. He spent the offseason throwing with a MLB baseball to get used to its size. Tateyama said the Japanese ball is slightly smaller and the seams are thinner and thicker. So it just feels different. The pitcher throws a slider, changeup and cutter and said the slider is his out pitch. "I wanted to pitch in the best league in the world," Tateyama said. Tateyama impressed pitching coach Mike Maddux early in camp with his command and deceptive delivery.

Round Rock. Per Evan Grant, Chris Davis says Texas wants him to mainly work at 3B this spring so Texas might be showcasing his versatility to other clubs. It is actually good news for Jose Julio Lopez as well (and might give a second life to Johnny Whittleman and/or Johnathan Greene as well), as it likely means that Davis starts at 3b for Round Rock with Lopez getting the starting nod at 1b there (as opposed to being stuck in Frisco). This also means that Brian Barden moves off 3b to become the utility infieder (has ML experience the last 2 years, and has played every position but catcher and CF over the last 3 years) and should push Matt Kata off the roster, and maybe even Brad Nelson as well if Texas goes with an 8-man pen.

Don't forget to check out my projected rosters in the sidebar. All transactions are updated daily.

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Spring Training Report

2011-02-18T10:15:00.009-06:00

Injury Updates:

Omar Beltre: lost for at least 3 months if not the whole year with a genetic condition that causes narrowing of the spine that requires some sort of surgery (probably to create some space between bone and nerves). I've made note of Beltre's extensive injury history (shoulder, elbow) since the fall of 2008, noting that he was probably a DL baby from here on out (at 30yo) and that a bullpen role was probably best for him in order to keep him healthy. Last year, Beltre was on and off the DL all year, and in and out of the rotation as well after missing all of 2009. He also had a weird winter league pitching schedule this year which started late and ended abruptly, so I suspect that he was dealing with this issue then, if not for the last 2 years in some capacity. Reports note that he dealt with numbness in his extremities last year and it continued into the off-season so the team has probably been evaluating the issue anew since shutting him down in December.

Craig Gentry: the injury prone kid might not be on the mend. His broken wrist still has him in some pain and he will be reevaluated by a specialist. Worst case scenario, Eric Hurley. Gentry and Endy Chavez (seems healthy now after a season in winter ball) were probably going to compete for the 5th OF role whenever that role would be needed. It is likely that Endy Chavez (if healthy) will be the guy now if Gentry's wrist is still a problem, and that is not a bad thing if healthy, as he's a better hitter, with lots of ML experience and a stellar glove man, but old of course.
UPDATE: Gentry gets shot, scans negative.

Brandon Webb: As I wrote some weeks ago - see Brandon Webb's Shoulder - I felt that Webb was unlikely to make his debut in the rotation given the nature of the problems he had last year during his rehab. If the first week of camp is any indication (sometimes it is, sometimes it ain't), Webb is on track to debut on the DL and get some innings in AAA:

Webb Day One:
At one point during the session, Maddux gave Webb an adjustment to try to keep him from "flying open.""Mechanically, he's rusty," Maddux said. "He's inconsistent with his delivery right now and he's got to tighten the ship on that. We went over some things and got a brief look."Webb said he felt good after the session but that he has to fight the tendency for his arm to get ahead of his body. It's something he'll address more on Sunday.

Webb Day Two:
While most of the Rangers' pitchers are throwing off a mound every two days and throwing some pitches to live hitters, Webb is going to throw off a mound every three days and not pitch to live hitting yet.

I think the uncertainty about Webb made the Dave Bush signing a must and he could prove to be a very valuable signing as a 5th starter should Webb begin the season on the DL. Even if he is not in the roto to begin the season, I think he makes the club as the long man/spot starter in a similarly valuable role.

Fabio Castillo: As I noted before, has a fractured foot. Is currently in a walking boot.

Chad Tracy: Being held out of the OF for now, as he continues to strengthen his shoulder from off-season shoulder surgery.

Scott Feldman: As expected, Feldman seems to be out of the running for a rotation spot until June while he rehabs his knee so he'll be moved to the 60 day DL as soon as 2/26. He likely won't throw off the mound until April and then pitch a month in AAA.

Scatter Shots:
"Tired Meme" alert #1: "Texas has 12 starting pitchers competing for 5 spots. Texas has more depth among starting pitching candidates than in recent memory. "

Let's unpack this: Hurley is not a candidate for the rotation as he will have his innings limited after missing 2 years; Beltre would have been the 13th (Feldman the 14th, and don't forget Seth McClung, who took last year "off"), now shelved, but who I argued should have been moved to the pen to keep his arm/elbow healthy; Scheppers is not a candidate for the rotation as he needs innings as a starter in AAA; it will either be Feliz or Ogando (or neither one) but not both, and I'm not convinced that Ogando has a third pitch to start (among other issues); Webb has missed 2 years and I predict he starts the year getting innings in AAA; Harrison has lost the trust of Texas coaches in whatever role he's in. Kirkman has terrible command vs RHH and a fringy changeup so is most likely to start in the AAA rotation; Holland has regressed since his debut and has a lot to prove; Hunter imploded for a couple of months last year and struggled in the playoffs.

Only seven "candidates" pitched at least 100 innings last year: 2 of those are on the DL and 2 others did it in AAA (Lewis 200+; Wilson 200+; Hunter 155; Holland 134; Feldman (DL)145; Kirkman 150 AAA; Beltre (DL)102 AAA; Bush 174). Not to mention that 2 others haven't pitched in 2 years. So what kind of depth are we talking about? Get real.

"Tired Meme" alert #2:
"The following pitchers looked impressive throwing live BP today" - (rotate 1/2 dozen names each day): Ryan Tucker, Mason Tobin, Y. Tateyama, Zach Jackson, Zach Phillips, Seth McClung.

According to TR Sullivan, Schepper's mechanics were all awry, meriting some extra attention from Maddux, with the assertion that he has a lot of work ahead of him. Hmm. I still stick to my prediction that he will be ready to move into the rotation at mid-season if needed.

Count Maddux as one of the guys in the "Feliz can be a #1" camp:
"What I do like is you have the potential of having a No. 1-type starter," Maddux said. "What I don't like about it: You wouldn't be having your No. 1 closer.
"But at the end of the day, if you are faced with that decision, would you rather have 70 innings out of your No. 1 guy or 200 innings out of your No. 1 guy? It's kind of a no-brainer."

According to Wilson, Texas put Feliz on an "long-toss-intensive throwing program to get him more stretched out than he had been last spring". Not sure what that means really. Does it mean that Texas failed to stretch him out properly last year or is this just misspeak? Whatever the case, I assume that Ogando is on the same program (since early December) as he has only 3 starts in his entire career.

I still refuse to buy into the idea that Ogando is "ahead" of Feliz when it comes to becoming a starter given that Feliz was a starter in the minors and Ogando was not. In addition, I don't buy the idea that Ogando has better secs than Feliz just because Ogando threw his slider more often than Feliz threw his curveball, with both rarely unsheathing a third pitch. Basically what I know about Feliz is that both his changeup and curveball have flashed above-average to plus in the past including last year.

The crux of the issue to me is not "who has the better secs?", though it is not clear to me that Ogando's split change is good enough to be a starter, but, who has the better pitchability. Ogando has never been a starter at anytime during his entire career so he is the one he has to prove he knows how to pitch well enough to start. Feliz already has about 200 innings as a starter so Texas should already know whether he is ready to start or not. Another issue might be whether or not Feliz wants to start, and given his public pronouncements about his love for closing, maybe the outcome is already a fait accompli.

Another critical issue with Ogando is the increased injury risk associated with a huge jump in innings given his unique profile. Though Evan Grant has done his best so far to peddle the "pen to rotation injury risk" meme so far, there has never been any common sense data to support this contention. Neither Feldman, Wilson nor Lewis were really ever injury risks: Feldman lost his stuff last year, not his health; Wilson pitched every other day for the last 4.5 years and started in the minors; Colby Lewis threw 180 innings for 2 consecutive years while pitching once a week in Japan. What the Feldman and Wilson case seem to prove, supporting what seems to be a generally accepted position on the matter, is that pitching 50-70 innings per year while throwing every other day for at least a couple of years seems to condition the arm just fine for pitching 3x as many innings every fifth day as a starter.

Now this is where Ogando is a unique case where his injury risk might be elevated by a large increase in innings. He has accumulated only 93 innings from 2006-2009, missing 2008 altogether (that I can tell). His 73 innings this year (plus the playoffs) are the first time in his career that he has gone over 35 innings in a season. So basically the assumption seems to be that Ogando will have no problem pitching the same amount of innings this year as a starter as he has accumulated over the last 5 years _combined_. Given that this year was the first year that he has pitched in a full season league (March thru October), he hasn't even really thrown every other day in his career save for this year. If there were a commonsense case for future injury due to a transition from pen to roto due to the increased innings, Ogando would seem to fit the profile. Texas doesn't seem to be concerned however, though I'm not sure why exactly; his situation is not the same as Wilson or Feldman.

#####

J2 Preview

2011-02-17T12:04:00.003-06:00

The DPL has the first preview of the 2011 j2 scene up at their site. However, it only includes Dominican players who played in the DPL this season so is not comprehensive. I mentioned Guzman and Hernandez in my earlier post.

####

2011 j2 scene

2011-02-13T14:14:00.009-06:00

As I wrote some weeks ago, i expect TX to slightly change its model for pursing j2 players with the change in ownership. With the resources to finally compete like a big market team, I predicted that Texas would finally venture into the rarefied air of the 2-3+ million dollar position prospects. Now while Texas has made an exception to this rule for pitching on occasion (might have gone toward 2m$ for Adys Portillo, and did bid from 5-7m$ for Michael Ynoa, but who I don't think were willing to go 2$m for Guillermo Pimentel to continue the rule), it simply doesn't do this for j2 hitters. Texas has never really been players for the elite hitters in the j2 market, those in the 2 -3.3 million plus range, guys like Sano, Sanchez, and (for some) Mateo to name 3 most recent examples. As a general rule, if you want to sign a j2 power hitter, your looking at starting the bidding at 2.5. Now there are only a few, never more than 3, of those types in the market in any given year, so if you want a young hitter who projects for elite power, then you have to pay. So far, Texas has been unwilling to pony up.

This year, Texas was not really a player for any 7-figure guys due to the convoluted sale process and the team's inopportune turn toward bankruptcy during the meat of the signing timeline (July/August). The front office meme of course was that we lacked interest because it was a "weak market". Right. At Ranger's beat writer Jamey Newberg's latest Ra-Ra, , the first thing that Welke notes (about the 35m minute mark of Ted Price's feed) about this it that it was the bankruptcy that forced Texas out of the market. Hope we can put that to rest now. Thanks for that last parting shot, Tom Hicks. I think they did manage to sign a couple of interesting prospects who signed late in order to salvage the 2010 j2 debacle but there isn't an elite player in the bunch, though Odor is intriguing, and likely debuts stateside if his hitting is as advanced as some say it is, and they only spent on the order of 1 million (announced).

However this year will likely usher in a new approach, with both the draft and j2 stratagems, spending like a big market club on bonus monies. The most interesting thing that Welke had to say, actually, was that Texas is currently hotly pursuing 3 of the elite players from the next j2 class and that he was off on a trip to Miami for work related to that end. So while 2009 saw the unprecedented signing of not only the first 7-figure sign from the j2 market but a total of three, 2011 might usher in the first 3 million dollar sign. If there happens to be two 3 million dollar signs, well, this will certainly cause a fit of apoplectic joy among Texas prospectors. I also think you could see a more opportune club in the draft as well, not skipping elite players due to their bonus demands, and not hesitating to pull the trigger on one or a few kids who falls because of it, whether early or late .

In that Welke interview, I found out that he is the guy (or one of them) that loves Leury Garcia (20minute mark, second video), and likely the guy who has Newberg's ear on the matter(though not apparently the "if he can hit" part), when, really, the kid is an org guy, who'll have trouble hitting his way through the upper minors in addition to clearly having issues with his hands/actions. Welke also noted that Fabio Castillo broke his foot, which might prevent him from getting a long look in spring training.

And as I have said previously, I hope that I have time to write a piece which looks at what I think is a questionable draft strategy by Texas since Jon Daniel's and staff have come on board, which is drafting tools over likely ceiling, or as Don Welke called the deliberate strategy, "whales over minnows". If you just take a cursory look at the history of this approach, there haven't been any whales, and if that approach is now the established scouting culture int he organization, there is unlikely to be much internal criticism of the failures of the approach. If you swing big and miss most of the time, who can be blamed, if you still believe that it just takes one guy? Some aspects of the complete absence of talent in the upper minors right now lies in the failure of this approach to take some college kids who are near locks to be average major league players and quickly progress through the system. Maybe its possible that this strategy works if you can spend a lot more money or maybe Texas developed this kind of strategy because they didn't have a lot of bonus money to spend? What I hope happens for this year's draft is a bit of a shift in strategy in general but alos just in case a bonus cap emerges for 2012 or a an international draft happens in 2012 or 2013, that Texas simply picks the best player available and pays him. If this strategy fails, then I can live with it. But then, the definition of the BPA might be the crux of the issue here, at least when it comes to evaluating the ceiling for high school players.

UPDATE
Two of the top hitters in this year's j2 crop are both outfielders: Elier Hernandez and Ronald Guzman (LH, 6.4/170). Guzman won the HR derby at this years DPL all-star game (mid-season) and was also at the Under Armour showcase last August. (per Badler)

#########

International Notes

2011-02-08T20:38:00.007-06:00

Dominican Nats. The Post has a feature up on the Nat's Dominican recrudescence with a set of stills as well.

Cuban Ceilings. The Rays released Leslie Anderson today. He raked in AA last year at age 28 but fell off quite a bit once in AAA. The word (when it was postive) last year during his showcases was that his ceiling was that of a 4th OF type. If Texas is lucky, maybe Jose Julio Ruiz (26) turns out to be the better bench bat in the end. Ruiz has a lot to prove in ST however.

I wonder if it is just a coincidence that Texas signed Ruiz the same weekend that Young made his trade request? The in-house candidates (in addition to rotating starters and D-Murph through that spot) to platoon at DH with Napoli (though his splits, year to year, over the last 5 years have been pretty erratic to my surprise) are Chris Davis (25), and Jose Ruiz. Chad Tracy (25.7) would be the only prospect who could compete for a spot as a RH bench bat. Anyways, I like rooting for these kind of guys for reserve roles that might suit them well (though they each have much to prove), but I'd rather have a veteran bat off the bench for a playoff-caliber club.

It seems that Napoli should not play more than 100 games, and should not be overexposed vs RHP, so maybe the ideal for him would be a 60/40 game split (LHP/RHP). However, one has to ask, now that Young appears to be on a rail out of town (and even if he wasn't), will Warsh acknowledge that Napoli is a 100 game bench bat? I say no.

######

JD interview

2011-02-03T19:22:00.008-06:00

The DMN transcribed an interview that JD did on 1310. Some nice tidbits on Feliz:

The question is whether he can do that in general and whether he can do that now. If he can I think we have to seriously consider adjusting our plans in the bullpen. Whether that means that myself in the front office and our scouts, we need to go find someone else to help solidify the back end, or whether somebody else internally can do it. If he is not ready to do that, maybe he never is, or maybe it’s a couple years down the road.

I'm usually don't put too much stock in Nolan Ryan's player evaluation skills, but he said in an interview with Evan Grant that he really likes Kirkman as a dark horse candidate and is still the only TX official (and the likely source for Grant's Ogando meme) who publicly proclaims Ogando as a legit starter and more advanced than Feliz. Just to clarify: Ogando never started a game in his entire career, until his 3 starts this year to begin the season (not really as a starter per say as he was only getting stretched out). In addition, he never pitched more than 50 innings in his entire career until last year. Does that sound like a starter to you? No.

Also, Ryan's description of Kirkman sounds like he's talking about a reliever, his likely role in 2011 with the club when not in AAA. Kirkman's changeup was below average in 2010, and his fastball command versus RHH was terrible. Unless Texas made some changes with the kid during his time in the bullpen last year, say, altered his grip on his changeup or tweaked his delivery so that his command vs RHH is much improved, he will start 2011 in the AAA rotation. As it stands, I think Dave Bush makes the team as the long reliever and spot starter (or in the rotation if Webb has the same issues thwarting his comeback as he did last year) and Holland is in the rotation. Holland is too talented to leave him out of the rotation, just too talented, even if he has a poor spring.

######

Ben Petralli

2011-02-01T21:51:00.002-06:00

I always wondered why Ben Petralli didn't sign. It appears that his contract was voided back when Texas drafted him (again) in 2008.

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Serie del Caribe

2011-02-01T17:36:00.005-06:00

The Caribbean Series starts on Wednesday featuring the playoff winners from each of the 4 winter ball leagues: Criollos (PR); Yaquis (MX); Caribes (VZ); Toros (DO). The rosters might be a little variable for various reasons and might not be set until game time, though they are likely to carry a lot of players with team even if they aren't on the active roster. A few present or former Rangers will be (or might be) on the rosters.

The Criollos will have Ivan Rody, Ramon Vazquez, Kiko Calero and Alex Cora. The Yaquis will have Victor Diaz. The Caribes will have Rosman Garcia and Endy Chavez (though another report says he is not on the roster). Chavez had a nice playoff run and will bat leadoff. Don't count him out to beat out Craig Gentry for the 5th OF role on the club next year. His career splits vs LHP are even but they sucked during the last 2 years before his injury. Guillermo Moscoso does not appear with the team though he was in the VZ rotation last year. Oakland might have held him out.

The Toros might have Brandon McCarthy, Doug Mathis, Esteban German, Ruddy Yan, Jumbo Diaz and (per one report, though this would seem suspect) Alexi Ogando. Miguel de los Santos will not be with the club after suffering some sort of injury during his playoff start on 1/13. I have yet to confirm the nature of the injury but suspect that it might be minor and that Texas has sent him home as a precaution. His winter schedule has been very odd leading me to believe that he was removed from the active roster to begin the season to work on some things with the staff after 2 appearances (end Oct) reappearing again in mid-November and stretched out for the rotation. He then either went home on vacation or suffered a minor injury as he didn't make another appearance until the end of December and followed that up with 2 playoff appearances before his injury in his third start.

The series will be hosted in Puerto Rico and broadcast on ESPNDeportes and ESPN3 (archived for up to one week).

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Fitt on Cole and Bauer

2011-02-01T16:24:00.002-06:00

I have to agree with Ben Bradley that Aaron Fitt over at BA has scripted a very nice article on UCLA's Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer.

#######

Cuban BoSox

2011-01-29T01:58:00.011-06:00

An overview of some recent Cuban signings by the BoSox. Last Cuban signing by TX? Reinier Bermudez. I can only hope that the Rangers were very interested in some of the most recent Cuban defectors - the largest influx of Cuban players in more than a decade - but were Hicks-crippled.

UPDATE:
Speaking of Cubans, Jose Julio Ruiz (26, 4/1) signed a minor league deal with ST invite. Texas was reportedly interested in him last year (search this site for "Ruiz"). He was thought to have a higher ceiling than Leslie Anderson but the reverse has proven to be true so far. Ruiz was released by the Rays during the off-season. A big LH power hitter in Cuba at 1B, he only hit 4 HR over 87 games between 4 leagues (DSL, AA, AFL, PWL). He also played some LF but given his size you'd think that 1b is his likely spot.

There were some questions about his work ethic, about being out of shape during his try outs, etc, so we'll see have to see how he looks in camp. Cuban defectors often have to sit out of baseball action for a year waiting for their paperwork to be approved (for residency, for entry and for applying to become a ML free agent) so that could have affected his play. It is a low-risk signing with some reward. Even with the power outage, maybe he turns out to be a utility type player at 1b/COF/DH who is a nice contact hitter?

UPDATE:
Thad Levine had this to say:
"We did a lot of work on him last year," Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine said. "We were probably runners-up when he signed. He's a guy who will probably start at Double-A or Triple-A, so we can get around him and see what he can do. That's not necessarily based on ability, but just getting regular at-bats."

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FIP

2011-01-28T15:00:00.001-06:00

Don't miss the Luck Dragon in BWoodrum's Sesame Street-esque video about FIP at dRaysBay.com.

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BA Player Rankings

2011-01-26T13:27:00.014-06:00

not that I care all too much about it anymore I guess. BA has TX farm system ranked 15th while Keith Law pegs them at 12. I think a 12-15 ranking is about right given the complete lack of upper level depth. However, we could see a rapid progression of higher ceiling kids to the AA and high A level by the end of July, giving the sytem a much different flavor by then. The rotation depth from HighA to the AZL is phenomenal, though you can't really assume more than back roto ceilings (for now) on the kids likely to start there in 2011. The position player depth from LowA to the AZL is very good though there may not be many players with more than an average ML ceiling. There will also be a couple of nice players in the DSL for 2011. For now, the DSL pitching depth is NIL unless there are some signings we don't know about. There will surely be a few more breakout players this year unlike last year and a few more who we already respect who will make some rapid progress through the system. Check out my projected minor league rosters for 2011 to get a handle on the that lower level depth. Anyways, here are the BA player rankings:

1. M. Perez
2. Profar
3. Scheppers
4. Erlin
5. E. Beltre
6. Kirkman
7. Olt
8. Sardinas
9. Skole
10. MDLS
11. D. Perez
12. Villanueva
13. R. Mendez
14. Font
15. L. Garcia
16. K. Deglan
17. J. Alfaro
18. J. Grimm
19. Ross
20. Velazquez
21. Jackson
22. Wieland
23. F. Castillo
24. Loux
25. Hoying
26. Felix
27. NeRa
28. Buckel
29. Richmond
30. Brigham
31. Melo

A few comments: Per my usual gripes, Leury Garcia is an org guy, and not a top 30 prospect; R. Mendez is an exciting, inconsistent, injury prone player, so probably a back 20 kid, who might pan out as anything from a #2 to a #4 to a closer, setup arm or flame out; I've had Melo as a top 30 prospect since his acquisition- and exciting kid; Loux is a top 15 kind a guy, a solid #3 ceiling; NeRa is confounding and exciting, and probably right about where he should be given his lack of history in the upper minors; I still love Jake Brigham though he is likely a setup arm, with a shot at a 3_4 kind of starter (his changeup, and Breaking ball command are the mounts he has to climb); I think Richmond is a potential breakout candidate, if healthy, and if some predraft reports are on the mark (3rd-rd talent); I think Buckel and Jackson are top 15 guys, if you rank prospects by ceiling alone, better than Kirkman, MDLS, Erlin etc; Alfaro is a big risk as a ceiling only kid who has yet to make his US debut; David Perez, not so much - a very exciting, projectable arm, who TX signed for a bargain price as he velo was down post j2 (we'll see how his secs are come ST); if you're going to rank Alfaro as a top 15 type then you should also rank Jordan Akins (5-tool player, best athlete in incredible Georgia class) in the same area code - be consistent at least; Justin Grimm is a very exciting arm, whose ceiling is pretty variable depending on what TX has to do with his mechanics to make him more consistent. Leonel "Macumba" de los Santos (LDLS) turned out to be very overrated and perhaps the biggest crash and burn prospect of 2010 (though his suspect hit tool was there for all to see via his peripherals).

I'm up and down on Felix. Through the hard work of himself and the staff, he made remarkable improvement in his catchability during the offseason between 2009 and 2010. I listened to more than a few games while he was in Bakersfield in which the Felix and Sarmiento platoon was arguable the worst in that league, constantly belittled by opposing pxp guys. However, his accuracy and pop times (with only a solid average arm per Jason Cole) improved dramatically in 2010, allowing him to completely shut down the running game while his catchability behind the plate also showed impressive improvement. As I've written before, one has to evaluate the overall defensive presence of a catching prospect in order to get an accurate handle on their ceiling, what I call catchability. Too often, people dream on a catchers arm and ability to control the running game, but unless your speaking about a plus plus tool on the order of Pudge Rody (plus plus arm, pop times, agility, reflexes), catchbility (overall catching skills: game calling, ball blocking, baseball IQ, running game, WP/PB allowed, working with pitchers) is the most important indicator about a catcher's ceiling.

A prime example of "arm hype" was Manny Pina. In the low minors, there was no surcease in praise about the kids arm. However, his catchability was very underdeveloped by every other measure and his English was horrible to boot (making it tough to communicate with pitchers and coaches). I thought he was much better in HighA than he really was in that regard because people seemed to confuse his "defense" (read, arm) with his catchability (which was not great). However between his High A and AA season (working nonstop with Scott Service on his entire skill set if I remember correctly per multiple sources) he improved to an incredible degree on the other elements of his catchability, and put himself on the map as a legit #2 catcher (mediated only by his limited hit tool). Sounds just like Felix in fact. And along with Pina, Felix's hit tool is the thing that likely makes him a fringy #2 catcher or a 4A kid. I guess the ideal would be a Matt Treanor kind of guy, but who should be able to control the running game. I think his hit tool is pretty bad, so he is more likely to end up a #3 catcher than keep a steady job, but you would think that he will play in the bigs at least for a little bit, shuttling between ML and AAA at the very least.

Kellin Deglan seems to be ranked too high who seems more of a longer-term project than expected based on his draft reports. Skole, Olt and Villanueva might also be ranked too high whether you go by ceiling or likely result (finge-average to average). If Skole sticks in CF then his value is much greater; if he is a LF as I suspect then I don't like him as much. Olt might turn out to be a low average kinda guy with some contact issues if he pans out but the AL league average OPS at 3B is not all that great. Villanueva is that kid you love to root for though if he had not been injured in 2009, I bet his 2010 would've have been no surprise. He could be a different kind of 3b, a kid who hits for a higher average and less power (with nice D) but the ML profile for 3B are highly variable and a kid like him could find a spot if he puts it all together. Miguel Velazquez should not be considered a prospect anymore, and, if the club were less tolerant about players of his ilk (I feel the same about DGut, Danny Gutierrez, and possibly Mason Tobin), someone who should not be brought back in 2011 due to his crippling makeup issues - he ended the season suspended, banished to PR. I love Robbie Ross, who is still underrated, and still breaking bats. I don't think an injured player like Font should be ranked until they show they are healthy.

I think Wieland is a back roto arm (#4 ceiling) no matter where you rank him and though he has been overrated ever since Nolan Ryan touted him as the next power arm in the system (none of those off-season adjustments stuck by the way). Matt Thompson has been and is overrated, though he does not appear on this list. Goldstein and others once thought of him as being a sleeper, and possible #2 ceiling, who has always seemed like a back roto guy to me (now a #5). BA threw out the same kind of hype for Fredo Boscan a few years back, nowhere to be seen on the list these days. However, I still like Boscan and Pimentel as back roto arms, #5 types, and if you rank prospects on likely outcomes (now in the upper minors), rather than on unrealistic dreaminess, those 2 should have a place in a top 30.

I don't believe in ranking low-ceiling relievers in principle, only closer/setup types, and even then not in the top 15, as all starters (position/pitchers) have a great deal more value if you hit on them. So I think that a guy like Fabio Castillo is probably about right, the 20's, as his ceiling is as a setup arm, due to his command issues, makeup, and mechanical inconsistencies. Pedro Strop should be ahead of Castillo in the 16-25 range given his ceiling and proximity though his makeup is now a concern. Hoying is a wildcard. You can rank him or not. He likely will not _earn_ a ranking until he carries over his success and unorthodox hit tool (and staff-implemented adjustments) into the upper minors. Though unranked, I think Victor Payano might be overrated. I think Richard Alvarez has always been overrated (though currently unranked). I never bought into the Tullis hype; high ground ball rates in short-season ball are always misleading, and Tullis' ceiling is completely dependent on the quality of his sinker (which no one really knew anything about until after this year - it isn't good enough to be anything more than a back roto arm, likely a #5).

A lot of low-level kids not on the list, particularly the MIF prospects, though there is only so much room. The MIF depth from LowA to DSL is impressive. I look forward to reading the ST reports about them from Jason Cole and Jason Parks as all these kids compete against each other, giving us a glimpse of their talent levels, and future positions: Profar (missed ST 2010), Sardinas, Hill, Herrera, Odor, Alberto, Triunfel, Marte, Urbanus, Mendez, The Garcia Brothers (even Roof). The most underrated player in the system might be Chad Bell, who is a top 15 player in my opinion, with a solid #3 ceiling. Players that I really like, all of whom merit consideration on any top 30 whatever the ranking methodology: Randol Rojas, Nick McBride, Chris Hanna. I like Santiago Chirino Hill and Drew Robinson (in LF). I like Justin Miller. Anyone who mentions Zach Phillips before they mention Pedro Strop, doesn't know prospects. I still like Andrew Doyle and Trevor Hurley as starters. As I stated during pre-seaon 2010, Tommy Mendonca will have a break out year in 2011. I still dream on Ruben Sierra Jr. Each of Scheppers, Kirkman, OBeltre and Hurley have a lot to prove this year. I think Omar Beltre (unranked) will win the last bullpen spot.

Adios mi amigo Guillermo Moscoso.

UPDATE:
To belabor a theme: Engel Beltre is overrated:
KLAW had this to say in today's chat:

Brady (Texas): I was surprised to not see Engal Beltre in the top 100. I've heard some great things about him of late. Any thoughts?
Klaw: Call me when he takes a walk.

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Notes

2011-01-23T20:13:00.006-06:00

Nelson Cruz:

On why he isn't playing winter ball this year:

"It wasn't my decision. It was the Rangers' decision. I always like to play and that's what I do. I play baseball. It doesn't seem like a long time for most of my teammates, but for me it's been a long time because I was playing winter ball. It was kind of boring being at home and not doing anything, just practicing and running. I think the rest I am getting is going to pay off in the end. ... But I have one goal. And that's try to be healthy."

On where he learned his batting stance:

"That was in '07 when I got sent down. The hitting coach and the minor league instructor taught me to hit like that. At first it was kind of uncomfortable. They told me to be kind of like Carlos Lee and Derek Lee. They gave me some video tapes and tried to show me a couple of batting stances. And I got it from there."

Chad Tracy:
Chad Tracy received a ST invite. People may have forgotten about him. People may have already discounted him as a viable prospect. Not me. He missed almost half of the season and the AFL/winter ball due to a ribcage/oblique injury. Tracy is a cerebral hitter, constantly tinkering with his swing, often to a fault, in addition to being the streakiest hitter in the system. He has plus power when he makes contact. He is a dead fastball hitter and his ceiling is a platoon bat. Just the kind of bat that TX is looking to add right now (DH, 1B, COF). He is fringe average to below average at either position but won't hurt you that much if he is only playing 60games. He's slow in the outfield and his glove at 1b isnt' all that great (though he needs more experience at both spots). The big question with Tracy is: 1. can he hit ML quality offspeed stuff and 2. can he settle on a more basic approach (and everything that this entails) to keep him out of profound slumps and/or allow him to work out of them more quickly.

Anyways, Tracy is the kind of guy you should root for and I hope he does well in camp, and parlays that into a long career as a powerful platoon bat vs LHP.

Darren O'Day
Settles for a 1.251m salary for 2011. I predicted around 1.2m. He has been about as valuable as a MR can be over the last 2 years (2.2WAR, 1.3/.9) so that amount is well deserved.

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BA Notes

2011-01-21T13:56:00.003-06:00

Seattle just reduced Peguero's bonus from 2.9 to 1.1m and reworked his signing date. No word on why other than speculation that he has some type of injury. If he tested positive for PEDS after his signed he would be suspended by the league so it probably isnt' that.

The Cubs actually consider MaxRam as a viable b/u catcher to my surprise:
The Cubs claimed catcher Max Ramirez on waivers from the Red Sox, who had previously claimed him from the Rangers. He'll go to camp and compete alongside veteran Koyie Hill and 23-year-old Welington Castillo for the backup catcher spot. Castillo did not help his case by hitting .193 in 27 games for Licey this winter in the Dominican Republic.

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Miggie Injury?

2011-01-20T18:44:00.002-06:00

Anecdotal evidence that MDLS suffered some sort of injury after putting in some nice outings down Dominican way (from Scott Lucas:

Miguel de los Santos might be done. Last pitched on 13th, not among 4 announced starters for Dom. League finals which started Wed.

I'll see if I can root out any more info in the LA press as soon as I have some time....

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J2 SUMMARY

2011-01-18T20:00:00.003-06:00

So Texas has spent about 1.5 million on 7 j2 signs that are worthy of a press release (any player signing for more than 50k by that measure). Or, about the same amount as a Profar or Sardinas signing bonus. Curse you Tom Hicks. Also, note that there was only one notable signing from Venezuela, which has been the strength of the last 3-4 j2 classes:

Rougned Odor, MIF, 425k, VZ
Alberto Triunfel, MIF, 300k, DR
Fernando Vivilli, C, 300K, (DR?)
Luis Marte, MIF(3b?), 215k, DR
Joe LeClair, RHP, 90K, (DR?)
Nick Urbanus, 2b, est 100k, NL
Nirotoshi, Onaka, CF, est 70k, JP

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Arb Figures

2011-01-18T17:43:00.006-06:00

Per various sources:

Hambone wants 12m; TX offering 8.7m
(I predicted 6.5m, doubling his 3.25m salary, so I'll bump that to 10m)

Francisco wants 4.875m; TX offers 3.5m
(I predicted 4.2m)

O'Day wants 1.4; TX offers 1.05m
( I had 1.5m so I'll predict 1.2m)

DMurph agreed to a 2.4m deal
(I had 1.2m)

No word on figures for Cruz or Wilson, who I had at 3.5m and 4.5m respectively. I am going to stick with Cruz's # at 3.5m but raise Wilson's to 6.2.

With those adjusted arb figures, that bumps my payroll estimate from 90.59 to 95.79. I would say you can bump that up around 800k-1m, penciling in the acquisition of a RH hitter sometime before opening day. So I predict the TX payroll will be about 96.5-97m by opening day. Bump it up a bit more if they acquire a mid-roto arm, say 6-8m, by opening day or during July and that could bump this year's payroll to 100m. I would imagine they might do some cost-cutting (somehow) if they are in that area code by opening day.

UPDATE:
Texas has agreed to figures with Wilson and Cruz for 7 and 3.65m. So that bumps my estimated 2011 payroll to 95m, which likely gets bumped to 96 with the addition of a bat.

UPDATE:
A link to my payroll worksheet is up in the side bar now.

UPDATE:
So in talking over the payroll worksheet with some LSB folks, some prefer to focuse solely on the payroll for the active roster while I included the major league splits for everyone on the 40-man roster. The minor league splits can range from 35-65k, with some six year free agents making over 100k. So my 95m figure is modeled on the Cots worksheet which also budgets all major league contracts.

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Notes

2011-01-16T11:07:00.009-06:00

Miggie Injury? Ming over at the Newberg MiL forum has a link up noting that Miggie de los Santos did not return for the 4th inning due to some kind of injury. No further notes though so hopefully it is minor.

Enrique Rojas is reporting that Manny Ramirez has signed a 1/4m deal with the Angels.

Juaquin Arias injured his "right arm" for Escogido. The shoulder injury (among other things) that derailed his career was originally sustained playing CF in the Dominican.

No confirmation on whether Texas was in on Jeff Francis but it appears unlikely that they would have successfully woo'd him as he felt KC was a good fit for him - must have been a PT issue, a guaranteed spot or something to rebuild his value?

Nick Cafardo says that TX might have some minor interest in Bonderman. I doubt he would accept an NRI on a split contract but that is all that I would offer. At some point, you just have to go with your younger back roto prospects, as they will all likely have an FIP in the 4.8-5.0 range, with the younger guys capable of outperforming that.

Probably going to be a slow few weeks until ST gears up unless there is a major trade brewing for a starter or something. I think TX will trade for a flexible RHH to come off the bench, when that happens is anyone's guess but I'm sure they have already identified guys that they like. Might see an announcement of a j2 sign or find out about an unannounced one once ST opens. With the failure, to acquire/sign either an elite or mid-roto arm, the Rangers off-season remains incomplete, though they arguably go into ST with a stronger club than they had in 2010. Beltre, Torrealba, and Rhodes all make the club stronger. Moving Young to 1b/DH improves the club in a number of areas. Starting the season with Moreland is an upgrade. Starting the season with Treanor is at least a necessary lateral move given the complete lack of ML ready catchers in the system. Andres Blanco opens with the club. Mark Lowe opens with the club. Francisco offers nice flexibility to the pen in a different role. The AAA club has been bolstered with a lot of guys with ML experience at each position, to provide some bodies in case of short-term injuries, while the CF spot has 2 guys in Gentry and Chavez who can fill in for Borbon in case he goes down (should they not wish to move Hambone to CF at all). Any other tweaks can be made during the first month or two, same as last year.

The biggest weakness for the club is obviously the lack of starters with a long record of success. I think Colby Lewis is the best pitcher on the club and not likely to regress much in 2011. Wilson is much more likely to regress given his terrible walk rate versus RHH especially if his hit and hr rate tic up. Feldman likely won't contribute to the rotation until mid-May or June as he is likely to be DL'd and stretched out in AAA and even then he is a complete wildcard and only a back roto arm. Furthermore, there is no room for him in the bullpen as presently configured. I predict that Webb will not break with the club. I think he will likely have continued problems with his arm slot and mental hangups so that we might not see him until mid-May. Holland is a wildcard but likely a back roto arm. Hunter is a #5 but has the capacity to pitch 200 innings but his FIP will likely be in the 4.8-4.9 range. Kirkman needs to work on his command vs RHH and his changeup. Without improvement in those 2 areas, he will likely work out of the pen in 2011. Omar Beltre is a safe bet to be a DL baby for 2011, so it would be safer to move him to the pen. Scheppers is a wildcard and you would think that he would only contribute as a starter no sooner than July as he needs innings. Hurley will be on an innings limit for 2011 as he has been out for 2 years so he would only be likely to contribute out of the pen in the second half and needs innings in the first half to work the rust off. And don't forger about his terrible flyball and HR rates. Given that there is no room in the bullpen for any of these guys they all might be more likely to start some games for TX in 2011 than relieve, which is a little unnerving given the issues that each one brings to the table.

For a contending club, this starting rotation has too much variability built into probable outcomes for my taste. I would much rather pay money for a couple of mid-roto vets, move Feliz to the #5 spot (or Holland or Hunter) and move all of the rest of these other back roto prospects to the bullpen. So having older guys like Oliver and Rhoads and Francisco in the pen blocks any opportunities for young AAA starters with a good 2-pitch mix who can contribute right away and work their way into the rotation down the line.

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